That's a strong one too!
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Pattern December Doldrums 2025 🎄 ❄️
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
heck, they’re not in agreement on the back half of next week. GFS is on an island with its depiction of how things go after Tuesday!
Even the ecmwf/AIFS are not in super tight agreement. I just split the difference for the most part this morning, but will be interesting to see how it pans. Just big temp differences
JHS
Member
I'm hoping the 6z GFS is right about Christmas. 70's for all outside of the mountains.
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
C-Money
Member
Not sure we'll have any winter storm threats the rest of the month. I hate wasting the cold we have right now. Maybe things will change soon. I guess you have to take the models week to week now and hope something pops up.
These doomsday Herculean Aleutian ridges don’t just disappear overnight. We’ve had winters that these have persisted.
But we can have fun tracking CAD events where highs are muted from the 60’s to the 40’s. That’s always fun in the heart of winter.
But we’ve already had 2 events…solid winter.
But we can have fun tracking CAD events where highs are muted from the 60’s to the 40’s. That’s always fun in the heart of winter.
But we’ve already had 2 events…solid winter.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
People panicking a week before winter even begins is something
So what's this mention of snow possibility again tomorrow morning? Looks to be a Raleigh south & east event
While we fret over the coming warm-up that may wind up being more of a back-and-forth kind of thing rather than a sustained torch between now and Christmas, I, for one, am looking forward to tomorrow's Arctic front. The front will blow through here around daybreak and go sub-freezing by late afternoon.
Stepping outside of my basement sports bar with a cold beer in hand to feel the temperature fall throughout the day on a stiff NW wind, despite full sunshine, as my beloved Saints dash the Panthers' playoff hopes, will be nice.
Stepping outside of my basement sports bar with a cold beer in hand to feel the temperature fall throughout the day on a stiff NW wind, despite full sunshine, as my beloved Saints dash the Panthers' playoff hopes, will be nice.
Brent
Member
35 degrees at 930am
And today is the warmest day of the weekend
When torch
And today is the warmest day of the weekend
When torch
Isn't Groundhog Day in February?
Not to mention that the GFS has likely not corrected cold enough:
Ole Goofy still knows how to reel the weenies into its fantasy land.
iGRXY
Member
I know I've sounded like a beaten horse, but there's a reason I don't trust extended torches around here. Even if you don't have a -NAO or 50/50 low showing up in the extended, we still figure out a way to CAD. We've always have and I lean on what I know vs what a model or ensemble shows. You typically will see 50/50 lows and North Atlantic troughs start to show up the closer we get in time. We will see days of warm weather, but there's going to be several days of 40 degree cold rains and clouds too. I highly doubt you end up with anything frozen until January right now, but if you think we are going a month straight of mostly 60's and 70's in VA/NC/SC, I've got some bad news for you.
With that said, I still doubt anybody south of VA or the TN/NC border sees any type of frozen until you get the Aleutian ridge to move east. I respect our meteorologist on this board and their knowledge of pattern recognition, but I just can't take much seriously past 10 days right now. They still rely on models, teleconnections, etc to make these predictions and a week to 10 days ago pretty much everything said we should be cold going into January and now they don't. Sorry, but I just will not take these things as gospel beyond 10 days. Whether it's showing cold or heat.
With that said, I still doubt anybody south of VA or the TN/NC border sees any type of frozen until you get the Aleutian ridge to move east. I respect our meteorologist on this board and their knowledge of pattern recognition, but I just can't take much seriously past 10 days right now. They still rely on models, teleconnections, etc to make these predictions and a week to 10 days ago pretty much everything said we should be cold going into January and now they don't. Sorry, but I just will not take these things as gospel beyond 10 days. Whether it's showing cold or heat.
lexxnchloe
Member
The almost storm to end 2025
In the interest of showing objectivity, I expect the 12Z Euro, which is about to be released, to not be as cold as the 0Z that I posted 3 temp anom maps from. But the overall trends toward not as warm, more CAD, and instability of models within just a week seems real to me and tells me not to bet the farm at least yet on a mainly mild 12/18-31 in the SE like has been suggested by ens. means. We’ll see.
UKMET is in the chilly camp for next weekend, too:
NBAcentel
Member
The pacific sucks but the Atlantic is trying, maybe to fast on the retrogression to a -NAO but it’s probably eventually gonna happen 
Followup on 12Z Euro vs 0Z:
-12/20 map not quite as cold but still BN
-12/22 and 12/25 maps much warmer
I expected this because 0Z was such a cold run and thus appeared to go too far. But regardless, 12/20 is overall still trending colder in model consensus and models remain unstable telling me to not bet too heavily in late month mild domination.
C-Money
Member
Goofy loves to pick up those storms in fantasy land. I think it does it just on case it actually happens so it can say it was the first one to see it coming. If you do it enough it's bound to happen sometime.
high. Can’t even remember the last time I saw one modeled inside 1,000 hours 
wow
Member
Last January on a number of model runs. Then things end up differently. Remember talking about a Jan 88 repeat.
256wx
Member
Noobie question- what's a banana high? Google didn't help me out, but Jan of 1988 was a good snow time for my area.
It's a bridge between two high pressure systems that forms a banana shape. On the map two posts before this one, it would be the bridge between the high pressure system in the Northeast and the one located on the Texas/Oklahoma border that forms a banana shaped bridge.
Don’t bother it’ll never happen.
JB, with a long post today with lots of images and analogs. So here was his conclusion. lol He thinks the cold will return and not the warm winter over blah blah blah......
So what is the conclusion?
With Cold dominating in Canada, it ups the ante
If January turns brutal, like the current cold that we saw, it should not be a surprise
If it stays warm, the winter-over scenario that has happened before after these shots is possible, I don't think it's likely
But there are members (1989-1990,2005-2006 where it did end. So it adds to the problem in the forecast
I just think if we have almost the exact conditions we had in 1984-1985 we should consider that as much as what models are saying. I lead to the analogs
So what is the conclusion?
With Cold dominating in Canada, it ups the ante
If January turns brutal, like the current cold that we saw, it should not be a surprise
If it stays warm, the winter-over scenario that has happened before after these shots is possible, I don't think it's likely
But there are members (1989-1990,2005-2006 where it did end. So it adds to the problem in the forecast
I just think if we have almost the exact conditions we had in 1984-1985 we should consider that as much as what models are saying. I lead to the analogs
tennessee storm
Member
84 85 is pretty much once fifty years analog I would imagine
should be some fun meteorology going on tomorrow
Looks like it wants to head back towards 8 for January. Come on you can do it.
63 today and I believe that is the first AN high of the month. Walked amongst one of the largest Helene blowdowns I have found outside of higher terrain 
Looks very much like F.A.T.S outside of Augusta. Pretty sad on a glorious day.
packfan98
Moderator
Low IQ torch
packfan98
Moderator
Check out Joe Bastardi’s Saturday Summary if you are interested in hearing his case for the cold coming back after a couple of weeks of warmth.
Video Link
Video Link
This is 18z GFS
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Slowly starting to grind through the all the little winter storms we've had this month in NC.
Here's the map for the event on December 8th:
Here's the map for the event on December 8th:
NBAcentel
Member
