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Pattern December Dud 👀

It has been the early story of this December in that the ensembles generally have forecast above normal in the later part of their runs only to be humbled as time to verification shortens. For example, today's GEFS for the 22nd versus hour 384 from the sixth.
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And then there is the CFS weekly from12/3. Yeah, that's not happening.
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200 hour teases. We all knew this is what the next run would show.
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At least it did keep the general H5 look similar earlier in the run. At 180, the western ridge looks taller, so it's actually not that bad, I expected worse TBH.
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1300m said:
200 hour teases. We all knew this is what the next run would show.
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At least it did keep the general H5 look similar earlier in the run. At 180, the western ridge looks taller, so it's actually not that bad, I expected worse TBH.
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Euro AI had the general look as well....just not enough amplitude / dive with the ridge-trough. All we can say is that this is a pattern look that can work. It's possible and worth watching.

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griteater said:
Euro AI had the general look as well....just not enough amplitude / dive with the ridge-trough. All we can say is that this is a pattern look that can work. It's possible and worth watching.

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It very well could work, but IMO we’ve had better looks than this at this range that didn’t work out already this year (well at least they didn’t work for some/most including myself haha).
 
1300m said:
It very well could work, but IMO we’ve had better looks than this at this range that didn’t work out already this year (well at least they didn’t work for some/most including myself haha).
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Yeah, I'm not really sure where I am with all that. The prior look(s) did have the added benefit of the Greenland-esque / bootleg(?) -NAO and some split stream action at times, but there always seemed to be a good amount of question as to whether it was going to all come together. Same with this setup too - a lot has to hit right. Guess I just like the big amplification that has been shown at times on the runs. We have some analogs to this that have worked and been good storms - just not the classic gulf low with high to north deal of course. Low chance but worth watching - possible, not probable.
 
griteater said:
Yeah, I'm not really sure where I am with all that. The prior look(s) did have the added benefit of the Greenland-esque / bootleg(?) -NAO and some split stream action at times, but there always seemed to be a good amount of question as to whether it was going to all come together. Same with this setup too - a lot has to hit right. Guess I just like the big amplification that has been shown at times on the runs. We have some analogs to this that have worked and been good storms - just not the classic gulf low with high to north deal of course. Low chance but worth watching - possible, not probable.
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Looking at 204 hours out on the 18z GFS today vs. for the early December threat I'll concede it's about a wash. A little better western U.S. now, a little better Atlantic w/ a pseudo 50/50 low and transitory -NAO then. Just trying to caution folks not to get hyped at this range. It's a trough over the eastern U.S. in winter, of course we're going to watch it and eventually one of these will produce wintry precipitation for someone. I still think Mid-Atlantic and New England are favored in this regime, but it's going to be absolutely critical to keep the western ridge as strong and well-positioned as it is now for those further in the south to be in the game.
 
One of the few big storms I’ve analyzed that worked out in a pattern where a ridge was trying to nose up into Newfoundland was this one from December 1973.

Need the wavelengths to shorten more and for the trough base to dig down towards the Gulf Coast & hope the storm doesn’t cut up the apps (which it likes to do 95+ times out of 100 in this kind of pattern) in order to score.

Yeah it can technically work out great and we should watch it (because why not we are all weenies), but I don’t love the pattern for next weekend yet in all honesty, except in the foothills and mountains perhaps.

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Staring Episode 2 GIF by The Office

Trying to get a trough to dig that far south with the main TPV over Greenland is mission impossible. We either get more northern TPV injection (not withstanding some major reshuffling of players) or New England will be the only ones with a chance.
 
She got way to strung out energy wise and pos/forward leaning several frames before this. Spit a few flakes northern nc. Reality

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FallsLake said:
Yep, 6z GFS day 10 Kuchera totals:
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I'm not greedy, I would take my 2" of snow and salute all the folks on the coast.
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I think everybody in North and South Carolina would be happy with that map. Nice little appetizer before Christmas then the real fun comes in about mid January. Probably not going to happen but fun to track.
 
This is what you would want to see from the 00z EPS, but it's going to need more and it's such a tight rope. Even with the improvement, EPS barely flinched in regards to snow down the road. Have to keep the western ridge axis far enough west to allow the trough to dig and amplify, but not so much that it turns into an inland runner ala the 00z operational Euro. Less than 5% probability this works out as of now IMO.
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Well the odds are stacked against us for a storm for sure. Just very brief window where we drop a trough but looks too far east. And I won't even post the EPS beyond Christmas because it's about as ugly as it comes. I guess as usual near New Years we spend each day hoping and analyzing 2 week out ensembles to see any sign of a pattern change by mid Jan. So if we're lucky we'll get 2 weeks because Feb is dead to me until it proves otherwise
 
If the Euro is right, I might score a record high on Wednesday. Definitely going to get above 68 degrees, though, and not drop below 60 at night. That should bump up my December average. Probably not go above normal for the month, though, depending on what happens after Christmas.
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
Well the odds are stacked against us for a storm for sure. Just very brief window where we drop a trough but looks too far east. And I won't even post the EPS beyond Christmas because it's about as ugly as it comes. I guess as usual near New Years we spend each day hoping and analyzing 2 week out ensembles to see any sign of a pattern change by mid Jan. So if we're lucky we'll get 2 weeks because Feb is dead to me until it proves otherwise
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What happened to the pattern change around New Years/beginning of Jan? Oh wait it changes everyday so no need to believe it will be hot or cold lol
 
Here is the EPS for after Christmas. It shows a huge amount of variability to me, but generally has a ridge out west and a trough in the east, there's just not a lot of really below normal cold air available? It could be averaging timing of deep troughs/ridges that are skewing things, though. You could have "cold enough" troughs that stay around for 3 days and then a quick 1.5 day warmup that go's into the 60's and then is replaced by another 3 day trough...just can't tell from the averages.

