NBAcentel
Member
It has upper 30s and cold rain
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Pattern December Doldrums 2025 🎄 ❄️
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
So it’s not just one OP run now?
Twister
Member
And it's the GFS So you believe it
NBAcentel
Member
It’s not the GFS it’s the newly rolled out AI-GFS, and never said I believed it. But the AI-EC has the same exact thing with rain and a wedge in the 40s so I guess it’s not impossibleAnd it's the GFS So you believe it
18z GFS was the best op run I’ve seen in days for the Christmas period. Had been consistently showing mid to upper 70s for Christmas.
Not so fast on the Torchmas
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Torchy sleet as Santa is finishing up his run
Brent
Member
Wind chills near zero here Sunday
When torch
When torch
wow
Member
CAD usually shows up in the shorter range on the trad models so it's possible AI is learning?
That's more to do with the wind than anything else. Temperatures in the teens aren't unusual at all north of I-20. 18F low with a 20mph wind is gonna make the camper floor mighty cold.
Last edited:
SWVAwxfan
Member
I’m dreaming of a dark Christmas!
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Brent
Member
Hey on the bright side at least when we torched for Christmas 2021 there was 14 inches of snow after...
NBAcentel
Member
Disgusting CAD pattern starting to show up with a 50/50 low showing up on the GEFS 
This is bad? Or not conducive to switch back to cold after Christmas?
He meant disgusting as in disgustingly good.
Ha! I thought so.
Happy New Year
Torch be gone!
Torch be gone!
tennessee storm
Member
372 hours. Out. Book it
pls keep nudging west my friend
rburrel2
Member
Some light at the end of the tunnel?
Nice to finally see some slightly positive trends at the end of the model runs now anyways.
Maybe we will have a window around the first week of January.
Nice to finally see some slightly positive trends at the end of the model runs now anyways.
Maybe we will have a window around the first week of January.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Pretty good agreement here.
We usually have to take a SE ridge to the chin while the -NAO begins to develop
We usually have to take a SE ridge to the chin while the -NAO begins to develop
I wouldn't worry about it. His last video was all positive. The next one will probably be also, when the models flip back and the -NAO gets a foothold.This video depressed me..
Good night
Based on the instability of the models much earlier (like as early as 6 days out), I’m not so sure there isn’t at least a faint light well inside the tunnel. Something to monitor.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Bad news is despite the -NAO, I don’t know when or how we’re going to get rid of this Aleutian ridge.
The reason it’s so persistent is we’re seeing a tug-of-war here between some competing forces.
One of those being the tropical +AAMa that developed during the last MJO event which is trying to kick it east (red first image over the west pacific) vs persistent negative E Asia Mtn Torque (2nd image) & planetary vorticity advection trying to kick it west. These forces are largely offsetting each other, so we end up with a stationary wave pattern.
Our best chance to dislodge it might be to reignite the tropical west pac convection and advect it a bit further east into the Gulf of Alaska. Still many weeks off from that
The reason it’s so persistent is we’re seeing a tug-of-war here between some competing forces.
One of those being the tropical +AAMa that developed during the last MJO event which is trying to kick it east (red first image over the west pacific) vs persistent negative E Asia Mtn Torque (2nd image) & planetary vorticity advection trying to kick it west. These forces are largely offsetting each other, so we end up with a stationary wave pattern.
Our best chance to dislodge it might be to reignite the tropical west pac convection and advect it a bit further east into the Gulf of Alaska. Still many weeks off from that
Been the trend for a while now, bet the streak.
rburrel2
Member
Yea the 00z Euro ext. ensemble control from yesterday cooked up something big at hr 360. It's a long shot, but can't rule it out yet.
Fairly frosty this morning. We got to 29
Haven't hit single digits in the calendar year 2025 Monday morning is an opportunity but I think we stop in the 12-17 range
NCSNOW
Member
Ben Crosby kind of a.m. as another caked on mega frost has made an appearance.
Short term, will the winds be calm sunday night? If its a clear, calm ,max radiational cooling night. Some of the country folk could get a 9 degree reading.
I had trouble with pivital, but euro looked like it sent a gusty line of heavy storms from west to east next Friday. We could use something that can generate more than a tenth of an inch qpf. Thats one thing a 50/50 low would do. Is finally slow up this fast flow an perhaps allow one of the ns vorts to dig an amplify for a change. But thats still 10 days out. But good news, signal is consistently shiwing on all models. Golf course is closed christmas eve an day anyway. So bring a cad storm on
Short term, will the winds be calm sunday night? If its a clear, calm ,max radiational cooling night. Some of the country folk could get a 9 degree reading.
I had trouble with pivital, but euro looked like it sent a gusty line of heavy storms from west to east next Friday. We could use something that can generate more than a tenth of an inch qpf. Thats one thing a 50/50 low would do. Is finally slow up this fast flow an perhaps allow one of the ns vorts to dig an amplify for a change. But thats still 10 days out. But good news, signal is consistently shiwing on all models. Golf course is closed christmas eve an day anyway. So bring a cad storm on
NCSNOW
Member
Skies should be mostly clear, maybe a few passing patches. Winds probably stay up until right around sun up. We almost always are warmer in these setups than expected
If EC is to be believed it should be pretty darn calm in the foothills. I am always a skeptic of the big cold nights and think further east country spots won’t be able to get below maybe 13-15Fat best. Up in Dobson or the likes I could see a 9-12F
Check out this GFS trend toward strong CAD even earlier, on 12/22: models are so unstable right now even before fantasyland:
