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Pattern December Discussion

RollTide18 link said:
But Spann said the cold may come back later in Jan into Feb  ;D
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JHS said it won't get below 35 degrees in MS,GA, and SC, until atleast February, and he's never been wrong!! :)
 
Happy new year from the weeklies
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I won't be watching the 00z gfs tonight . It will no doubt be a disappointment compared to the 18z run . We probably won't see another run like that this winter. that block was sick. I'll be looping the 18z 500 mb at 930 as the 00z rolls out

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Storm5 link said:
I won't be watching the 00z gfs tonight . It will no doubt be a disappointment compared to the 18z run . We probably won't see another run like that this winter. that block was sick. I'll be looping the 18z 500 mb at 930 as the 00z rolls out

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HAHA!


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Storm5 link said:
I won't be watching the 00z gfs tonight . It will no doubt be a disappointment compared to the 18z run . We probably won't see another run like that this winter. that block was sick. I'll be looping the 18z 500 mb at 930 as the 00z rolls out

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Not much difference through 138 vs the 18z run.  I'm not going to stay up but that's a good start

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Things must be good if WxSouth is coming out of retirement.

https://twitter.com/WxSouth/status/812108235570298884
 
0z GFS not as great! Still decent, but not as cold, no real fantasy storms
 
accu35 link said:
[quote author=Tarheel1 link=topic=2.msg3126#msg3126 date=1482470922]
0z GFS not as great! Still decent, but not as cold, no real fantasy storms
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oz GFS was great, more energy
[/quote]
Not as cold
 
For now, the increasingly poleward north Pacific anticyclone has stopped in the EPS, but continues on in the GEFS, and overall the look on GEFS & EPS continues to improve in early january as the Canadian Rockies are seeded with incredibly cold, siberian air beginning late next week & beyond... There's definitely been a non-negeligible trend towards a larger far north Atlantic/Greenland block after the new year over the past day or two. The trough that will bring us a transient, continental polar airmass around New Year's eve should help kick off a major anticyclonic wave break in the far north Atlantic that may eventually set off this Greenland block during the first week of January. Something worth watching over the coming days...

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Storm, after last nights runs, you won't have to worry about that trade in!0z euro and 6z GFS , I'm referring! :)
 
Webberweather53 link said:
For now, the increasingly poleward north Pacific anticyclone has stopped in the EPS, but continues on in the GEFS, and overall the look on GEFS & EPS continues to improve in early january as the Canadian Rockies are seeded with incredibly cold, siberian air beginning late next week & beyond... There's definitely been a non-negeligible trend towards a larger far north Atlantic/Greenland block after the new year over the past day or two. The trough that will bring us a transient, continental polar airmass around New Year's eve should help kick off a major anticyclonic wave break in the far north Atlantic that may eventually set off this Greenland block during the first week of January. Something worth watching over the coming days...

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that will be interesting for sure . I'm still very sceptical of the NAO developing. But a wave break as you said could at least help kick it off

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Tarheel1 link said:
Storm, after last nights runs, you won't have to worry about that trade in!0z euro and 6z GFS , I'm referring! :)
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just looked lol. Safe till 12z .....

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The cutoff off of the west coast will be a big player for the first week of January. The gfs retrogrades it under the ridge building into AK the euro crashes it into the west coast. The euro solution would result in a quickly moderating pattern across the country the gfs would support a cooler look

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If the energy near Vegas at 210 doesn't cutoff weenie run incoming

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Looks like it's going to get obliterated by the pv going hulk smash

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CMC has a storm around day ten that drops 2-4 inches of rain and then hours later we are in single digits... lol
 
SD link said:
Looks like it's going to get obliterated by the pv going hulk smash

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Bet the para will be fun!!
 
Man, New Year's Eve, is gonna be numbing cold in NC, atleast!!!!
 
Storm5 link said:
12z euro wants to know what all the fuss is about

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Yep, in and out, just like last shot! And will probably will trend warmer as we near the 30th timeframe, than what's shown now!?
 
looking at the ensembles it's pretty clear the GFS rushing the hell out of a possible pattern change

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12z runs....which one looks like it's rushing the pattern??? Valid January 2nd

12z gfs
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12z euro
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12z cmc
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Now back to looking at the mid month pattern shift!!  :wreath: :grinchlist: :grinchlist:
Feliz Navidad!!
 
Tarheel1 link said:
Now back to looking at the mid month pattern shift!!  :wreath: :grinchlist: :grinchlist:
Feliz Navidad!!
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Then we can look into Mid February.  Never ending cycle!
 
Starburst link said:
[quote author=Tarheel1 link=topic=2.msg3152#msg3152 date=1482519851]
Now back to looking at the mid month pattern shift!!  :wreath: :grinchlist: :grinchlist:
Feliz Navidad!!
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Then we can look into Mid February.  Never ending cycle!
[/quote]
Back loaded winter?
 
snowman63 link said:
[quote author=Starburst link=topic=2.msg3153#msg3153 date=1482520133]
[quote author=Tarheel1 link=topic=2.msg3152#msg3152 date=1482519851]
Now back to looking at the mid month pattern shift!!  :wreath: :grinchlist: :grinchlist:
Feliz Navidad!!
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Then we can look into Mid February.  Never ending cycle!
[/quote]
Back loaded winter?
[/quote] There's no such thing as a front loaded winter anymore.
 
SoutheastRidge link said:
[quote author=snowman63 link=topic=2.msg3154#msg3154 date=1482521036]
[quote author=Starburst link=topic=2.msg3153#msg3153 date=1482520133]
[quote author=Tarheel1 link=topic=2.msg3152#msg3152 date=1482519851]
Now back to looking at the mid month pattern shift!!  :wreath: :grinchlist: :grinchlist:
Feliz Navidad!!
Click to expand...

Then we can look into Mid February.  Never ending cycle!
[/quote]
Back loaded winter?
[/quote] There's no such thing as a front loaded winter anymore.

I disagree...IMO, up until mid-Jan is front loaded, mid-Jan until mid-Feb is middle loaded and through March is back loaded. :wreath:
[/quote]
 
JB's bathtub might be extra foamy after that run! :(
 
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