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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

wow so saying you really need vast snowcover down into the middle of the states is a good comment and i am wrong for showing that isnt always the case.......and get called crazy even, time for me to stop posting and just read.
 
BillT said:
wow so saying you really need vast snowcover down into the middle of the states is a good comment and i am wrong for showing that isnt always the case.......and get called crazy even, time for me to stop posting and just read.
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You don't have to asinine about my response I'm just relaying facts to you as they are. All of what I just said doesn't also go without saying the March 1993 superstorm was one of the strongest extratropical cyclones ever observed in our portion of the Western Hemisphere, the intensity of the precipitation and dynamic cooling it generated was exceptionally anomalous... Storms like that are the exception not the rule
 
Webberweather53 said:
You know that old saying it's not about what you said but about what you didn't say? Yes, no one (besides maybe weatherwatch earlier in the past week or so) has come out and said there could be a storm as soon as the pattern changes, but the overall vibe by many and those aren't as familiar w/ general pattern evolution (even when a great setup is likely abound somewhere down the road) need to lower their expectations a bit...
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No, I didn't say there was going to be a storm right away. At one point, I said that some storms will cut, and some will come along in the southern stream. Also, with storms that cut, sometimes storms can come up along the frontal boundary from the cutter, while the deeper cold air is progressing southward. The east is favorable for storminess with a -NAO and strong blocking.

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WeatherWatch said:
No, I didn't say there was going to be a storm right away. At one point, I said that some storms will cut, and some will be come along in the southern stream. Also, with storms that cut, sometimes storms can come up along the frontal boundary from the cutter, while the deeper cold air is progressing southward. The east is favorable for storminess with a -NAO and strong blocking.

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Ok lol whatever you say... You don't think I already know all of this ?
 
From Judah Cohen's twitter page
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Everybody ... deep breath ... now exhale ... deep breath again ... now exhale

Everybody seems ramped because we're seeing some stuff on models that we've not seen in a long time. Understandable that emotions are high. But no need to let that excitement morph into quibbling about what may or may not ultimately happen ... :cool:

Now, as to the road ahead, this looks enticing ...

sfc_count_sup814_temp.gif


and there may be a better than average chance of some SE precip in there (which at least is a start) ...

sfc_count_sup814_prec.gif


exhale again ...

Off the soap box and back to working ...
 
WeatherWatch said:
No, I didn't say there was going to be a storm right away. At one point, I said that some storms will cut, and some will be come along in the southern stream. Also, with storms that cut, sometimes storms can come up along the frontal boundary from the cutter, while the deeper cold air is progressing southward. The east is favorable for storminess with a -NAO and strong blocking.

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wont be storm for a while to be honest out of this pattern.... boring pattern yoou ask me.... cooler yeah
 
I don't recall reading anywhere where Webber said it can't snow unless there's a snowpack just to the north and west. So where exactly is the disagreement? If it doesn't seem intuitively logical that a snow pack immediately in the direction of the cold air source region is a good thing and is obviously a useful ingredient for a SE winter storm, then I don't know what to tell you. I don't see anybody making that case either. So, I'm not sure where the disagreement is.
 
As much as i want snow, im willing to wait for the right timing. Im glad were headed to fantastic pattern change and also around Christmas time, how long has it been since we had a cold Christmas? We will get our storm soon just be patient, if i spelled that right lol. Another thing, lets not get so emotional and raped up and upset over "snowcover" or "boring pattern" as some say lol. This pattern change coming gets me excited for whats to come. One things for sure the cold is coming. Lets have fun.
 
Anyway, the trends of recurring blocking and PV development in eastern Canada are definitely encouraging. My gut feeling is that the pattern will take some time to produce a winter storm here. Getting cold nearby is the first step IMO, and that is starting to look likely. Let's build the snowpack to the north and get some high pressure in here and we'll be in bidness. :)
 
Rain Cold said:
I don't recall reading anywhere where Webber said it can't snow unless there's a snowpack just to the north and west. So where exactly is the disagreement? If it doesn't seem intuitively logical that a snow pack immediately in the direction of the cold air source region is a good thing and is obviously a useful ingredient for a SE winter storm, then I don't know what to tell you. I don't see anybody making that case either. So, I'm not sure where the disagreement is.
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i pointed out an EXCEPTION to that general rule......and indeed Mr. Webber is implying there cant be a snow right after the pattern changes, i did read all of his posts.....i agree having snowcover to the n and nw really helps the possibility of snow in the se, i also agree 1993 was a very UNusual storm, but since it did happen and there was no snowcover close to bama, 93 shows strange weather can and does happen..........i did disagree when shown the snowcover that the post saying i was wrong was NOT backed up by showing NO snowcover within 1000 miles of central bama...the rebuttal post showed my post was accurate....not here to argue here to learn and share info when i have some to share, so in summary i simply state it is possible to get a large storm in the SE with very little snow cover to our n or nw......POSSIBLE, not likely in fact a large snow storm is the SE is "never" likely but always a possibility....those that read this TY.
 
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