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Pattern December Discussion

With the way this year is going I would favor a cold drop into the west then bleed east
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I agree with that and honestly, that would work out better for us vs a true dump in the east as it would crush everything and we would have to hope we score on the back side when it lifts out.

I'm all for bleeding cold . Can get some big overrunning events that way

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Well, as long as it's not too far west. Montana and the Dakotas sliding over to the NE is good. I would love to see gulf moisture over-running a dry arctic air mass.
 
SD link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg2859#msg2859 date=1482249129]
[quote author=Tarheel1 link=topic=2.msg2857#msg2857 date=1482247902]
[quote author=SD link=topic=2.msg2856#msg2856 date=1482247680]
[quote author=Brick Tamland link=topic=2.msg2855#msg2855 date=1482247276]
[quote author=SD link=topic=2.msg2851#msg2851 date=1482245207]
Looks like MJO forecast from the GFS....falls in love
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Get that MJO mojo!
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I'm not sure I am ready to jump into that forecast with both feet though I wouldn't be surprised to see some forced pacific ridging toward the new year
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And that's good right? For east cold and snow? Forced ridging cause of the +PNA?
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a +pna is no slam dunk for cold in the east . Obviously the chances go up but the ridge could setup too far West and dump the cold in the central US vs eastern . of course we are talking about mjo forecasts which bust all the time .

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With the way this year is going I would favor a cold drop into the west then bleed east
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That fits very well with the way I think things are going. Those big cold shots will not slam into the east this winter. They will come in over MT and ND and then drop straight south to TX. Looking ahead, if things continue on this path Jan is probably a lost cause, but for the Carolinas Feb could be very nice.
 
That fits very well with the way I think things are going. Those big cold shots will not slam into the east this winter. They will come in over MT and ND and then drop straight south to TX. Looking ahead, if things continue on this path Jan is probably a lost cause, but for the Carolinas Feb could be very nice.
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I just don't see how you can possibly think that Jan is a lost cause??
 
Cad Wedge NC link said:
That fits very well with the way I think things are going. Those big cold shots will not slam into the east this winter. They will come in over MT and ND and then drop straight south to TX. Looking ahead, if things continue on this path Jan is probably a lost cause, but for the Carolinas Feb could be very nice.
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I just don't see how you can possibly think that Jan is a lost cause??
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The only thing I'm basing this on is analogs and mine is 1988-89. Winter finally came in Feb 1989. Nothing ever works out exactly the same so I could very well be wrong.
 
ATLWxFan link said:
Torchmas is looking less and less impressive.  Good ol' CAD.


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That's been happening all winter. The models show a warm up more than 7 days out only for them to back off when we get closer.
 
And even when we've supposedly had great patterns we still ended up with nothing to show for up. And sometimes we have had big storms when most of the winter has been in a supposedly bad pattern. I don't think it really matters either way anymore. We're still going to need that small window of time either way when everything comes together right to get a winter storm here.
 
The most reliable MJO forecasting model, the EPS, still more or less has the MJO getting over to the left side of the circle near New Year's. Inside the left side of the circle or barely outside the left side of the circle have had the coldest SE temperatures when all averaged out since 1975 though that, of course, doesn't mean it is always cold. There are sometimes warm periods during MJO phases that average chilly because the MJO is but one of a group of factors.
 
ATLWxFan link said:
Torchmas is looking less and less impressive.  Good ol' CAD.


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Yep. It came back a bit a couple days ago but it's backing off of it again. Looks like it's going to be seasonable, maybe slightly below then.
 
Well the GFS is still trying to look good in the long range....  I think we will be just fine after first of the year.  Few good winter threats in January and bring on an early Spring (older I get less I like long periods of cold Lol)
 
Euro going to be interesting for Christmas day... that's a big change for the CAD areas on the GFS (never gets out of the 40's here) and Euro been advertising mid upper 60's.  I'd love to have 40's with some light rain, great day to stay in, hangout with fam, open gifts, drink some coffee, play some cards and watch some football!
 
Brick Tamland link said:
And even when we've supposedly had great patterns we still ended up with nothing to show for up. And sometimes we have had big storms when most of the winter has been in a supposedly bad pattern. I don't think it really matters either way anymore. We're still going to need that small window of time either way when everything comes together right to get a winter storm here.
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This. Last winter would have been one of my worst since I've lived here if it weren't for one 12 inch snow storm in late January. As we all remember last winter was very warm but up here we got the perfect set up for one of the biggest snow storms the Nashville area has ever seen.
 
