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Pattern December Dud 👀
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Here we are in mid-December and Hudson Bay is still mostly ice-free.
The 20th - 24th threat definitely has some legs. Again the biggest problem is things moving too fast as I said before. But given we’re 180 or so hours out .. we’re only a few changes away for something bigger for the SC, NC mid Atlantic folks..
It’s all about timing with this one. It be a great time to have a giant -NAO block right about now lol
It’s all about timing with this one. It be a great time to have a giant -NAO block right about now lol
The CMC has cooked up an interesting look at the end of its run. A building CAD with light overrunning precip.
A bit more entertaining than usual given that's Christmas Eve.
A bit more entertaining than usual given that's Christmas Eve.
1050 HP in a perfect location lol Canadian lol. I wish that was like 2 days out. It's pretty.
NCSNOW
Member
As of Dec 14th. GSO is - 4.4 BN.
Alright, let’s cook.
I tried to look for something to hate about what the Canadian is selling here at the end of its run but I couldn’t. Shucks. Legit cold air modeled into SE Canada.
That 1050 high will be replaced by a 1079 low cutting across Lake Erie in about 11 hours
The Pacific onslaught on this GFS run is just insane. The MJO alone isn’t going to fix that problem. The MJO moving out of the Maritime Continent and across the Pacific (6-7-8) is a process that adds momentum into the Pacific Jet. Having the jet already energized isn’t a good starting point. So, we need to take a step back there before we can move forward. Something has the jet really energized so far here in early winter. You can see here on the 2nd image where the subtropical jet along 30N was weaker than normal from late Oct to early Nov, but has been stronger than normal since late Nov. The MJO has been in 5-6 during that time, not where you would expect to see an extended Pac Jet. Also, there hasn't been strong + East Asian Mtn Torque either. * Throws hands up *
Model could just be wrong. I haven't looked at what the other models are showing, though.The Pacific onslaught on this GFS run is just insane. The MJO alone isn’t going to fix that problem. The MJO moving out of the Maritime Continent and across the Pacific (6-7-8) is a process that adds momentum into the Pacific Jet. Having the jet already energized isn’t a good starting point. So, we need to take a step back there before we can move forward. Something has the jet really energized so far here in early winter. You can see here on the 2nd image where the subtropical jet along 30N was weaker than normal from late Oct to early Nov, but has been stronger than normal since late Nov. The MJO has been in 5-6 during that time, not where you would expect to see an extended Pac Jet. Also, there hasn't been strong + East Asian Mtn Torque either. * Throws hands up *
Euro looks more like my thinking. Energy moving at break neck speed! No way to slow down and build up a good storm for us..
Think the GFS is out to lunch.
Think the GFS is out to lunch.
GolfishardIknowit70
Member
Looking like we got a ways to go still
Winter getting into "February" mode quickly...at least it's cold in Florida #sarcasm...
Nice. Looks chilly down in Playa Del Carmen. We might have to take a trip back down there to escape this heat
There, found it for you lol. I am so sick of 240 hour maps. I still sincerely wonder what type of error keeps occurring in all NWP that always results in these wildly wintery looks for the east and southeastern US that never come to fruition once model error decreases (i.e. shorter lead times).
carolinachaos
Member
Let’s cook like SC did against Clemson! Let’s go!
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tazaroo
Member
I honestly think the GFS is out to lunch here. This has been the theme so far to try to bring the warm hounds in the extended only to reverse as we get closer in time. Let's see how this goes the next few days before we worry about can kicking.
Wudge tomorrow
A sparse few hits on the EPS but nothing to get excited about.
I feel like this is close, but that warmer period 27-2nd is definitely going to be longer. Probably can push all of that out another week or so I bet.
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
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Gotta shift the ridge axis west yall
GolfishardIknowit70
Member
I said that 2 weeks ago lol
GolfishardIknowit70
Member
Bamwx made a tweet about the -epo is coming back quicker than we believe. We shall see
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Drizzle Snizzle
Member
I’ll be surprised if the cold blast lasts until Dec 26th. I’m not even sure it lasts until the 24th.
tennessee storm
Member
Bam is wanting some clicks lol
That’s actually been Webb’s thinking from what I’ve read of his posts
Tarheelwx
Member
18z NAM is a major increase in ice for NC mountain folks.
