^^total freezing rain at ~noon:
Kind of follows (passes) the euro AI...
Kind of follows (passes) the euro AI...
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Pattern December Dud 👀
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
One thing is starting to present itself (on the models) is CAD may dominate the weather all the way up to the new year. Webber stated this the other day.
Avalanche
Member
Would love to be in Charleston overlooking the storms off the ocean
I see you, Boston. Getting their last-minute trend as expected.
I was literally at this exact location a week ago.
I was literally at this exact location a week ago.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I saw a lot of people up there pooping on the NAM too.
This is another classic case of advancing mid-level warm advection overperforming vs model forecasts and the NAM being the closest to sniffing it out correctly, as it often does around here in CAD/overrunning events.
I can certainly think of other cases around here like Jan 28-29 2014, Jan 6-7 2017, Dec 2017, & Feb 2020 (GA) where we’ve seen similar short term model busts for the same dynamical reasons.
Yep, this is the NAM's wheelhouse (usually). Even in our light event earlier in the month, the NAM did best with this. As you've said, there have been many, many examples of this including some more minor events as well (I can think of one that happened earlier in January 2014 I believe - just a light snow event but still overperformed relative to most guidance).
Avalanche
Member
I think it’s more than a feeling, Boston will get theirs.
NCSNOW
Member
Should stop raining per models late NYD. Just in time to head back to work. Best make hay between now a Christmas day.
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All the family is coming here for Christmas, so I won't go up to Boone until after the new year. But the high country is getting their snow.
King Street in Boone: https://www.resortcams.com/webcams/king-street-boone/
Beech Ski Slopes: https://www.beechmountainresort.com/mountain/webcams/
King Street in Boone: https://www.resortcams.com/webcams/king-street-boone/
Beech Ski Slopes: https://www.beechmountainresort.com/mountain/webcams/
GoDuke
Member
Are snow showers going to continue through out the day or is it over? Thinking about making a day trip up to Boone today.
Probably over now:
Today
A chance of snow showers, mainly before 8am. Partly sunny, with a high near 29. Northwest wind 13 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Tonight
Partly cloudy, with a low around 13. Northwest wind 5 to 9 mph.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 34. Northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the morning.
Sunday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 17. Calm wind.
Monday
Sunny, with a high near 37. Calm wind becoming south around 6 mph in the morning.
I would go straight up to Beech Mountain. Grab something to eat and play in the snow. The Sledding Hill is a good place to go. It's free.
The sneaky little Christmas Eve morning system isn't getting enough attention IMO. I won't take much for the attending precip shield to extend a bit further NW bringing a raw light icing and sleet event into NE Ga. (hometown stretch) but mainly through the central Carolinas.
It's not much, but something to keep an eye on while we wait for the January deep freeze.
If nothing else, it'll feel like Christmas for a change.
It's not much, but something to keep an eye on while we wait for the January deep freeze.
If nothing else, it'll feel like Christmas for a change.
Lol go off NAM
12z Canadian at noon on Christmas Eve:
Total freezing rain QPF:
Oh, and I'm only the messenger...
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah i have to agree with most here, we have to watch this system around Christmas Eve.
Even without much on the precip fields on some guidance, you still have to be weary of freezing drizzle here with solid warm advection above the cad dome and temps within striking distance of freezing over the Piedmont. The fact that todays storm over performed a bit in the mid Atlantic makes me feel a little better about this potential threat as the air mass upstream may be a bit colder.
Even without much on the precip fields on some guidance, you still have to be weary of freezing drizzle here with solid warm advection above the cad dome and temps within striking distance of freezing over the Piedmont. The fact that todays storm over performed a bit in the mid Atlantic makes me feel a little better about this potential threat as the air mass upstream may be a bit colder.
@Webberweather53 and I were just talking about this yesterday, but you can't totally discount the NAM here. If there is strong H85 frontogenesis (and look at that overrunning potential) you could certainly see some significant precipitation break out.
RGEM has also been trending towards a more consolidated wave to spark the overrunning.
With such a cold air mass having been deposited in place, a relatively strong in-situ / hybrid CAD could easily support some FZRA/FZDZ especially deeper into the wedge despite the surface high somewhat pulling out.
With such a cold air mass having been deposited in place, a relatively strong in-situ / hybrid CAD could easily support some FZRA/FZDZ especially deeper into the wedge despite the surface high somewhat pulling out.
Avalanche
Member
Bar Harbor in Maine is cookin’ look at that snow!!!
weather bubba
Member
It is something to watch. The weather service isn't too bullish yet on anything happening except for a small chance of rain but if enough cold air gets trapped at the surface and the precipitation gets pushed a little further north, some of us might have some light icing in the trees to make the scenery look more like Christmas.
Downeastnc
Member
37 for the high so far not to shabby, we have not had a sub freezing high here since Dec 2022....
Avalanche
Member
WRAL mentioned some light rain towards the coast
Already down to 28. Oof womp wen cold
It's alil too far away ATM, I looked..
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Think we have an outside shot at 19 tonight. Dead still outside and clear.
gawxnative
Member
Dropping off much quicker than forecast here also... At 2045 EST now 28 ! Winds are pure still here and only got to 45 here when forecast was for "upper 40's " and had a "cold shot" about 1400 local when temps retreated from 43 to 36 between 1300 up until approaching 1500 !! I do not know what may have "caused" that as skys were clear and did get a bit breezy during that time frame. ????
16.9, going for a run 
brrrrr
brrrrr
25 in the upstate. Car top smoked.
Downeastnc
Member
20 again for the low once again PGV can't get below 20...no sub 20 low since Christmas Eve 2022.
CumulonimbusIncus
Member
Daily min for my PWS last night was 29.0°F (mind you daily mins are warmer here since I'm adjacent to the Neuse River) -- 26°F at KEWN, wind didn't decouple though the breeze felt very very cold waking up and checking out the mailbox.
Tomorrow looking to be a stinking cold rainy day here, likely too far east to receive freezing precip here.
Tomorrow looking to be a stinking cold rainy day here, likely too far east to receive freezing precip here.
27. Beautiful evening heading into christmas
wow
Member
Well at least it's better than last Christmas. Here's to a knockout Jan.
WFFaithful
Member
4 degrees colder than forecast this morning
Now this is Christmas weather. Merry torchmas 2024 has been denied 
NCSNOW
Member
I want to wish everyone on here a Merry Christmas and a early Happy 2025!. Hope all yall get to enjoy your families and time away from work and School!
