Storm5
Member
the control is a weeklies porn specialSD link said:
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Pattern December Discussion
- Thread starter Storm5
- Start date
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Storm5
Member
it might be less warm but it's sure not a cold pattern. but then again it's the weeklies so ......SD link said:
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it might be less warm but it's sure not a cold pattern. but then again it's the weeklies so ......Storm5 link said:
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[/quote]
That's why I said less warm lol. I'm not that sold on the weeklies pattern. It's the same one the models have shown ad nauseum in the extended and in general it hasn't verified very often.
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ATLwxfan
Member
If we're spending more than one post on the weeklies, we have big problems.
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Storm5
Member
we have been talking about the weeklies for over a month . they are fun to look at, that's allATLWxFan link said:
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Storm5
Member
it might be less warm but it's sure not a cold pattern. but then again it's the weeklies so ......SD link said:
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[/quote]
That's why I said less warm lol. I'm not that sold on the weeklies pattern. It's the same one the models have shown ad nauseum in the extended and in general it hasn't verified very often.
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[/quote]
that's a good point
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whatalife
Moderator
it might be less warm but it's sure not a cold pattern. but then again it's the weeklies so ......Storm5 link said:
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[/quote]
That's why I said less warm lol. I'm not that sold on the weeklies pattern. It's the same one the models have shown ad nauseum in the extended and in general it hasn't verified very often.
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[/quote]
that's a good point
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[/quote]
I'm hugging the control if for no other reason then it shows me what I want...HAHA!
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Storm5
Member
it might be less warm but it's sure not a cold pattern. but then again it's the weeklies so ......whatalife link said:
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[/quote]
That's why I said less warm lol. I'm not that sold on the weeklies pattern. It's the same one the models have shown ad nauseum in the extended and in general it hasn't verified very often.
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[/quote]
that's a good point
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[/quote]
I'm hugging the control if for no other reason then it shows me what I want...HAHA!
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[/quote]
that a boy . all in
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whatalife
Moderator
it might be less warm but it's sure not a cold pattern. but then again it's the weeklies so ......Storm5 link said:
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[/quote]
That's why I said less warm lol. I'm not that sold on the weeklies pattern. It's the same one the models have shown ad nauseum in the extended and in general it hasn't verified very often.
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[/quote]
that's a good point
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[/quote]
I'm hugging the control if for no other reason then it shows me what I want...HAHA!
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[/quote]
that a boy . all in
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[/quote]
Until Thursday when it shows a blow torch and it'll be on to the next model that shows me what I like
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Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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Maybe some light at the end of the tunnel...whatalife link said:
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[/quote]
Be careful, it's a train!
tennessee storm
Member
i know everyone is on the winter band wagon and i don't blame them... after all its December... but that look on the 18zgfs is trouble... its developing another slp back over Arkansas appears which would aid in backing of the surface winds... with plenty shear to work with appears... course were just in truncation with this... but were creeping closer...lets see if the euro meets up with the gfs more by coming more south with slp... just something to keep eye on while winter takes a pretty good break it appears for now...
tennessee storm
Member
guess I am for now the only severe weather monger on the forum for now maybe... calling fred ... perry... andy...tim.... loltennessee storm link said:
Storm5
Member
guess I am for now the only severe weather monger on the forum for now maybe... calling fred ... perry... andy...tim.... loltennessee storm link said:
[/quote]
no there are plenty on here your not alone, fear not
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Just what we need. A break in the cold. You would think after a solid 6 months of above normal temps we could manage at least a couple months of below normal temps. Apparently it's much easier to get sustained AN temps than it is to get sustained BN temps around here.
Brent
Member
I'm waiting for the GFS to trend the Christmas low to the north pole :
VegasEagle
Member
Crap! No way! :-[Brent link said:I'm waiting for the GFS to trend the Christmas low to the north pole :
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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On this run, the cad areas are saved from the Christmas torch, atleast through the 27th
Brent
Member
don't even bother looking at the GFS beyond Christmas. Barf.
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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Got to have a January thaw, it's gonna be ok! The bathtub tub is slowly filling back up and will be ready to slosh and roll after Jan 15Brent link said:
Storm5
Member
I thought it was an improvement which isn't saying much with how bad the runs have been . Even starts going nuts in the NAO region . but I'm sure when I wake the 06z will look nothing like itBrent link said:
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Brent
Member
I thought it was an improvement which isn't saying much with how bad the runs have been . Even starts going nuts in the NAO region . but I'm sure when I wake the 06z will look nothing like itStorm5 link said:
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[/quote]
Maybe it is better there but the scope and length of the torch is what got me lol
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This, is certainly not the configuration one should be looking for to precede a cold WQBO/-ENSO February, hopefully it reverses *completely* & persists by and after mid-month, but I'm not holding breath (yet)... For the few years in this background that actually turned out BN here, we need to see eastern Atlantic/Scandinavian blocking in concert w/ a SE Canada trough (or some semblance of one) in January, we'll have the exact opposite of that to kick off the month.
BTW, in case anyone missed it here was a winter forecast I put out with one of my meteorology friends several weeks ago. Thus far, couldn't be happier with how December is forecast to pan out.
http://ncwxmichaelmugrage.weebly.com/blog/category/winter-weather-outlook-20162017
BTW, in case anyone missed it here was a winter forecast I put out with one of my meteorology friends several weeks ago. Thus far, couldn't be happier with how December is forecast to pan out.
http://ncwxmichaelmugrage.weebly.com/blog/category/winter-weather-outlook-20162017
whatalife
Moderator
May hour 384 on the 06z GFS get your hopes up until the 12z run...LOL!
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Lol only 16 days away!whatalife link said:May hour 384 on the 06z GFS get your hopes up until the 12z run...LOL!
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Maybe signs of change as we move towards the New Years. AO, after it tops near 5 in next few days, the mean takes it down towards neutral to negative.
The NAO also looks to head neutral with few going negative and the PNA heading towards positive territory around the 1st.
The GFS MJO forecast still has us moving towards favorable phases 8 and 1 then possible continue to rotate to 2.
I know it's the parallel operational GFS post day 10 but it really starts to develop nice blocking up towards Greenland and establish some ringing out through the remainder of the run.
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The NAO also looks to head neutral with few going negative and the PNA heading towards positive territory around the 1st.
The GFS MJO forecast still has us moving towards favorable phases 8 and 1 then possible continue to rotate to 2.
I know it's the parallel operational GFS post day 10 but it really starts to develop nice blocking up towards Greenland and establish some ringing out through the remainder of the run.
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Cad Wedge NC
Member
Lol only 16 days away!
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[/quote]
Yep, it will be gone at 12z. However, as some have pointed out, this is what to look for if you want a winter storm in the southeast. It will not verify as shown, but I see opportunities coming for us down the road. This is the first of many long-range threats in Jan-Feb
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[/quote]
Yep, it will be gone at 12z. However, as some have pointed out, this is what to look for if you want a winter storm in the southeast. It will not verify as shown, but I see opportunities coming for us down the road. This is the first of many long-range threats in Jan-Feb
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
I'd gladly take a repeat of that stretch in January 2000 and call it a winter. We can have awful patterns all winter, but give me a low blowing up like the GFS is showing for Jan 5, and I'll take it all the time. As long as we stay active and don't have a full blown torch with temps in the 60s and close to 70, I think we'll be okay. Just keep it close to normal and some precip chances every 7 to 10 days and I think we'll score once or twice with some winter storms.
Looks like MJO forecast from the GFS....falls in love
Re: December Discussion
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It is nice. I have a question about the MJO. Is there any correlation with mjo moving into the favorable phases, and the development of high latitude blocking or a +pna/-epo? And if so how far downstream do you start to see the effects after it moves into those favorable phases for the southeast?SD link said:
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Cad Wedge NC
Member
Re: December Discussion
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[/quote]
The effects are more rapid than you think. It would be noticed within a week or two.
