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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

Holy hell lol
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Started a model run banter thread pretty self explanatory. Let's see how this goes.

Note this thread is mainly for the 12z and 0z run when traffic peaks. Don't get offended if your post is moved, I think this is much better than the alternative of handing out warnings and bans. If anyone thinks the idea sucks let's me know and we can figure something else out. Just want to cut back on the banter since we are getting complaints and posts are coming in more rapidly

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SD said:
What's 100dm between friends. That change out west is crazy but it certainly lines up more with the 12z eps

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Yeah the GEFS should be quite entertaining in a few. This run, accurate or not though shows the potential for some serious cold. What more can you ask for at this lead
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
Yeah the GEFS should be quite entertaining in a few. This run, accurate or not though shows the potential for some serious cold. What more can you ask for at this lead
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I like how the gfs retrogrades the trough axis from the east coast toward the Mississippi river in time. I think that the potential is certainly there for a nice storm mid month leading into Christmas. I would be beyond excited to have snow on the ground Christmas morning

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SD said:
I like how the gfs retrogrades the trough axis from the east coast toward the Mississippi river in time. I think that the potential is certainly there for a nice storm mid month leading into Christmas. I would be beyond excited to have snow on the ground Christmas morning

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I've also noticed the SER is making an appearance but not in a necessary disruptive way. I believe Jon posted a tweet last year of a gif that actually showed how the SER helped to amplify the wave leading into the January 6 storm last year. Obviously some warmer than desired temps ruined it but the effect of the SER was unique in the setup
 
Recurving western Pacific typhoon ignites a huge RWT downstream over the Pacific-North American sectors this run, hence as mentioned earlier, the waves downstream of this become super amped which is why you're seeing a ridiculous arctic outbreak over the east-central US...
 
Classic downstream wave amplification in association w/ a typhoon recurve and onto a pattern that's already pretty amplified in its own right and one that's throwing cold air into North America as is would have ginormous cold shot written all over it
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This Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave that's forecast to cross the Pacific and potentially aid in TCG in the West Pac next week, which could of course just make our long range pattern that much better than it probably will be, has already produced 2 tropical cyclones in the Indian Ocean, one of which is designated 3B. Definitely a pretty storm as it crosses into the Bay of Bengal... The idea here is that this CCKW has already shown its capable of producing TCs, with a few already having formed in a climatologically less conducive portion of the global tropics makes the potential for a typhoon recurve in the West Pac even more legitimate...
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What Anthony is alluding to here is a return to -AAM juxtaposed in the mid-high latitudes, a configuration that helped to get the ball rolling wrt the current blocking regime, it's going to make yet another return in a week or so, which only increases the confidence for persistence of intensification of the high latitude blocking over Greenland, the North Pacific, & Arctic...
We're definitely trying to hit the jackpot for a cold pattern in the longer term...
 
Webberweather53 said:
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What Anthony is alluding to here is a return to -AAM juxtaposed in the mid-high latitudes, a configuration that helped to get the ball rolling wrt the current blocking regime, it's going to make yet another return in a week or so, which only increases the confidence for persistence of intensification of the high latitude blocking over Greenland, the North Pacific, & Arctic...
We're definitely trying to hit the jackpot for a cold pattern in the longer term...
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thank you for distilling this 'utter jibberish' to my feeble mind into some sense....
 
I'm interested in figuring out why the GFS is able to dramatically change so much at H5 between runs over the last couple of days. I get what it's doing, but what is it sniffing & processing to allow such run variances on it's OP versus the GEFS?

It makes one wonder if it's just part of the "runs 4 times a day thing" or if it sees something that is plausible. If it's the later, a lot of wind will be taken out of our sails before Winter even gets going.
 
Shawn said:
I'm interested in figuring out why the GFS is able to dramatically change so much at H5 between runs over the last couple of days. I get what it's doing, but what is it sniffing & processing to allow such run variances on it's OP versus the GEFS?

It makes one wonder if it's just part of the "runs 4 times a day thing" or if it sees something that is plausible. If it's the later, a lot of wind will be taken out of our sails before Winter even gets going.
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good question actually.. think it will come down GEFS being a mean average of data run through, rather than a single set of data.
 
insane how one run is cold here and the next isn't.... tonight's runs would put us into top 10 latest freezes after all this hype about cold. Yay. Not. lol
 
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This is flirting very badly with an overrunning event for someone of the frozen department.
 
Only positivity from now on! 6z GFS is great! Super cold and another blast of vodka air after a big storm at the end of its run!
 
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