Saw on Facebook this morning where weed trimmer is calling for a Christmas day severe outbreak in the midwest.
 
metwannabe link said:
Euro going to be interesting for Christmas day... that's a big change for the CAD areas on the GFS (never gets out of the 40's here) and Euro been advertising mid upper 60's.  I'd love to have 40's with some light rain, great day to stay in, hangout with fam, open gifts, drink some coffee, play some cards and watch some football!
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now your talking , that sounds fun

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74112594.jpg
 
Cad Wedge NC link said:
That fits very well with the way I think things are going. Those big cold shots will not slam into the east this winter. They will come in over MT and ND and then drop straight south to TX. Looking ahead, if things continue on this path Jan is probably a lost cause, but for the Carolinas Feb could be very nice.
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I just don't see how you can possibly think that Jan is a lost cause??
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It's hard dealing with a Shetley!
 
ATLWxFan link said:
[quote author=SD link=topic=2.msg2882#msg2882 date=1482261618]
Euro is a snoozer
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Better than a blowtorch though.


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Yeah. It wasn't a terrible run and days 7-10 had some nice developments across the NHEM.
 
SD link said:
[quote author=ATLWxFan link=topic=2.msg2883#msg2883 date=1482262827]
[quote author=SD link=topic=2.msg2882#msg2882 date=1482261618]
Euro is a snoozer
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Better than a blowtorch though.


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If call that a win at this point! That could get us into a colder patter the end of the first week of Jan, until having to wait for mid month!

Yeah. It wasn't a terrible run and days 7-10 had some nice developments across the NHEM.
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GaWx link said:
The most reliable MJO forecasting model, the EPS, still more or less has the MJO getting over to the left side of the circle near New Year's. Inside the left side of the circle or barely outside the left side of the circle have had the coldest SE temperatures when all averaged out since 1975 though that, of course, doesn't mean it is always cold. There are sometimes warm periods during MJO phases that average chilly because the MJO is but one of a group of factors.
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I don't know if it is a coincidence regarding the EPS MJO prediction for the favorable inside left side of circle, but the brand new EPS looks astoundingly better than the prior run late 6-10 and through the entire 11-15.
 
One of these years we're going to be tracking winter weather instead of pattern changes like the good 'ol days. 
 
Storm5 link said:
the CFSV2 will make cold weather fans cry in January if it's correct . #TORCH

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It's never right when it was showing cold patterns these last few years, so hopefully it will continue being wrong!
 
12z eps starts to build ridging over Alaska and the pole late in the run. sure would be nice but I bet it's being rushed

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Storm5 link said:
the CFSV2 will make cold weather fans cry in January if it's correct . #TORCH

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That's fine, January isn't our month away. February is usually our coldest and snowiest month.
 
Re: December Discussion

SoutheastRidge link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg2888#msg2888 date=1482267525]
the CFSV2 will make cold weather fans cry in January if it's correct . #TORCH

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That's fine, January isn't our month away. February is usually our coldest and snowiest month.
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January is the coldest month of the year for Atlanta and averages the highest amount of precip in the DJF months

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It's not surprising the MJO pulse over the Maritime Continent/West Pacific has suddenly fizzled as it approached western hemisphere given interference with ENSO background, and the wave filtering diagrams are now largely in limbo as the remnants (in the form of CCKWs) is now pushing thru the western hemisphere, if the tropical forcing were to return back into the Indian Ocean/Maritime Continent, we'd likely see the poleward Aleutian/Bering Sea ridge return & start dumping Siberian air into northwestern North America again, which may occur by the 2nd week of January. As if the AO wasnt positive enough in the short-medium range, the overall N hem configuration thru the first week of January is a fairly classic precursor pattern to large-scale +AO/NAO regimes with a formidable Barents/Kara Sea trough & Aleutian ridge dominating. Hence, we can likely assume that the AO will remain positive, and potentially significantly so at that, thru at least mid-January... As far as I'm concerned, apart from the occasional transient continental polar/seasonably cool airmass intrusions, unless the Aleutian ridge gains appreciable amplitude, and migrates poleward & northeastward into Alaska, (which in of itself if is a very risky given the NINA/-ENSO bgd & doesnt fit with canonical far north pacific rossby wave progression)...we're liable to remain above-well above normal for the next 2-3 weeks or so.
 
