Y'all failed....
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Pattern December Dud 👀
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Wonder how we can ---- this up. Starting to see the western ridging return near end of ensembles now. Just not enthused for snow chances until we get a storm within 72-96 hours. Tough couple years…
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It’s way too warm beforehand. The initial return of that trough will likely be some sort of big occluded system that cuts up into the Lakes or so and brings chances of rain/storms and/or severe weather to the SE US. We are going to need to let this next pattern simmer for a bit (probably at least a week) before we have a real chance at a storm
Man this needs to just go away or do something special for someone.
Stop with the tease.
Stop with the tease.
NCSNOW
Member
7 day forecast looks like our weekend wedgie is breaking down this morning ( fog Bowl ) outside. We rocket above Normal Tues and Wed. Front knocks us back down Thurs into Fri. Saturday and espeacilly Sunday could be the coldest days of the year so far.
I'm gonna wait till Wednesday this week and decide what, if, how many days to schedule tee times next week.
One way or the other I'm coming out on top of the weather. If the weather cant whip up a few flakes , frozen , then Ill just chase the white ball.
I'm gonna wait till Wednesday this week and decide what, if, how many days to schedule tee times next week.
One way or the other I'm coming out on top of the weather. If the weather cant whip up a few flakes , frozen , then Ill just chase the white ball.
not holding my breath but that signal this weekend is slowly returning on the EPS 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The general stage is being set for some sort of severe weather outbreak over the southern-eastern us after Christmas.
Big pacific jet extension then a collapse and a transition into a colder pattern in early January will require shortening wavelengths and strong cyclones/troughs to use up the background westerly momentum.
Probably will get at least one big storm system that occludes up into the lakes or so and sets the table for the Hudson Bay vortex again.
We’re pretty mild beforehand, won’t have much of an issue getting good instability pretty far to the north for this time of year too
Big pacific jet extension then a collapse and a transition into a colder pattern in early January will require shortening wavelengths and strong cyclones/troughs to use up the background westerly momentum.
Probably will get at least one big storm system that occludes up into the lakes or so and sets the table for the Hudson Bay vortex again.
We’re pretty mild beforehand, won’t have much of an issue getting good instability pretty far to the north for this time of year too
This one is coming back for the NE. They get there NW trend unlike us 
They put some snow in my grid. At 51 degrees, it really is a Christmas miracle 
GolfishardIknowit70
Member
Doesn't shortening wavelengths usually occur beginning of winter or end of winter, or am I way off kilter? Lol
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whew
couldn't draw up a better trend
also, we're at a spot where even ticks better at 5h will have an outsized impact at the surface bc of the little feedbacks that occur with the baroclinicity off the coast. excited for the 12z.
don't think this is a storm for most, i will be leveraging my geographic advantage with this storm, but still a good amount of time left
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Yeah even we had a few decent members on 6z. Good news is timeframe is within all EPS runs at this point.
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Yep. I heavily debated trying to talk my family into staying in BOS another week and would have if it were only a few extra days and not like 7. This isn't far off from a big deal for them.
severestorm
Member
The 540 line barely reaches Chicago.
Unfortunately all this trend does is delay the low level cold air advection, so it's pretty much hopeless as usual. As myself and others have said for a while now, the antecedent conditions suck and there's no fixing it.
The 540 line is the least of our problems. It also has very little utility in precip type forecasting around here.
P.S. In the map I was showing, that was geopotential height not thickness. The 540 thickness line valid at the same time is across western NC and yet we still are far too warm to snow in the low levels, just further proving my point that the 540dm thickness line is not very useful in precip type forecasting (it looks at the entire 1000-500 mb layer thickness) whereas we often struggle with either low level temperatures and/or small warm noses in the 850-700 mb levels which is why the 1000-850 (hello my username) and 850-700 mb partial thickness evaluation is more useful.
Start the thread.
The 540dm is great for places further to the North, not dealing with as much warm air advection out of the Gulf or even the Atlantic.
When we see the 540 dipping into the deep South, it's usually a sign of a potent Arctic air mass overall.
With that said, down here, the 540dm isn't always needed to get Wintry weather. The moisture source we have, while bringing warm air advection, leads to a lot more precipitation that can lead to dynamical cooling and all kinds of other fun.
Anyways, when I see the 540dm line in the deep South, aside from a cutoff upper level low, I worry more about suppression/dry weather more than anything. Although the stronger short waves can lead to nice overrunning setups.
When we see the 540 dipping into the deep South, it's usually a sign of a potent Arctic air mass overall.
With that said, down here, the 540dm isn't always needed to get Wintry weather. The moisture source we have, while bringing warm air advection, leads to a lot more precipitation that can lead to dynamical cooling and all kinds of other fun.
Anyways, when I see the 540dm line in the deep South, aside from a cutoff upper level low, I worry more about suppression/dry weather more than anything. Although the stronger short waves can lead to nice overrunning setups.
we don't get snowstorms anymore we just get to stare at whatever this look is
nice macro trends under the hood if you want a miracle, although the jump to a more positive tilt doesn't help
Couple GEFS members got excited. Couldn't possibly mean any less to me but, there's nothing else to look at.
i think i'm going to be a little more perked up than the rest of the board being in richmond. honestly though, a few more solid hits than i thought there would be and it makes me curious on what the eps has in store
member 20 is a monster
I do wonder if we will be able to build some type of pseudo or true temporary -nao. Lots of bn heights across the Atlantic under the big + height anom over E Canada and S Greenland. Pretty active wave train/cutter parade the week after Christmas to start to run into that construct and being to develop a vortex over the lakes and northeast which would begin shifting the storm track south. That said models have intermittently tried to do this over the last few weeks with limited success but if you want to find a way to cut off what would be an otherwise warm look there you go.
Yeah as much as we don't like cutters a repetitive wave train of cutters does have a tendency to feed off of itself and become self limiting
Some pretty insane anoms in Canada 
Haven’t the long range models trended colder? Not saying that’s the staple for all of winter but everyone is staying in the fence of disregarding the long range! I have just succumbed to the fact that it will be year 3 with no snow in my zip code! Hard to be disappointed with no expectations!
My goodness. Folks tossing in the towel on December 16th. What you say could be true but its a long way from being over.
Most ens retract the NP trough pretty quick now. A step to greatness
It doesn't help that Hudson Bay is STILL mostly open in the middle of December for building home-grown Canadian cold.
GolfishardIknowit70
Member
Retract the jet some, we be good I think
Mahomeless
Member
Our snow hope for the kids in Columbus, OH fell apart for the next week.....bummed!
Drizzle Snizzle
Member
But it may snow in Columbus on Friday. Are you going to the Vols/Buckeyes game ?
It's not just us. Who has had a borderline significant winter storm in the eastern 2/3rds of the country this winter? We're more than 1/6th through meteorological winter. Long range doesn't have anything in the queue, anywhere really.
look at the hazards map. this feels like a map you'd see around halloween.
look at the hazards map. this feels like a map you'd see around halloween.
1st half of December Pattern / Temperatures / Snowfall
Technically near my avg dec snow for the month of dec (0.7) so I truly don’t have complaining rights. Considering it turned everything into a winter wonderland to
rburrel2
Member
Just my two cents, but a blazing Canada can be good for us. Especially in prime climo time. I think as we get closer in time you’d see at least some moderately cold air underneath that. I’ll gladly take Chicago 850mb temps of +2C as long as we’re -2C and ripping snow.
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Serious question, how? If the source regions are starting out 20 degrees above average I can't see how that's good. We always have temp issues anyway.