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Pattern December Dud đź‘€

It's a Manitoba Mauler pattern. It just is

7O0ETXO.gif
 
I cannot unsee that GFS run. Unlikely to happen, but if you want a good snow in mid and eastern Carolinas that is a great way to do it. Manitoba mauler swoops south and then sparks cyclogenesis off the coast of South Carolina
 
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How long exactly has the EC AIFS been honking the horn for the 20th-23rd? It feels like it's been highlighting that period for over a week.

Also can any archivists or anyone with a better memory than tell me when's the last time a model has been this adamant for a storm potential and what was the result?
 
SimeonNC said:
How long exactly has the EC AIFS been honking the horn for the 20th-23rd? It feels like it's been highlighting that period for over a week.

Also can any archivists or anyone with a better memory than tell me when's the last time a model has been this adamant for a storm potential and what was the result?
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I remember Christmas 2010 we had models showing potential pretty early. Was one of the most fun storms I have ever tracked because I believe we lost it a few days before then it came back.
 
204 12/21 00Z 36 22 328 3 0.00 0.00 533 553 -7.9 -21.8 1024.9 100 042SCT106 113BKN229 232OVC310 40 36 20.0
210 12/21 06Z 32 31 16 4 0.02 0.00 528 548 -8.4 -23.1 1025.3 100 -SN 006OVC110 110OVC224 241BKN295 37 31 0.0
216 12/21 12Z 30 28 44 6 0.06 0.00 525 545 -9.0 -26.3 1025.4 100 -SN 000OVC109 109OVC209 234SCT306 32 30 0.5
222 12/21 18Z 31 29 35 10 0.11 0.00 523 542 -9.2 -27.8 1024.3 100 -SN 000OVC109 109OVC179 CLR 31 29 1.6
228 12/22 00Z 26 23 20 12 0.14 0.01 522 543 -9.0 -28.8 1025.7 100 -SN 000OVC110 111OVC136 CLR 31 26 1.5
234 12/22 06Z 23 19 18 14 0.14 0.00 526 544 -9.4 -26.7 1023.3 100 -SN 000OVC108 136BKN172 231BKN287 26 23 5.3
240 12/22 12Z 21 16 9 15 0.15 0.00 527 544 -8.1 -25.3 1021.9 100 -SN 000OVC107 119BKN145 225SCT260 23 20 9.2
246 12/22 18Z 27 19 4 14 0.03 0.00 529 543 -5.7 -24.7 1018.8 98 -SN 000BKN103 119BKN140 CLR 27 21 20.0
252 12/23 00Z 29 19 359 12 0.10 0.00 530 544 -7.2 -25.3 1017.5 100 -SN 015OVC108 115OVC212 226BKN252 30 26 20.0
258 12/23 06Z 24 15 329 10 0.04 0.00 533 545 -5.9 -23.3 1016.1 100 -SN 023OVC102 113OVC209 234SCT252 29 23 20.0
264 12/23 12Z 23 15 311 9 0.01 0.00 533 547 -5.8 -21.6 1017.3 100 -SN 043BKN109 121OVC197 228BKN278 24 23 20.0


Flowers In The Dirt Yes GIF by Paul McCartney
 
pumping the brakes- this (wound up coastal bomb) is probably my least favorite genre of fantasy storm, i think too many things have to go right for it to happen. not a ton of support from other models for this. this isn't happening. cute board fodder though

what gives me optimism is that the models are showing a tendency for sharper, deeper (or cutoff) troughs during this period, the flow is slower and a little more amplified, the trough axis keeps on showing up in a nice area, this period is giving me a nice buzz. two miller lites. our problem has been trough tilt and fast flows the last few years

no need to reinvent the wheel here- i am paying attention to the euro ensembles. i think that a broad window exists that will obviously narrow once shortwave placement is pinned down
 
ILMRoss said:
pumping the brakes- this (wound up coastal bomb) is probably my least favorite genre of fantasy storm, i think too many things have to go right for it to happen. not a ton of support from other models for this. this isn't happening. cute board fodder though

what gives me optimism is that the models are showing a tendency for sharper, deeper (or cutoff) troughs during this period, the flow is slower and a little more amplified, the trough axis keeps on showing up in a nice area, this period is giving me a nice buzz. two miller lites. our problem has been trough tilt and fast flows the last few years

no need to reinvent the wheel here- i am paying attention to the euro ensembles. i think that a broad window exists that will obviously narrow once shortwave placement is pinned down
Click to expand...
Coastals always feel like the 80 yard bomb down the field when you can usually just throw the ten yard pass over and over with an overrunning. You know option #1 has the highest max yield possible but #2 is way way more consistent.
 
Nice way to do it for the central and eastern part of the carolinas. Temporary ridge flex up the rockies drives the shortwave well south, energy encroaching on the WC biases the pattern east so amplification is along or offshore vs inland. My concern is the ridge likely verifies flatter which pushes this all north/east or there's too much energy along the WC and it's a beaches storm at best
 
Just some recent coastals with a similar flavor of how you have to set the pattern up for a big coastal. Gfs is probably most similar to Christmas 2010 with a jan 2000 flavor of the sfc low bombing and slowly inching away as the upper trough pinches off and the system occludes rapidly
Christmas 2010122521.gif

Jan 2000
012415.gif

Jan 2009012000 (1).gif
 
What does the GEFS look like? I know there's apparently no solutions that look like the OP but I'm curious to see if the 12z GEFS to similar to the 6z
 
NCSNOW said:
50+ in Philly/NJ LOL. Maybe the Drones up there flying around are laying the ground work.

View attachment 155828
Click to expand...

Nice to have a clown map to talk about! No fan of late blooming coastals IMBY as they favor the eastern carolinas. It is interesting that the AI Euro and the GFS are honing in on a strong trough around the time frame. I'm I'm in the mid atlantic and NE I'd be feeling pretty good.

Perhaps this is the winter of crazy clippers.
 
BullCityWx said:
Coastals always feel like the 80 yard bomb down the field when you can usually just throw the ten yard pass over and over with an overrunning. You know option #1 has the highest max yield possible but #2 is way way more consistent
Click to expand...

basically how i see it

feel like we get one run a year with a stalled out 986 off hatteras at hour 220ish and then it vanishes
 
I am not the least bit excited about this. The amount of things that would have to go right are just too many and at this range, there's literally a half dozen things that can and probably will change, any one of them killing the chance. No blocking -NAO to slow things down, the southern stream upper low / shortwave has to get left by the initial trough, then picked up by the next trough while also hoping the trailing energy crashing onshore is delayed and doesn't kill the western ridge. Or, we hope the northern stream is strong enough and can dig far enough southwest. How many times have we tracked that into oblivion lately. Maybe this will be our time, but we won't know for another 5-7 days.
ecmwf-deterministic-namer-vort500_z500-1734004800-1734512400-1735041600-20-2.gif
 
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