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12/2/2024 - Potential Clipper Action!

jrips27 said:
Think we could get some flakes down into the northern ATL burbs. Feels like sometimes these events can overperform a bit before they dry up around I-20
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I got a dusting a couple of years ago at the new place on something similar. Just got under a little band for awhile.
 
This has Jan 2003 vibes..... with the meso-low in the upstate and the angle of the clipper. Someone will be surprised. I believe the ratios will be high also, due to the cold upper levels and lift the DGZ
 
SimeonNC said:
What happened in January 2003?
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A clipper system was forecast to give the CLT metro area around and inch or so of snow. A mesolow formed near GSP at the last minute and the are metro area ended up getting 6-10” in just a matter of a few hours. There was officially 8.5” at the airport with an unheard of around here 40:1 snow to liquid ratio. Some parts of Cleveland County over to Lincoln County ended up with over a foot. There was also thundersnow throughout the event
 
On a scale of 1-10, how much should I get about the north shifts on both the HRRR and the RAP? I'm assuming due to the meso low and the potential frontogenesis I shouldn't care that much at all right?
 
Chazwin said:
A clipper system was forecast to give the CLT metro area around and inch or so of snow. A mesolow formed near GSP at the last minute and the are metro area ended up getting 6-10” in just a matter of a few hours. There was officially 8.5” at the airport with an unheard of around here 40:1 snow to liquid ratio. Some parts of Cleveland County over to Lincoln County ended up with over a foot. There was also thundersnow throughout the event
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Oh wow. It would be amazing if we got like 1/3 or 1/4 of that.
 
Chazwin said:
A clipper system was forecast to give the CLT metro area around and inch or so of snow. A mesolow formed near GSP at the last minute and the are metro area ended up getting 6-10” in just a matter of a few hours. There was officially 8.5” at the airport with an unheard of around here 40:1 snow to liquid ratio. Some parts of Cleveland County over to Lincoln County ended up with over a foot. There was also thundersnow throughout the event
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I got 12.5 out of that one in SW Rutherford county. One of the best surprised clipper systems coming over the mountains I've ever seen in my 42 years living here. Ended up turning into one of the best snowstorms of all time around here that wasn't supposed to be. Hoping for some surprises tonight for everyone after the storm crosses the mountains and reforms. I have a feeling someone is going to be surprised in the morning. Good luck to all. We are definitely way past overdue.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Basically the beginning of him probably realizing it might be more then just a flurry east of the mountains
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I love Brad but what’s with all his hate/down talk to possible winter weather. I get a lot of meteorologists make bad calls and get burned but he takes the cake for downplaying everything!
 
SimeonNC said:
I was mainly talking about the recent RAP runs seemingly having most of the precip north of CLT, it's a selfish weenie question lol
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I hear ya. I am watching them too. We can say with good confidence that this isn’t going to explode into some big event, but the goal would be to see the precip blossom some east of the apps and hang around for a few hours
 
Rock Hil, SC (south of Charlotte) were at 33.1, 24.1 dew point, and 70% humidity. Humidity has gone up substanually over the last 2 hours or so from 38%. Temp down from 44.1 2 hours ago and dewpoint is down 1 from an hour ago.

Edit: now at 28.9F and 24.1F dewpoint with 82% humidity.
 
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I can definitely see some potential for release of conditional symmetric instability (CSI) in this event, which would increase the snowfall rates in some isolated areas/enhance the banding.

You don’t have much warm advection obviously but you do have some decently defined snow bands that are oriented parallel to the deep-layer thicknesses/thermal wind and a moist neutral type of profile up to about 600mb
 
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