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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

SnowNiner said:
That's where my concern is. This may be more of an issue for us folks east of the mountains in the Carolinas (in the CAD regions), but all too often, I watch as the High pressure to my north scoots off the east coast and takes my cold with it leaving my winter storm a cold, cold rain. Or, if we do get a winter storm, the high still is not entrenched deep enough to get all snow, thus the sleet fests we've been having the last several years in CLT. However with a good solid -NAO, we get good confluence from the Northeast and the highs stay more locked in. Yes we can get fortunate with good timing without it, but I'd love to be able to slow everything down to make it more likely my peanut butter (cold) meets up with my jelly (moisture).
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How can there be a fast flow with blocking?
 
When these warm monster folks start to show something like this, and given other recent models, the mind begins to wonder two things: 1) Can it maybe, actually, perhaps really be bona fide this time, and 2) If so, for how long?

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Tarheel1 said:
How can there be a fast flow with blocking?
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Fast flow is actually possible with blocking but it's far from the norm. This faster flow would typically occur near the end of a blocking highs' lifetime as it breaks and disperses its energy downstream into the jet core at its own expense. Another case where this is possible even with high latitude blocking, at least in the southern branch is during a warm ENSO episode, Pacific MJO event, or conducive mid latitude momentum flux deposition. Additionally, if a high latitude blocking ridge is far enough removed from the jet core further south, then the flow can undercut it pretty easily and thus you end up with a transient pattern despite high latitude blocking. Any one of these pattern configurations are possible but they don't occur with much regularity, the latter of these though does occur somewhat frequently over the North Pacific. Despite similar planetary vorticity advections for the same Rossby wave, the higher zonal asymmetry evident in the Pacific jet relative to the Atlantic makes retrogading, cutoff blocking highs more frequent there. This also means the Pacific jet cuts underneath these North Pacific blocking highs and restores a transient pattern thru this physical mechanism more often as opposed to the Atlantic
 
WeatherWatch said:
GFS is stuck at hr 96, anyone else?
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Have no fear because the 18Z GFS is very cold in the SE US and is easily the coldest yet in the 11-15 day period with 5 day averages of a whopping 12 F colder than normal! That would very likely mean 1-2 days within that 5 day period of more than 20 colder than normal!
 
Gfs is so cold and active, but suppressed, so active at 324 if it wasn’t suppressed would’ve been a Fantasy storm (it actually shows a blob of snow in NFla at 324
 
NorthGaWinter4 said:
Gfs is so cold and active, but suppressed, so active at 324 if it wasn’t suppressed would’ve been a Fantasy storm (it actually shows a blob of snow in NFla at 324
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Too cold and suppressed is a good look this far out for any potential Wintry events. Likely will verify a bit warmer, and (IF) there is a storm, it will trend Northward with it's precipitation shield.
 
If you aren't ok with this look at day 15 on the eps then you will never be satisfied. I like the fact the eps starts to retrograde the pattern a bit by d15 across the us which would give us a better shot at a SW flow aloft and some wintry weather.
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