Tarheel1 link said:
The jury is still out as to how long the SE ridge dominated pattern would last. Looking at past neutral negative or weak La Niña winters with a SE ridge dominated December, it hasn't always persisted through the entire winter. More often than not, it hasn't. If the rest of winter turns out like 1924-5, the rest of winter would turn out pretty lame for most in the SE US. However, on the other extreme, if it were to turn out like 1961-2 or 2013-4, Jan and/or Feb would provide a good dose of winter. Therefore, it would be ridiculously premature to call winter over even if Dec were to end up uneventful. By the way, ATL on average has received only 15% of its seasonal SN/IP in Dec over the last 100 years with only 18 of these 100 Decembers having any measurable SN/IP.
In terms of major ZR's/sleets since 1879, they've had only three major ones before the last week of Dec vs more than 30 of them happening anytime from around Christmas through late March. A major ZR and/or sleet there and nearby is imo the biggest threat this winter due to it being a neutral negative (NN) ENSO. The two NN's since 1895 that I could find with a SE ridge dominated Dec were 1961-2 and 2013-4. Both produced a major ATL ZR later in winter (along with generous SN and/or IP). There have been many other NN winters with a major ZR and/or sleet.
For more details I posted about the potential for Jan+, go to the "Winter Discussion" thread and see them there, if interested.
