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Pattern December Dud 👀

KyloG said:
This is one of the warmest patterns for the conus that I can remember....trop pv consolidated and just off the pole in the worst spot. Good news is the pattern literally can't get worse..so maybe things turn up from here.

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Beautiful -NAO. 🙄
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
The only thing getting trapped under that -NAO are the suckers that think it’s going to snow at their house
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Pretty much, we likely don't snow if we trap something under that but all of this winter is over lawn mower go vroom golf shots go splash talk turns into low to mid 50s and lol
 
75F under Sunny Skies & very light winds.. (We had Heavy Fog this Morning)..
Perfect Golf Weather here on the Coast

I wouldn't be Surprised if @Shaggy , (wasn't playing Hooky & is out on the Greens today)

Or Fishing..
I Went down to the Surf & Sand Early this Morning..

Once the Fog started clearing,,, the bite stopped..
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SD said:
Pretty much, we likely don't snow if we trap something under that but all of this winter is over lawn mower go vroom golf shots go splash talk turns into low to mid 50s and lol
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There’s always a risk of undercutting like that happening and keeping temps moderated in the southeastern us when your block is centered that far north into Canada. We really need a cut off upper low to dig and meander around the SW US or south-central plains to get this blocking ridge rooted into the subtropics.
 
Don’t get the moaning and groaning, most ens (the GEFS is rather unimpressive given it looks like it drops something in the SW which makes the STR stronger in the east) already show the western ridge returning by new years already. The warm up was kinda seen a while back pretty easily, we actually kinda delayed it a bit with this the pre Christmas cold 🤷🏽‍♂️ womp oof pattern is suppose to stay cold entirety of winter womp oof unrealistic expectations 86D1A83E-AB44-4324-B1A4-C0422AED8F88.gif60E1D996-793D-4327-9737-0119F33F2192.gif
 
The way the GFS OP dislodges all of that bottled up cold at the pole to the opposite side of the northern hemisphere to start January is incredible. The anti Christmas miracle. Best of luck undoing that if it happens. Which it won’t. But it might.IMG_0656.gif
 
06z EURO AI says we are cooked

Barrow Alaska making a modest run at its record low of -56F (set back in February of 1924) towards the end of the run
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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
The way the GFS OP dislodges all of that bottled up cold at the pole to the opposite side of the northern hemisphere to start January is incredible. The anti Christmas miracle. Best of luck undoing that if it happens. Which it won’t. But it might.View attachment 156144
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lts on an island by itself. Save maybe the CFS. Everything looks improved to me today LR, except GFS.
We are getting ready to spend Fri-Wed at or below normal. We caught an above normal day today finally here ( with a shower mixed in) and should have one tomorrow.
Greensboro sitting at -4.4 BN, Fayeteville, RockyMount -2.4 BN. Then there's RDU only like -1.4 LOL with its inferno located sensors.
 
So for you guys who are way more skilled than I, what's NYC looking like for 12/28-1/3? Kid and I will be up there for concerts and maybe a knicks game and sightseeing...
 
Don’t be surprised even as the pattern changes favorably to an eastern trough with perhaps a in-situ -NAO & possibly -EPO, that the first few systems are cutters with rain and severe weather over the southern us.

Just trying to keep expectations in check. We usually need to let patterns like this cook for a bit before we get hit
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
The way the GFS OP dislodges all of that bottled up cold at the pole to the opposite side of the northern hemisphere to start January is incredible. The anti Christmas miracle. Best of luck undoing that if it happens. Which it won’t. But it might.View attachment 156144
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Wow! That’s a SE Ridge I’ll tell my grandkids about! Nina winter rock!
 
suppression (yes I'm going too say it..
ONLY if We can pop a Coastal Low,, Maybe a X~Mas magic..
<-Has bet with said Misses,, (even if it's mood flakes)..
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
This hasn’t been the snowiest Dec in a while, but it’s definitely been the coldest in a long long time. EC AI early next week has wind chills in the lower teens and lows in the upper teens. Pretty cold. These are generally great snowmaking conditions as well just saying 🤷🏽‍♂️ View attachment 156154View attachment 156155
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Rare to see these types of cold blasts that target only the ne. Been a while
 
I've been keeping tabs on the EC AI over the northeast the past several weeks. I am not impressed regardless of what it's H5 scores have been. It has consistently been worse/less consistent than the operational ECMWF. We'll see how this one plays out but something to consider down the line.
ec-aifs_apcpn24_neus_fh84_trend.gif

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FallsLake said:
0z Canadian total freezing rain for December 26:
View attachment 156196

If the setup panned out, I could see this spreading at least into our foothills locations.
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It wouldn't take too much to move the totals on that map a bit further south into the Foothills of N.C. While those totals do not scream devastating ice storm, that would be an inconvenience to those who live there.
 
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The anti winter look. During the ice age a low pressure dominant look like this might have worked out nicely. Now, it’s just a hot pacific burp blown across the continental US IMG_0671.png
 
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