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Pattern December Discussion

Bad news for NE GA. (CMC Ice accumulation)

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Remember, that heavy rain will cause temps to raise (latent heating) so the 2 inch amounts are likely over-done.  Still a nasty storm.
 
Anyone got good maps of around the 312 hour GFS... on NCEP it looks real interesting here. I've been spoiled by tropical tidbits lol
 
Brent link said:
Anyone got good maps of around the 312 hour GFS... on NCEP it looks real interesting here. I've been spoiled by tropical tidbits lol
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Here is 312 from the 00z GFS:

312tx.gif
 
Going off of past experience on CAD events, I'm certain that if the Canadian were to be right about that 1041mb HP sitting up in Upstate NY at the onset of the storm, there's no way most of N.GA (including Atlanta) doesn't see some wintry mix even if the ultimate result is a changeover to a cold rain.

Honestly, the setup on the 00z Canadian reminds me a lot of that winter storm in January or February 2016 only better.
 
Weatherlover92 link said:
Going off of past experience on CAD events, I'm certain that if the Canadian were to be right about that 1041mb HP sitting up in Upstate NY at the onset of the storm, there's no way most of N.GA (including Atlanta) doesn't see some wintry mix even if the ultimate result is a changeover to a cold rain.

Honestly, the setup on the 00z Canadian reminds me a lot of that winter storm in January or February 2016 only better.
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Wedge conditions are generally under-estimated.  I did notice the surface low basically tracks across ATL on-top of ATL though.  Which I guess could cause too much WAA even into the lower levels.
 
Starburst link said:
[quote author=Brent link=topic=2.msg1288#msg1288 date=1481433447]
Anyone got good maps of around the 312 hour GFS... on NCEP it looks real interesting here. I've been spoiled by tropical tidbits lol
Click to expand...

Here is 312 from the 00z GFS:




Looks real interesting for Texas Panhandle!!
 
Thanks

Yeah that was close but not quite for DFW(maybe as it ends)... still I'm very intrigued by that timeframe and it's still fantasy land anyway.
 
I believe Delta said we would have an increased risk of ice storms this winter. We will see what happens. I'd rather have one in January so I can get a day off from class though lol.
 
Didn't expect any of the models to lock on a solution this far out for next weekend.  They will all go back and forth probably for a few more days.
 
Brick Tamland link said:
Didn't expect any of the models to lock on a solution this far out for next weekend.  They will all go back and forth probably for a fee more days.
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how many more days Brick Lol
 
So much for " front loaded" looking like balmy Christmas and hoping for a better pattern and blocking heading into January!? #EXCITED
 
Tarheel1 link said:
So much for " front loaded" looking like balmy Christmas and hoping for a better pattern and blocking heading into January!? #EXCITED
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I have a little more hope for this winter but not looking forward to a possible balmy Christmas.


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