CNCsnwfan1210
Member
GFS going with a split PV around 12/24
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Pattern December Doldrums 2025 🎄 ❄️
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
GFS going with a split PV around 12/24
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EPS beginning to consolidate precip with this thu night fropa rain. the next interesting thing beyond today's arctic fropa and cold temps tomorrow morning. good moisture throughout the column and nice front-parallel flow + jet streak right entrance vibes. nothing crazy but again, looks like the next "story" locally
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
NBAcentel
Member
If we can dig a bit more then a low topped QLCS doesn’t seem crazy. Dews/temps are borderline though and it’s likely to be overnight-morning time which is no bueno for instability
yeah i was looking for some mucape at least and there is hardly any. a few eps members toss some out. could be a gusty line amidst a mass of light/mdt rain
Btw, this was a fail. Cold air chasing moisture never works east of the apps
I mean it’s a decent windchill forecast. Nice to go ahead and get an upper teen low by mid December. I’ll chalk it as a win. It’s early
Downeastnc
Member
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yep there’s the lake effect snow band trying to setup as the NAM had shown last night
Downeastnc
Member
Seems kinda east to be off Buggs/Kerr/Gaston
Hauling trash with my 8 year old now and can confirm this is a brutal wind chill
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Looks like there’s just barely enough forcing and leftover moisture (in part supplied by the lakes) to get some isolated snow/sleet/gruapel showers going
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The surface flow is actually parallel to the long axis of Kerr Lake & Lake Gaston, so it’s picking up some moisture off the lakes while the low-level profile is absolutely unstable over the lake, favoring the development of convection.
The real reason those showers are getting blown way off to the east is actually because of the westerly vertical wind shear aloft closer to the middle and upper parts of the cloud layer, with much stronger westerly winds aloft
Downeastnc
Member
Pretty cool to see this little band being enhanced by the Pamlico River, don't see that too often.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
18z GFS digs this weekend’s (& Wed’s) troughs even more than the previous run, which leads to even faster -NAO onset this time.
What does this mean for the LR (January)
JHS
Member
The trend on the GFS right now is for it to be drier each run for many of us. Drought will be the big story in the southeast for some time to come it looks like.
This is the type of cold that cuts through you. 27/11 with gusty winds. I’ve got four pulllets not used to this so I had to break out the brooder lamp.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Could be an interesting early part of January as this runs its course
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Wild to see this band of snow coming off the Albemarle Sound
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Wow, starting to see 35 dBz in that band of snow coming off the Albemarle Sound. Legitimately ripping fatties there between Columbia & Plymouth
Probably the most intense lake or sound effect snow band I’ve ever seen in NC
Probably the most intense lake or sound effect snow band I’ve ever seen in NC
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Wind trajectory is just right, that is cool stuff right there!
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Man if I lived within an hour or so of there I’d be chasing that band of snow, because you know it’s absolutely dumping underneath it
Tsappfrog20
Member
I looked and thought about it but I’m two hours away so I couldn’t make it there in time most likely
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah if I lived in and around Greenville or so I absolutely would have chased that
I was today years old when I heard of these!!?? Very interesting! Currently 6 degrees!
Brent
Member
First really cold day of the winter haha. Didn't get above freezing 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Im impressed so far 
Jimmy should be at the outer banks! Snow there before Fountain Inn
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- Lebanon Township, Durham County NC
Already 19
I’ve been in a snow band before out there at KDH that was coming from the north off Chesapeake bay but can’t recall seeing one coming off the Albemarle or Pamlico.
Makes me wish Lake Waccamaw was deeper to we’d get lake effect here.
Makes me wish Lake Waccamaw was deeper to we’d get lake effect here.
High elevation roundup as lake/bay effect snow falls on OBX
Mt Jefferson: 0.1F
Fryingpan Mtn: 1.6F
Mitchell: -3.6F
Beech: -1.4F
Jefferson: 8F
Boone: 9F
Many wind chills below -20 up top. NCSCO having server issues so idk what grandfather managed to get to wind chill wise, but I’d guess they grazed -30
26.6 here in Spartanburg
Mt Jefferson: 0.1F
Fryingpan Mtn: 1.6F
Mitchell: -3.6F
Beech: -1.4F
Jefferson: 8F
Boone: 9F
Many wind chills below -20 up top. NCSCO having server issues so idk what grandfather managed to get to wind chill wise, but I’d guess they grazed -30
26.6 here in Spartanburg
Tsappfrog20
Member
Already down to 21 in Youngsville!
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A crisp 15.4 currently
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
NWG_WX14
Member
16.0 with a windchill of 3.4. Bone chilling out tonight!