LickWx
Member
Fun fact: sunsets in Raleigh are now one minute later than the earliest sunset, slowly the sunset is getting later again
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Pattern December Dud 👀
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
If you can strengthen that trough in the NE/SE Canada and get a stronger cold feed from that, then we could make that look work, all though it would still be messy. But wintry is wintry, and recent CAD events have done well in the upstate
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This pattern is so mid.
Yay for lots of cold rain in the 40s-50s
Yay for lots of cold rain in the 40s-50s
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I think what’s going to happen in general from now til early February, is we go from this strong Nino pattern to the classic nina look.
During the very slow transition process between these 2 regimes, especially in early to mid January or so, that’s when we will probably see the +TNH/-EPO pattern shine and will probably provide our best chances for snow/ice this winter.
During the very slow transition process between these 2 regimes, especially in early to mid January or so, that’s when we will probably see the +TNH/-EPO pattern shine and will probably provide our best chances for snow/ice this winter.
Yeah too many still frame analyses being done on a pretty garbage antecedent pattern. If it did snow, it would probably be one of those 34F snows w/ 5:1 ratios
Even that’s better than what we normally have.Yeah too many still frame analyses being done on a pretty garbage antecedent pattern. If it did snow, it would probably be one of those 34F snows w/ 5:1 ratios
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah too many still frame analyses being done on a pretty garbage antecedent pattern. If it did snow, it would probably be one of those 34F snows w/ 5:1 ratios
It’s the kind of pattern where the mountains and foothills (@BIG FROSTY) might score but that’s probably about it.
ITUSETOSNOW
Member
OMG< really?
NCSNOW
Member
Dare I say it. Even cleaned out most of those annoying bed sheet size brown oak leaves that litter up a mans yard in dribble fashion all winter.
Awesome pic John 1122. Best way to get rid of leaf litter, bury it under snow.
Triplephase93
Member
My sister reported moderate snow around 6:45 this morning in Hixson Tn. Lasted about 15 minutes she said. Pissed I missed it.
We doing this again? The AI runs have indeed been having this Manitoba Mauler look with closed ridge over Seattle, ridge in N Atlantic, and sharp trough in between
LickWx
Member
Nope, the days are getting shorter till then overall but sunsets have begun getting later... its not new, you are just ill informed
Sunrise and sunset times in Raleigh
Calculations of sunrise and sunset in Raleigh – North Carolina – USA for December 2024. Generic astronomy calculator to calculate times for sunrise, sunset, moonrise, moonset for many cities, with daylight saving time and time zones taken in account.
www.timeanddate.com
Thanks for throwing us a life raft in the midst of our ocean of despair.
Mahomeless
Member
All 6 of us will be on the north side of Columbus from 12/18 - 12/26. I’m really liking the pattern shaping up for the kids to see some meaningful snow.
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Here's how the ERA-5 Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) MJO Index (OMI) shakes out for NC winter storms since 1940. Looked at (& had to dig up) any winter storm that produced measurable snow east of the mountains or a glaze of ice.
First table here are the daily probabilities of a winter storm, sorted according to ENSO phase. It's actually crazy to see a 20% daily chance of a winter storm during cool neutral ENSO & phase 1 OMI (Western Hemisphere convection).
Phases 4-5-6 of the OMI MJO index tend to be unfavorable overall, while 8-1-2 are generally conducive for wintry weather.
There's also some ENSO sensitivity to these favorable OMI MJO phases. Phase 1 (western hemisphere convection) is better in cold ENSO (like this year), while Phase 2 (Indian Ocean convection) is more favorable in El Niño.
This is what the differences look like compared to climatology.
Here are the total day counts by ENSO phase:
https://psl.noaa.gov/mjo/
First table here are the daily probabilities of a winter storm, sorted according to ENSO phase. It's actually crazy to see a 20% daily chance of a winter storm during cool neutral ENSO & phase 1 OMI (Western Hemisphere convection).
Phases 4-5-6 of the OMI MJO index tend to be unfavorable overall, while 8-1-2 are generally conducive for wintry weather.
There's also some ENSO sensitivity to these favorable OMI MJO phases. Phase 1 (western hemisphere convection) is better in cold ENSO (like this year), while Phase 2 (Indian Ocean convection) is more favorable in El Niño.
This is what the differences look like compared to climatology.
Here are the total day counts by ENSO phase:
https://psl.noaa.gov/mjo/
pacific trending more favorable under D10 
Fantastic, Webb, I am sure this took a lot of time and effort. So it looks as if going into phases 1 and 8 give better odds versus the traditional thought that phase 7 was the big ticket item, with the exception of warm neutral?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Well the traditional more widely known RMM MJO index and this OLR MJO index are calculated differently. This OLR MJO index relies on filtered OLR anomalies, whereas RMM relies on that and zonal low-level + upper level winds. I’d be interested to see an extension of the RMM index using ERA-5.
In any case, here’s where the OMI index was as of December 9.
Ideally, in this situation we want to get it into phase 1 in January, as this would nearly double our odds (vs normal) of seeing a winter storm, but phase 8 is also good.
- Joined
- Jan 23, 2021
- Messages
- 3,741
- Reaction score
- 11,693
- Location
- Lebanon Township, Durham County NC
So I know there's a lag time with response to things like the NAO turning negative, etc. I'm assuming there is a lag time for the MJO as well?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yes there definitely is. This lag is dependent on a lot of things (like the current state of the circulation pattern, the speed and amplitude of the mjo, time of year, enso state, etc.,) but it’s usually in the ballpark of a week or two.
At least we aren't torching this Christmas. Most model guidance has trended towards a pretty aggressive shot of cold air just before Christmas.
If memory serves, verifying colder in the long term has been the norm for this December going back to mid-November.
NCSNOW
Member
6Z Gefs has two NC whopper members for the Euro AI Storm
Man we gotta miss close before we hit big.
It’s the hotter version. It’s why we need that PV sagging into SE Canada. But it still gives be some December 8 2017 flashbacks
JHS
Member
That was a miss here.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
I say bring it! That was a great storm for ATL if we can get that or even any good Miller A setup again. All we can do is hope the model trends line up to an actual storm vs shaft us again with too warm or dry.
The EC AI with another banger.
JHS
Member
If it can only come 25 more miles southeast this time. 12-8-2017 was 100% rain here.
GFS says yes 
D
Deleted member 609
Guest
Hello there
SnowwxAtl
Member
Can some post the EURO AI model?
There has been a signal for this time on the models for a while now.
first window that has my full and undivided attention this season so far