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Pattern December Doldrums 2025 🎄 ❄️

Stevo24 said:
Looks like it wants to head back towards 8 for January. Come on you can do it.
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Well, I just saw it updated for Dec 11th. It, indeed, looks like it finally was headed back toward phase 8. Technically, they’re calling 12/11 a very weak phase 7. Good chance I think that it returned to phase 8 on 12/12 (inside the circle)! We should know by tomorrow evening about 12/12.
IMG_6118.gif
 
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Had a 18F temp rise since midnight ahead of the Arctic front, was 38 now 56.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
GaWx said:
This is now only 114 hours out (Thursday evening) and the deeper trough trend is still continuing as of the 6Z GFS:
View attachment 178912

Due to this the colder temperature trend for Saturday AM is continuing through the 6Z GFS:
View attachment 178914
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Interestingly, the ICON led the way with this look for this weekend. As you've posted, the GFS has been playing catch-up for days.
 
EURO AI with a big Boxing Day CAD storm on this morning's run. I do like how the various OP runs sniff out some big changes back to cold in the post-Christmas week time frame. Just noise at this lead, of course, but a reminder that the ensemble torches have some contrarian members.
 
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Wild Weather Monger said:
EURO with a big Boxing Day CAD storm on this morning's run. I do like how the various OP runs sniff out some big changes back to cold in the post-Christmas week time frame. Just noise at this lead, of course, but a reminder that the ensemble torches have some contrarian members.
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There is NO big storm on the Euro or GFS models for this time period.
 
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Parker said:
Latest GFS and Euro for Birmingham. These temps while still above normal in the longer range, are a far cry from what we had been seeing. The trend still seems to be much cooler than what the long rage is spitting out with the high temps.

View attachment 178920View attachment 178921
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You should still be able to easily enjoy your Xmas dinner on the back deck outside …
 
Parker said:
Latest GFS and Euro for Birmingham. These temps while still above normal in the longer range, are a far cry from what we had been seeing. The trend still seems to be much cooler than what the long rage is spitting out with the high temps.

View attachment 178920View attachment 178921
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How are we supposed to trust the GFS in the fantasy range when it has been this far off for this coming Friday? In just 30 hours of runs for Friday AM, Birmingham has gone from an anomaly of +13C to -2C! That’s a 15C/27F drop just since yesterday’s 0Z GFS! (And this then translates E into all of the SE on Sat as I’ve been showing.)
IMG_6127.gif

I like to emphasize that the MJO is a tool for its tendencies and that there are exceptions. But when also considering that the early Dec phase 8 was colder than an average phase 8, these MJO forecasts don’t at all typically go together well with a very warm late Dec when looking at history meaning I’m still not yet betting heavily on the mildness:

EPS
IMG_6124.png

GEFS
IMG_6123.png
 
GaWx said:
How are we supposed to trust the GFS in the fantasy range when it has been this far off for this coming Friday? In just 30 hours of runs for Friday AM, Birmingham has gone from an anomaly of +13C to -2C! That’s a 15C/27F drop just since yesterday’s 0Z GFS! (And this then translates E into all of the SE on Sat as I’ve been showing.)
View attachment 178927

I like to emphasize that the MJO is a tool for its tendencies and that there are exceptions. But when also considering that the early Dec phase 8 was colder than an average phase 8, these MJO forecasts don’t at all typically go together well with a very warm late Dec when looking at history meaning I’m still not yet betting heavily on the mildness:

EPS
View attachment 178923

GEFS
View attachment 178924
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I thought that Cosgrove guy just said cold and phase 8 of MJO is hogwash???
 
GaWx said:
How are we supposed to trust the GFS in the fantasy range when it has been this far off for this coming Friday? In just 30 hours of runs for Friday AM, Birmingham has gone from an anomaly of +13C to -2C! That’s a 15C/27F drop just since yesterday’s 0Z GFS! (And this then translates E into all of the SE on Sat as I’ve been showing.)
View attachment 178927

I like to emphasize that the MJO is a tool for its tendencies and that there are exceptions. But when also considering that the early Dec phase 8 was colder than an average phase 8, these MJO forecasts don’t at all typically go together well with a very warm late Dec when looking at history meaning I’m still not yet betting heavily on the mildness:

EPS
View attachment 178923

GEFS
View attachment 178924
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That's a nice trend from the past few days!
 
JHS said:
There is NO big storm on the Euro or GFS models for this time period.
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This pattern sucks for any snow late month.

It’s the kind of pattern where it can get just cold enough at times to piss you off and that’s about it.

Maybe at the very end of December that could start to change as the -NAO gets going
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
That's a nice trend from the past few days!
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1. That huge cooling is actually just over 1.25 days of runs! We’re looking at the potential of a massive fail of especially yesterday’s 0Z GFS inside 7 days.

2. For later in Dec, the GEFS NAO has trended negative the last 48 hours: look familiar?

Two days ago (12/12):
IMG_6112.png

Today (12/14):
IMG_6129.png
 
GaWx said:
1. That huge cooling is actually just over 1.25 days of runs! We’re looking at the potential of a massive fail of especially yesterday’s 0Z GFS inside 7 days.

2. For later in Dec, the GEFS NAO has trended negative the last 48 hours: look familiar?

Two days ago (12/12):
View attachment 178928

Today (12/14):
View attachment 178929
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Hopefully trends like this continue if we ever get the chance at a winter storm. It’d be nice to watch something trend more favorable and colder during a big event.
 
Fwiw, the 0z NAM shows a lake effect snow band developing off of Lake Kerr over eastern NC later this evening.

IMG_6909.jpeg

I can see that happening depending of course on the wind direction if it can parallel the long axis of the lake a bit more and pick up a tad more moisture from Lake Gaston. The low-level temperatures can certainly support lake effect snow here too.

850mb temps of -10C or less are usually sufficient to get lake effect snow going and they’re about -15C later today.
IMG_6908.png
 
About the only good news we have is that Canada looks to remain cold in this -WPO / -PNA pattern, so any hiccup in the wave pattern could add some interest. But I feel like the only thing that could enact real change is if Greenland Blocking were to go to town and bully the pattern, and with the aforementioned cold air in Canada being redirected south - hard to achieve, but not a crazy idea given the pattern at hand in the Atlantic and a stratosphere that is not hostile to blocking developing.

MJO 7-8-1-2 progression has typically been fruitful in Cool ENSO / La Nina, but this fast-moving tropical wave embedded within a psuedo MJO setup has been a pill, and there is no sign of help coming from Asia (+EAMT) with wave breaking from the Pac Jet occurring well to the west in the Pacific (-WPO / -PNA).
 
griteater said:
About the only good news we have is that Canada looks to remain cold in this -WPO / -PNA pattern, so any hiccup in the wave pattern could add some interest. But I feel like the only thing that could enact real change is if Greenland Blocking were to go to town and bully the pattern, and with the aforementioned cold air in Canada being redirected south - hard to achieve, but not a crazy idea given the pattern at hand in the Atlantic and a stratosphere that is not hostile to blocking developing.

MJO 7-8-1-2 progression has typically been fruitful in Cool ENSO / La Nina, but this fast-moving tropical wave embedded within a psuedo MJO setup has been a pill, and there is no sign of help coming from Asia (+EAMT) with wave breaking from the Pac Jet occurring well to the west in the Pacific (-WPO / -PNA).
Click to expand...
In essence, we still kicking the can down the road like Bruce likes to say lol. Keep us posted when things may turn for a better pattern configuration. I guess the good news is it's still only mid December. If we are still saying this a month from now, then that's a different story
 
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