• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern December Dud 👀

Jimmy Hypocracy said:
this is bringing back some old memories. It’s way too soon to know what the pattern will be at new years but I think it’s what we’re all keeping an eye on. I like to see either the EPO or AO go negative around January 1. Preferably both. Give me my cold first then we can worry about the snow around the second week of January.
Click to expand...
Yeah, agree. I'm not trying to be negative. I'm just tired of seeing the same thing every year. And as we get closer in, starting to see depictions of the MJO hitting the wall...again...is frustrating.

I know it's not the be all end all, but the pattern starting to show up in the long range (which I know it's a low skill time frame in terms of predictability), correlates with P6 climatology. It's just frustrating that this seems to happen every year no matter what ENSO state or other background state we're in. It's the same result in the east and southeast.
 
Rain Cold said:
Better score while we can. Euro AI moving toward an ugly pattern out in time. Fits the MJO progression of stalling out in unfavorable phases, as usual in winter. CFS moving steadily in a less favorable direction also for January. At this rate, we're going down the same path as every other winter in the last few years: A few cold shots, followed by crap for days/weeks.

Hopefully, all of that is wrong. But it's not pleasant to see, particularly since there's been an expectation of happy happy joy joy for January. Not feeling the vibes on that yet, though. But maybe it's just PTSD.

View attachment 155872View attachment 155873View attachment 155874
Click to expand...
After this blockbuster cold pattern yall have just had, the cold has to re load! Patience
 
Posting this here, because ice storms are fairly rare here. This is a wedge style Southern ice storm look/accums! Temp is currently 8 degrees and the precip is supposed to start between midnight and 6am. High today of 21IMG_8273.jpegIMG_8274.jpeg
 
Rain Cold said:
Yeah, agree. I'm not trying to be negative. I'm just tired of seeing the same thing every year. And as we get closer in, starting to see depictions of the MJO hitting the wall...again...is frustrating.

I know it's not the be all end all, but the pattern starting to show up in the long range (which I know it's a low skill time frame in terms of predictability), correlates with P6 climatology. It's just frustrating that this seems to happen every year no matter what ENSO state or other background state we're in. It's the same result in the east and southeast.
Click to expand...
I’ve always said this, but @Rain Cold is just a better weather forum version of myself 😂. More diplomatic and well-versed yet still straight to the point. When a real threat exists, you’ll know it because this guy will be ringing the bell (and usually first). We so often share the same sentiment, and this post is exactly how I’m feeling also.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Here's how the ERA-5 Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) MJO Index (OMI) shakes out for NC winter storms since 1940. Looked at (& had to dig up) any winter storm that produced measurable snow east of the mountains or a glaze of ice.

First table here are the daily probabilities of a winter storm, sorted according to ENSO phase. It's actually crazy to see a 20% daily chance of a winter storm during cool neutral ENSO & phase 1 OMI (Western Hemisphere convection).

Phases 4-5-6 of the OMI MJO index tend to be unfavorable overall, while 8-1-2 are generally conducive for wintry weather.

There's also some ENSO sensitivity to these favorable OMI MJO phases. Phase 1 (western hemisphere convection) is better in cold ENSO (like this year), while Phase 2 (Indian Ocean convection) is more favorable in El Niño.

View attachment 155796



This is what the differences look like compared to climatology.

View attachment 155795

View attachment 155793


Here are the total day counts by ENSO phase:

View attachment 155794


https://psl.noaa.gov/mjo/
Click to expand...

Comparing this to the traditional, more popular RMM index & doing something different than I did a few years ago in that I recovered more winter storm cases and looked at the 1 sigma level in the DJFM in RMM like I did w/ OMI (not the 1.0 value in the RMM index), it is pretty apparent that the filtered OMI MJO index is better at discriminating between good and bad patterns for winter storms in NC.

Screenshot 2024-12-13 at 8.27.57 AM.png




Screenshot 2024-12-13 at 8.25.07 AM.png
 
this is gonna be a crazy run for somebody

edit- think this is going to be proof in the pudding for 1300m's point that the shortwave trajectory needs to be absolutely just right or it's going to cut
 
1300m said:
Despite the low probability, with a western ridge that tall this is always a possibility, even if it’s still low at this range.
Click to expand...
i think it's low probability for us, but the gfs has been pretty insistent that an unorthodox meteorological event is going to happen and however that manifests is going to be high impact for soemone. could be us.
 
From my eyes.. the flow is too fast for magic to really happen. It’s so much harder for timing to be right when energy is moving at break neck speed.

GFS was nice but the ensembles are meh. I don’t see this pattern delivering unless we can find a way to slow things up a bit.

