It's like having two baseball teams riding around on their busses with blind drivers looking for the ball field. But it's better than no teams and no ball field like as is usually the case.
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Pattern December Dud 👀
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
They are going to phase. I demand it and I won’t take no for an answer this time.
Kinda like the Navy/ARMY Game just played? /Sarc
Have two booked nowCruisetime
I'm still not big on this (at least not yet), but I'm pretty surprised no one has posted this trend on the Euro yet.
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
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First CAD event of the winter will bring some freezing rain, sleet and light snow to the region. Not sure I expect to see any snow here in Blacksburg but can't bet against the brilliant minds of NWS Blacksburg (I've shadowed there haha).
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The Pacific onslaught on this GFS run is just insane. The MJO alone isn’t going to fix that problem. The MJO moving out of the Maritime Continent and across the Pacific (6-7-8) is a process that adds momentum into the Pacific Jet. Having the jet already energized isn’t a good starting point. So, we need to take a step back there before we can move forward. Something has the jet really energized so far here in early winter. You can see here on the 2nd image where the subtropical jet along 30N was weaker than normal from late Oct to early Nov, but has been stronger than normal since late Nov. The MJO has been in 5-6 during that time, not where you would expect to see an extended Pac Jet. Also, there hasn't been strong + East Asian Mtn Torque either. * Throws hands up *
A lot of this pacific onslaught is also attributable to Indian Ocean convective anomalies, which actually teleconnects to an extended Pacific jet & +EPO/Alaskan vortex in December & is a major contributor to the +U in the subtropics.
Turning off &/or muting the Indian Ocean's influence will be key to slowing the subtropical Jet over East Asia & getting the Pacific jet to retract in this particular case, especially in the absence of El Niño.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Still generally pretty good agreement overall between the extended GEFS & Euro weeklies w/ where things are headed in early-mid January. Not sure if I buy the bigger SE ridge on the extended GEFS.
NCSNOW
Member
0Z Icon is cold throughout SE on this frame. Just not enough energy this run
SimeonNC
Member
Does the Icon still have a warm bias when it comes to 2m temps because wow
NCSNOW
Member
Don’t sweat the details. It’s a Jimmy Christmas extravaganza 
I feel like we do this little rigamarole every winter but I’ll just go ahead and say it anyway. The Canadian almost nuked ENC on that run
Now is the part where y’all chase it to verification and talk about how if it were “X number of miles closer to shore it would be the storm of the century.” And “coastal precip shield should be more expansive.”
I’ll try my best to bitter cast this Christmas miracle to your doorstep.
Now is the part where y’all chase it to verification and talk about how if it were “X number of miles closer to shore it would be the storm of the century.” And “coastal precip shield should be more expansive.”
I’ll try my best to bitter cast this Christmas miracle to your doorstep.
I’m looking and everything is just so damn fast. NASCAR flow. It’s gross
The most beautiful part of winter in the SE. You can always depend on 33.6 and lgt rain.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Nomanslandva
Member
32 and mostly rain here. Did see a few rain drops bouncing a few minutes ago.
NCSNOW
Member
Last Night Euro says get in the boat. Off to Church 33-34 light shower in bound here soon. BF said it well above!
Yes sir. 36.4 this morning with light liquid. SE at its best.
Hey Mark good to see you posting. Had the same temp to your North. 36° light rain. My least favorite weather to say the least.
Op euro dropped mby below 40 Friday night and didn't go back above until midday Christmas day. Nothing else has been that cold so far
Twister
Member
Brad Warminster!
Christmas Day is trending warmer and wetter for the Carolinas.
------------- Meteorologist
18m ·Christmas Day is trending warmer and wetter for the Carolinas.
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
It has surprisingly warmed up to 33 here so not much in terms of freezing rain now. I see a little sleet accumulation however.
12z GFS just won’t let this go away.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Don't fall for it, it's a trap
^^^^That's something.
12z GFS 850 temps:
12z GFS 850 temps:
In the old days we’d be excited about this look, but can’t remember the last time we had a true nw trend inside a week to help us
At this point, I'm just hoping Christmas is not too warm.
12 GFS dew points, Christmas Eve morning:
We just need that high to trend westward a little to keep the cold locked in one more day. Otherwise, the kids can break out the shorts to ride those new bikes.
12 GFS dew points, Christmas Eve morning:
We just need that high to trend westward a little to keep the cold locked in one more day. Otherwise, the kids can break out the shorts to ride those new bikes.
Lol
Good
41 and cloudy, we are good and wedged here in the upstate
At least it is moving it into 7 and out of the right side where winters here go to die
This is so true. I look at this now and get annoyed but back in the day I’d be like oh yeah and go check ensembles and see half of them with a hit and know we were on our way.
Makeitsnow
Member
Ive always wondered/fantasized about what life would be like if the freezing point of water was 42. Our forever snow/ice drought has me thinking about it more than ever and I've reached the conclusion we would still find a way to get screwed. We would just have endless 43.6 degree rains.
Brother… start the thread.
This is probably a good thing tbh. If we went full fledged into 7-8, the pac jet would stay overextended since those phases favor a extended jet
This is actually not a crazy scenario as the pattern wants to put another big high in the northeast <and> with waviness trying to run into it from the west in the fast Pac flow