Edit: also, it's likely wrong. Could be worse or better, who really knows?
Screenshot 2024-12-13 at 08-47-12 Models EPS — Pivotal Weather.png
 
I'm sure it will NOT happen, but at least they give me a chance of a bit of ZR/IP Sunday morning.

SATURDAY
Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 40s. East winds around 5 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT
Mostly cloudy. Cold with lows in the lower 30s. Northeast winds around 5 mph.

SUNDAY
Cloudy. A chance of rain showers, freezing rain and sleet in the morning, then rain showers likely in the afternoon. Little or no sleet accumulation. Highs in the lower 40s. Northeast winds around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.
 
BIG FROSTY said:
I'm sure it will NOT happen, but at least they give me a chance of a bit of ZR/IP Sunday morning.

SATURDAY
Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 40s. East winds around 5 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT
Mostly cloudy. Cold with lows in the lower 30s. Northeast winds around 5 mph.

SUNDAY
Cloudy. A chance of rain showers, freezing rain and sleet in the morning, then rain showers likely in the afternoon. Little or no sleet accumulation. Highs in the lower 40s. Northeast winds around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.
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3K NAM has been showing it so I wouldnt be shocked.
 
Better score while we can. Euro AI moving toward an ugly pattern out in time. Fits the MJO progression of stalling out in unfavorable phases, as usual in winter. CFS moving steadily in a less favorable direction also for January. At this rate, we're going down the same path as every other winter in the last few years: A few cold shots, followed by crap for days/weeks.

Hopefully, all of that is wrong. But it's not pleasant to see, particularly since there's been an expectation of happy happy joy joy for January. Not feeling the vibes on that yet, though. But maybe it's just PTSD.

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Stevo24 said:
This reeks of can kicking
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Bro relax and enjoy the weather week by week. I really don't understand the looking so far in advance. The default negative setting many have is understandable, but try to take it out of what we are trying to break down. The extended on models are going to change over and over and over again. I'd argue so far this Winter, they have actually changed for the BETTER as we approached a timeframe that originally looked shot. This entire month has been a prime example of that. I don't see an issue with looking way ahead and trying to gradually learn & see if we can get better at forecasting the longer range, but sometimes i feel like people look at it so much that they are just constantly living in the future. Just my opinion, but sticking to what is right in front of us (Between now & the next 10 days) is the way.
 
Rain Cold said:
Better score while we can. Euro AI moving toward an ugly pattern out in time. Fits the MJO progression of stalling out in unfavorable phases, as usual in winter. CFS moving steadily in a less favorable direction also for January. At this rate, we're going down the same path as every other winter in the last few years: A few cold shots, followed by crap for days/weeks.

Hopefully, all of that is wrong. But it's not pleasant to see, particularly since there's been an expectation of happy happy joy joy for January. Not feeling the vibes on that yet, though. But maybe it's just PTSD.

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That hook back on the MJO is exactly why forecasting the MJO is an absolute crap shoot lmao.
 
Mitch West said:
That hook back on the MJO is exactly why forecasting the MJO is an absolute crap shoot lmao.
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Yeah I don't disagree. But like how many winters in a row now have we seen the bulk of the season spent on the right side of the diagram? The higher bust risk, IMO, is believing forecasts that show a robust wave entering phases 7-2.

It seems like every time we see that happening 2 weeks out, as we get closer, the wave dies or loops back and remains in P6 and 5. I don’t know what it is, but something is driving that. Until that quits happening, I'm going to be skeptical of colder long range forecasts. Hopefully, this year will be different.
 
Rain Cold said:
Better score while we can. Euro AI moving toward an ugly pattern out in time. Fits the MJO progression of stalling out in unfavorable phases, as usual in winter. CFS moving steadily in a less favorable direction also for January. At this rate, we're going down the same path as every other winter in the last few years: A few cold shots, followed by crap for days/weeks.

Hopefully, all of that is wrong. But it's not pleasant to see, particularly since there's been an expectation of happy happy joy joy for January. Not feeling the vibes on that yet, though. But maybe it's just PTSD.

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We’re basically banking on a 2-3 week window hoping the MJO cooperates. This is what winter has become in the eastern US now.
 
this is bringing back some old memories. It’s way too soon to know what the pattern will be at new years but I think it’s what we’re all keeping an eye on. I like to see either the EPO or AO go negative around January 1. Preferably both. Give me my cold first then we can worry about the snow around the second week of January.
 
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