Best case in a pattern like this is you can get an upper level low quick diving down and you can get some broken mountain containment stuff (which can certainly be fun) but it would be an isolated few that get in on the action.

Regardless it looks to at least be cold leading up to Christmas and that’s always a good thing to feel like Christmas when it is Christmas. I think if you’re dreaming of a white Christmas .. you may have to keep dreaming lol
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
From my eyes.. the flow is too fast for magic to really happen. It’s so much harder for timing to be right when energy is moving at break neck speed.

GFS was nice but the ensembles are meh. I don’t see this pattern delivering unless we can find a way to slow things up a bit.

Best case in a pattern like this is you can get an upper level low quick diving down and you can get some broken mountain containment stuff (which can certainly be fun) but it would be an isolated few that get in on the action.

Regardless it looks to at least be cold leading up to Christmas and that’s always a good thing to feel like Christmas when it is Christmas. I think if you’re dreaming of a white Christmas .. you may have to keep dreaming lol
Click to expand...
This. We always seem to lose our digging mechanism when it counts. Usually via a wave crashing into the pacific NW. This is just something I’ve observed over the years. It’s hard to get that PNA in your favor and it’s even harder to hold it there long enough for a wave to dig to the correct latitude. It seems to get harder every year.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
This. We always seem to lose our digging mechanism when it counts. Usually via a wave crashing into the pacific NW. This is just something I’ve observed over the years. It’s hard to get that PNA in your favor and it’s even harder to hold it there long enough for a wave to dig to the correct latitude. It seems to get harder every year. Living in the south, it's threading the needle just about any given year.
Click to expand...
Fixed that for ya Jimmy! I think anyone that has lived long enough in the South remember these snow droughts. It only takes one good one to catch up on the law of averages (We are due a good one!) Pulling for a good old fashioned Miller A to deliver the goods in January!
 
Mitch West said:
Anyone know where a write up is on that December 22-24 1993 storm would be? Can't google it without March 1993 spamming the search.
Click to expand...
The little I remember of that is I believe it was a trailing wave on the cold front from the previous system. The snow was gone by Christmas but we did have some snow showers on Christmas night. This is, of course, local to Gaston County.
 
BullCityWx said:
The little I remember of that is I believe it was a trailing wave on the cold front from the previous system. The snow was gone by Christmas but we did have some snow showers on Christmas night. This is, of course, local to Gaston County.
Click to expand...
Got ya. I feel like that one brought a couple inches of snow to the Midlands. No one ever talks about that storm much.
 
Mitch West said:
Anyone know where a write up is on that December 22-24 1993 storm would be? Can't google it without March 1993 spamming the search.
Click to expand...

Mitch West said:
Got ya. I feel like that one brought a couple inches of snow to the Midlands. No one ever talks about that storm much.
Click to expand...
It may have brought a couple of inches to the Midlands. I remember that little storm well. We got 2-3” of snow on the evening of December 23rd in my hometown of Eastman, GA (south central GA). It went back and forth with rain and snow for most of the day before turning to all snow just as it was getting dark (shocking everyone). Nothing like building a snowman on Christmas Eve.
 
whatalife said:
It may have brought a couple of inches to the Midlands. I remember that little storm well. We got 2-3” of snow on the evening of December 23rd in my hometown of Eastman, GA (south central GA). It went back and forth with rain and snow for most of the day before turning to all snow just as it was getting dark (shocking everyone). Nothing like building a snowman on Christmas Eve.
Click to expand...
That's awesome man! Thanks for sharing this. I wish I could find something on this somewhere.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Pack it up boys. At least we’ll build the pack above us View attachment 155890
Click to expand...

I like so far, that we're getting a western ridge, variably this year. But it and the resultant trough always looks to be too far east. Even though like @RainCold said, we're still struggling as usual with the MJO and pacific forcing, for some reason (perhaps the TNH/EPO webb mentions) we want to have a trough and bring in cooler air. A little different than previous years but same result...no snow. Let's see what January brings.
 
Last edited:
Today's Euro weeklies imho have the right overall path going forward here from now through about early-mid February or so, though the exact timing (day to day scales) shouldn't be taken too seriously.

The Nino-esque pattern late month gives way to a -EPO/+TNH after New Years and then we slowly fade into a more stereotypical Nina look as we get closer to February. I think our best chance for scoring a big winter storm this year happens during the -EPO/+TNH phase and/or as it starts to progressively fade into a -PNA & we get moist southwesterly flow aloft to overrun the preceding arctic air mass.

This ought to be a very fun ride.

ecmwf-weeklies-avg-namer-z500_anom_7day-1734048000-1735862400-1738022400-40-1.gif
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top