Storm5 link said:
12z eps starts to build ridging over Alaska and the pole late in the run. sure would be nice but I bet it's being rushed

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It probably is being rushed since it was a sudden change from its prior runs. However, IF it happens to be right, might we be seeing what happened late Dec/early Jan in 2013-4, another neutral negative ENSO with a strong SE ridge and strongly +AO in Dec.?? I'm not betting on it but this is on the analog table.
 
Pretty interesting freak lake effect snow event occurred earlier today down in Jackson, Mississippi. Definitely will be an interesting case study

Screen-Shot-2016-12-20-at-4.25.06-PM-1024x845.png
 
SoutheastRidge link said:
How much snow did Jackson get ? It's 50 degrees there now so I imagine it's gone by now.
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Most reports, pictures, and observations I've seen in the area ranged anywhere from a trace to a dusting, not a huge event, but definitely unexpected and exceptionally unusual for this region
 
Well, what do you know. Not only was the 12Z EPS a big step in the right direction but also the 18Z GFS looks very nice as the SE ridge exits near 12/27 and doesn't return. Accompanying this are heights that build nicely over the high latitudes. This kind of sudden flip is what happened between Dec of 2013 and Jan of 2014. I might add that the MJO in January of 2014 started off favorably within the left side of the circle, which is similar to the EPS prediction.

So, similar ENSO, Dec. SE ridge/cold much of rest of country , Dec strong +AO, and late Dec MJO to 2013.
 
It's only one operational run, but that's definitely a pattern you would want to see in January (to preclude a cold Feb) & one of the few ways we can remain BN despite increasingly unfavorable NINA/WQBO climo as winter progresses
 
Webberweather53 link said:
It's only one operational run, but that's definitely a pattern you would want to see in January (to preclude a cold Feb) & one of the few ways we can remain BN despite increasingly unfavorable NINA/WQBO climo as winter progresses
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Also, the 18Z GEFS is joining the 12Z EPS in coming in much improved vs earlier GEFS/EPS runs. It is almost as if a switch was  just turned on.
 
GaWx link said:
[quote author=Webberweather53 link=topic=2.msg2900#msg2900 date=1482275722]
It's only one operational run, but that's definitely a pattern you would want to see in January (to preclude a cold Feb) & one of the few ways we can remain BN despite increasingly unfavorable NINA/WQBO climo as winter progresses
Click to expand...

Also, the 18Z GEFS is joining the 12Z EPS in coming in much improved vs earlier GEFS/EPS runs. It is almost as if a switch was  just turned on.
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Looks to get to normal or below for the SE, from about Dec 30- End of the run of 18z and fairly wet! Almost looks ninoish on that run, with a lot of southern sliders! Keep that going and get some real cold involved and we will be cooking with gas
 
GaWx link said:
Well, what do you know. Not only was the 12Z EPS a big step in the right direction but also the 18Z GFS looks very nice as the SE ridge exits near 12/27 and doesn't return. Accompanying this are heights that build nicely over the high latitudes. This kind of sudden flip is what happened between Dec of 2013 and Jan of 2014. I might add that the MJO in January of 2014 started off favorably within the left side of the circle, which is similar to the EPS prediction.

So, similar ENSO, Dec. SE ridge/cold much of rest of country , Dec strong +AO, and late Dec MJO to 2013.
Click to expand...

That's pretty far out but it's not exactly lala land so it may be on to something. It'll be interesting to see if it appears again in the next two days on the model runs.
 
GaWx link said:
[quote author=Webberweather53 link=topic=2.msg2900#msg2900 date=1482275722]
It's only one operational run, but that's definitely a pattern you would want to see in January (to preclude a cold Feb) & one of the few ways we can remain BN despite increasingly unfavorable NINA/WQBO climo as winter progresses
Click to expand...

Also, the 18Z GEFS is joining the 12Z EPS in coming in much improved vs earlier GEFS/EPS runs. It is almost as if a switch was  just turned on.
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Hope this the pt of some good trends moving forward. At this pt I'm hopeful but not overly optimistic just yet. Let's see how things look after a few more runs...


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I find it humerous how the mood swings on this forum from day to day. One day its gloom and doom the next day everyone is excited. Tomorrow will probably be another gloom and doom day.
 
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