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Pattern December Discussion

December Discussion

This is just a CFSv2 12z clown map of snow and only for entertainment. It's the system on the 17ish...says it's going to be a crusher...LOL!
a5db41bc4a857ab3be5da0574ab7cd7a.jpg



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Storm5 link said:
18z gfs less press with the cold and no second wave like the 12z para had . yes I'll search for anything before the pattern goes to S*** next week

18z
e4202ee0ec47d437b9302e8f0d590324.jpg


12z para
8262e34b054cb6146178d0b2db481ff1.jpg


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12Z Para is about 36 hours of ip/zr across northern AL/MS into TN with the second wave.

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18z looked better in the LR. Christmas is cooler as well.
 
So many different solutions.  I'll tell you what though.  If we get the SER curse again (which seems likely) and we can't get rid of it, we are screwed.  Ridging isn't always bad, but I've seen some potent looks on modeling of it.
 
Starburst link said:
So many different solutions.  I'll tell you what though.  If we get the SER curse again (which seems likely) and we can't get rid of it, we are screwed.  Ridging isn't always bad, but I've seen some potent looks on modeling of it.
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Totally agree...


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In about 2 -3 days, we will be in NAM range! It's deadly at 48 hours! :)
 
Aubighitter link said:
Glad I found you guys again
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Welcome.  You got here just in time to see the first melt-downs of the season.  I've calmed down though.  No more melt-downs from me. :p
 
One thing is for sure - with the Para continually spitting out interesting weather for many of our areas about a week from now - we won't have to wait long to see if it is worth paying attention to the Para or not ... my money unfortunately would be on the Not.. but stranger things have happened
 
Starburst link said:
[quote author=SoutheastRidge link=topic=2.msg1370#msg1370 date=1481490557]
[quote author=Starburst link=topic=2.msg1369#msg1369 date=1481490373]
[quote author=SoutheastRidge link=topic=2.msg1368#msg1368 date=1481490309]
How reliable is the GFS Para ?
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We have no idea yet.  I love how we have a GFS Para right now since we are getting rid of the model as a whole in 2019.
Guess they are pumping as much as they can out of it.
[/quote] I wonder why they are waiting so long to get rid of the model ? Why not just get rid of it in 2017 ? Also, are they replacing it with another model ?
[/quote]

Yes.  I suppose we have to wait until they get it working correctly and bugs worked out.  Yeah, it's something like the NGGPS.  I was hearing they were keeping the name "GFS" for it, but it's an entirely new thing.

There is a bill that is being pushed through that will give much more money to weather development if the president elect will sign it.. and I don't see him not.  Read over it and it's mainly computing power, better severe warnings, etc.  I didn't see much of anything about climate change etc in the bill.. that would of course cluster it up with the new administration.  So hopefully we'll have that signed by Feb.
[/quote]

If I'm not mistaken that bill is dead for now. A Senator from FLA changed something in it and the House of Reps did not vote again before they adjourned. The story did say that it would very likely be brought up again. BTW, I think this bill may have included a new NEXRAD radar somewhere in central NC.
 
SD link said:
How's JB today? Hugging the Hungarian?

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Said December to remember was for everybody but the SE!
On Twitter
 
Tarheel1 link said:
[quote author=SD link=topic=2.msg1397#msg1397 date=1481500949]
How's JB today? Hugging the Hungarian?

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Said December to remember was for everybody but the SE!
On Twitter
[/quote]
In other words let me target my subscriber base...got it. 

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SD link said:
[quote author=Tarheel1 link=topic=2.msg1398#msg1398 date=1481502303]
[quote author=SD link=topic=2.msg1397#msg1397 date=1481500949]
How's JB today? Hugging the Hungarian?

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Click to expand...
Said December to remember was for everybody but the SE!
On Twitter
[/quote]
In other words let me target my subscriber base...got it. 

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[/quote]

Yep. He said the SE will be AN for December.


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SD link said:
[quote author=Tarheel1 link=topic=2.msg1398#msg1398 date=1481502303]
[quote author=SD link=topic=2.msg1397#msg1397 date=1481500949]
How's JB today? Hugging the Hungarian?

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Said December to remember was for everybody but the SE!
On Twitter
[/quote]
In other words let me target my subscriber base...got it. 

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[/quote]
100 percent . he isn't dumb, he knows how to play to his crowd

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to be honest... with way teleconnections start to line out in long range... I almost bout ready to punt December to be honest... but im not giving up by no means either... hopefully things get better heading to january ;)
 
Not sure bout everyone else but here imby we are -1.4 for the young season so far. Willing to bet by next sunday we are sitting at-2 to -3 at a minimum. Throw in a shot at a winter weather advisory for some sleet , ice next weekend and that's about all I can ask for in December. I don't think Greensboro and RDU are going to end up above normal for December, regardless what JB Says. Could be wrong but the month is 2/3 rds the way over next sunday.
 
  Just had over 5 inches of rain, and the past two nights got cold..I like this winter so far.  Get some sleet to show up after Xmas, when it actually could happen, and I'll like it even better.  T
 
Thinking about making my own snow machine, then call it the winter.crappy, crappy, crap crapity First half Dec pattern
 
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