TW
TW
This looks a lot like the overnight op and AI euro. I guess you can find some enthusiasm that this pattern would likely try to build a -nao in early January but with that pac look it would be a miller b hell. I personally think we are getting into the front part of the window where we are going to need to see positive changes at the end of the runs. If we revisit next week and the day 13-16 range is a train wreck with no signs towards a change or building to a change ill be concernedThe Pacific onslaught on this GFS run is just insane. The MJO alone isn’t going to fix that problem. The MJO moving out of the Maritime Continent and across the Pacific (6-7-8) is a process that adds momentum into the Pacific Jet. Having the jet already energized isn’t a good starting point. So, we need to take a step back there before we can move forward. Something has the jet really energized so far here in early winter. You can see here on the 2nd image where the subtropical jet along 30N was weaker than normal from late Oct to early Nov, but has been stronger than normal since late Nov. The MJO has been in 5-6 during that time, not where you would expect to see an extended Pac Jet. Also, there hasn't been strong + East Asian Mtn Torque either. * Throws hands up *
NCSNOW
Member
43-44 is all we could get out of the sun today. You can feel that 1045HP up in the NE.
On the brightside from a hemispheric perspective the late hours and days of the 12z gefs/geps is where we want to go. It will take time to build the cold but ural ridge, okhotsk/aleutian low, WC ridge is where we want to go
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The Pacific onslaught on this GFS run is just insane. The MJO alone isn’t going to fix that problem. The MJO moving out of the Maritime Continent and across the Pacific (6-7-8) is a process that adds momentum into the Pacific Jet. Having the jet already energized isn’t a good starting point. So, we need to take a step back there before we can move forward. Something has the jet really energized so far here in early winter. You can see here on the 2nd image where the subtropical jet along 30N was weaker than normal from late Oct to early Nov, but has been stronger than normal since late Nov. The MJO has been in 5-6 during that time, not where you would expect to see an extended Pac Jet. Also, there hasn't been strong + East Asian Mtn Torque either. * Throws hands up *
The +U build up here is really coming from the warmer Indo-Pacific Warm Pool fueling more convection over the Indian Ocean to far West Pacific. This extra convection in a mean sense keeps the subtropical jet active by increasing the meridional temperature gradient in the upper troposphere, especially over the Eastern Hemisphere. The polar vortex visits we’ve had earlier this month in eastern N America also helps to flux westerly momentum equatorward explaining the strong southern jet over the Western Hemisphere too
This warmer Warm Pool was one of the main reasons why I wasn’t sold on a classic -PNA type winter overall, even if we eventually try to go to that pattern later down the road in say February.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I think we’re just fine in the longer term.
I could see the reverberating impacts of this jet extension hanging around a bit longer than say the euro weeklies are forecasting, delaying the onset of -PNA later in January perhaps.
I could see the reverberating impacts of this jet extension hanging around a bit longer than say the euro weeklies are forecasting, delaying the onset of -PNA later in January perhaps.
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Yall please listen to the man. Sheesh.
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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Webberweather53
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There are multiple ways to get to the +TNH/-EPO pattern that’s very likely lurking around the corner in January.
The difference between the various model suites atm is more of an onset timing & duration question than a question of will it show up or not.
Most pathways back to some semblance of the stereotypical Nina configuration (-PNA) lead us back to the -EPO/+TNH pattern, meaning we will probably have to go through that at some point here.
What we can’t obviously have is an overextended pacific jet that makes everything very mild in N America, but I don’t think there’s enough additional gas in the tank/westerly momentum to make that happen on a consistent basis going forward especially as the MJO becomes muted by enso as it travels towards the central pacific and western hemisphere. If we were in a legitimate El Niño, I’d feel a lot differently about that.
The difference between the various model suites atm is more of an onset timing & duration question than a question of will it show up or not.
Most pathways back to some semblance of the stereotypical Nina configuration (-PNA) lead us back to the -EPO/+TNH pattern, meaning we will probably have to go through that at some point here.
What we can’t obviously have is an overextended pacific jet that makes everything very mild in N America, but I don’t think there’s enough additional gas in the tank/westerly momentum to make that happen on a consistent basis going forward especially as the MJO becomes muted by enso as it travels towards the central pacific and western hemisphere. If we were in a legitimate El Niño, I’d feel a lot differently about that.
That’s not nothing. Christmas miracle not out of the question 
Need a deeper trough and farther north southern energy and either a much faster southern energy or much slower northern trough.
There’s a wave to our south and a cold airmass right on top of us. Squash city currently. Can we find a way to amplify or phase? Doubt it. But i’ll stand firm in that it’s not nothing