It is nice. I have a question about the MJO. Is there any correlation with mjo moving into the favorable phases, and the development of high latitude blocking or a +pna/-epo? And if so how far downstream do you start to see the effects after it moves into those favorable phases for the southeast?StoneMtnWx link said:
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[/quote]
The effects are more rapid than you think. It would be noticed within a week or two.
Looks like after New Years, the conditions are starting to look conductive for snow.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
SD link said:
Get that MJO mojo!
Brick Tamland link said:
Get that MJO mojo!
[/quote]
I'm not sure I am ready to jump into that forecast with both feet though I wouldn't be surprised to see some forced pacific ridging toward the new year
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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SD link said:
Get that MJO mojo!
[/quote]
I'm not sure I am ready to jump into that forecast with both feet though I wouldn't be surprised to see some forced pacific ridging toward the new year
[/quote]
And that's good right? For east cold and snow? Forced ridging cause of the +PNA?
Tarheel1 link said:
Get that MJO mojo!
[/quote]
I'm not sure I am ready to jump into that forecast with both feet though I wouldn't be surprised to see some forced pacific ridging toward the new year
[/quote]
And that's good right? For east cold and snow? Forced ridging cause of the +PNA?
[/quote]
It certainly doesn't hurt. We will see though, it might be one of those quick bursts of ridging where we could score a wintry look in the midst of a warm pattern. I think the more likely option though is just less SE ridging
Storm5
Member
Tarheel1 link said:
Get that MJO mojo!
[/quote]
I'm not sure I am ready to jump into that forecast with both feet though I wouldn't be surprised to see some forced pacific ridging toward the new year
[/quote]
And that's good right? For east cold and snow? Forced ridging cause of the +PNA?
[/quote]
a +pna is no slam dunk for cold in the east . Obviously the chances go up but the ridge could setup too far West and dump the cold in the central US vs eastern . of course we are talking about mjo forecasts which bust all the time .
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Storm5 link said:
Get that MJO mojo!
[/quote]
I'm not sure I am ready to jump into that forecast with both feet though I wouldn't be surprised to see some forced pacific ridging toward the new year
[/quote]
And that's good right? For east cold and snow? Forced ridging cause of the +PNA?
[/quote]
a +pna is no slam dunk for cold in the east . Obviously the chances go up but the ridge could setup too far West and dump the cold in the central US vs eastern . of course we are talking about mjo forecasts which bust all the time .
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[/quote]
With the way this year is going I would favor a cold drop into the west then bleed east
Storm5
Member
SD link said:
Get that MJO mojo!
[/quote]
I'm not sure I am ready to jump into that forecast with both feet though I wouldn't be surprised to see some forced pacific ridging toward the new year
[/quote]
And that's good right? For east cold and snow? Forced ridging cause of the +PNA?
[/quote]
a +pna is no slam dunk for cold in the east . Obviously the chances go up but the ridge could setup too far West and dump the cold in the central US vs eastern . of course we are talking about mjo forecasts which bust all the time .
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[/quote]
With the way this year is going I would favor a cold drop into the west then bleed east
[/quote]
I agree with that and honestly, that would work out better for us vs a true dump in the east as it would crush everything and we would have to hope we score on the back side when it lifts out.
I'm all for bleeding cold . Can get some big overrunning events that way
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Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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SD link said:
Get that MJO mojo!
[/quote]
I'm not sure I am ready to jump into that forecast with both feet though I wouldn't be surprised to see some forced pacific ridging toward the new year
[/quote]
And that's good right? For east cold and snow? Forced ridging cause of the +PNA?
[/quote]
a +pna is no slam dunk for cold in the east . Obviously the chances go up but the ridge could setup too far West and dump the cold in the central US vs eastern . of course we are talking about mjo forecasts which bust all the time .
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[/quote]
With the way this year is going I would favor a cold drop into the west then bleed east
[/quote]
It's been almost non stop cold in the west since November! Seattle and Portland, have had more snow than Boston and NY so far