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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

I pretty much ignore the GFS until 3-5 days of an event (for pattern change, wintry precip etc.) and go with the Euro out to 7-10 as being more likely to show real changes. When they agree in the 7-10 that is the most likely result, until then trust the King. We have been down this road so many times and we still tend to forget it when the GFS jumps on something the EURO doesn't show whether it be warmth or cold. In longer periods, 12-30, it is a total crap shoot for the most part
 
MichaelJ said:
I pretty much ignore the GFS until 3-5 days of an event (for pattern change, wintry precip etc.) and go with the Euro out to 7-10 as being more likely to show real changes. When they agree in the 7-10 that is the most likely result, until then trust the King. We have been down this road so many times and we still tend to forget it when the GFS jumps on something the EURO doesn't show whether it be warmth or cold. In longer periods, 12-30, it is a total crap shoot for the most part
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The pattern change is already in motion it's the downstream impacts that take a while to be felt. Pattern changes don't just happen in a few days they take time . The gfs and Euro are on the same page ....
 
Webberweather53 said:
As usual, JB is going all in on an I-20 corridor white xmas. :rolleyes::weenie:
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All in for 2010 repeat!!!! The JB special lol
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whatalife said:
Although we did get snow on the 26th in 2010... but yes he is full of it


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JB has feelings too! Y'all be nice!
 
I still feel within this cold pattern coming up, that someone or a southeast boardwide event will happen, "Frozen" that is. Theres so much potential here, much more than the last few years. We deserve something good, its been to long. We are over due for a ICE/SNOW storm.
 
Hard not to notice the deeper Aleutian trough in the extend range on the EPS (likely attributable to the recurving WP typhoon) and the weaker trough downstream (at least momentarily) over the eastern US... While the longwave trough is weaker, the Aleutian low-PNA ridge combo will squash the SE US ridge like a pancake. Definitely has that mid-late winter NINO look...
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This tropical cyclone could be a huge fly in the ointment down the line in our neck of the woods especially as we get close to the 3rd week of the month & models may not be able to resolve the track, intensity and extratropical interaction that occurs w/ 94W...
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tennessee storm said:
thats going to be the big story after this winter is over... dry... dry... dry... we dont get moisture this winter and spring.... look out next summer... blazzing plus drought
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Climatologically speaking, the classical NINA storm track up the lower MS, Tennessee and Ohio Valleys usually doesnt get going until late winter, of course by then it's not as favorable in a large-scale sense for huge snowstorms in this bgd state but as many know, this isn't true for severe weather and tornado outbreaks
 
Webberweather53 said:
Definitely has that mid-late winter NINO look...
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That's one of the biggest takeaways for me. This has the appearance of a mature, late-winter pattern, and it doesn't take long to become established. Many times we see sharp troughs that are transient and it takes all winter to get this type of broad based trough. Then we have to deal with cutting lows for a time as well. Looks like the teleconnections are going to really help us out. I'm excited to see what it might produce for us while we are still in a festive mood!
 
Webberweather53 said:
This tropical cyclone could be a huge fly in the ointment down the line in our neck of the woods especially as we get close to the 3rd week of the month & models may not be able to resolve the track, intensity and extratropical interaction that occurs w/ 94W...
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What could possibly be the fly in the ointment with this tropical cyclone?
 
Webberweather53 said:
This tropical cyclone could be a huge fly in the ointment down the line in our neck of the woods especially as we get close to the 3rd week of the month & models may not be able to resolve the track, intensity and extratropical interaction that occurs w/ 94W...
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So, basically, there could be a system that brings a significant weather event(s) that the models aren't able to "detect." There could be a significant winter storm between days 8-15 or so, but we won't know it until several days prior of the event(s). Isn't what that means?
 
WeatherWatch said:
So, basically, there could be a system that brings a significant weather event(s) that the models aren't able to "detect." There could be a significant winter storm between days 8-15 or so, but we won't know it until several days prior of the event(s). Isn't what that means?
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No, I take that as invest 94 could blow our pattern up and screw everything up. Has nothing to do with a winter storm
 
0z EPS control still has winter precipitation potential days 9-10. A very weak LP (1020mb) develops over the northwestern GOM but it is being "crushed" by the northern stream. At least the potential is still there, we still have a good ways to go.
 
Pattern showing on the models for December looks great, and they are in agreement. Cold with lots of energy flying around. Looks like a good setup for winter storms. Of course, you can have the best players on the field and still end up not getting the win. Just have to wait and see.
 
Storm5 said:
No, I take that as invest 94 could blow our pattern up and screw everything up. Has nothing to do with a winter storm
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Well, the last sentence of that tweet says, "could spark some volatility in the medium-range model U.S. during the 11-15d period."
 
If you're wondering about the Pacific tropical action and how it can impact our weather. Go back a few pages and read Webbers posts . He discussed this very topic a few days ago
 
WeatherWatch said:
Well, the last sentence of that tweet says, "could spark some volatility in the medium-range model U.S. during the 11-15d period."
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Volatility is referencing the potential pattern change not a specific event. Webb states this could be a fly in the ointment, recall back during hurricane season he elaborated in great detail how recurving typhoons effect the upper pattern, planetary wave breaks, etc etc that effect east coast troughs/ridges. I think the fly in the ointment is the uncertainty of what lies ahead cold/torch/normal due to a recurving typhoon that models just can't resolve. Proceed with caution...

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