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Pattern December Discussion

SD link said:
I still feel pretty good about mid to late January, so what if we get a relaxation now
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Yeah, but waiting is the hardest part!
Great video by DT from WXRISK! Explains everything you ever need to know on all the working parts of the atmosphere and he goes out to the middle of January and is basically on the no cold pattern till atleast then, but gives great reasoning as to why! It was in a link someone posted in the MA section of the other forum! Great video
 
Lol, just having fun. I won't completely punt if January plays out right. As SD said he feels pretty good about mid to late January, I feel the same way. I guess it's good to get a relaxation right now then reload winter in January.
 
Last year we had all the indexes lined up and it didn't pan out for many of us. I think the game has changed. Our predictive tools and analogs are not as reliable. If a December previously set a precedent in the past it may not do so in the future.


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I don't ever start getting worried about a snowless winter until late January. And even then a lot of the good snows have happened in February and even a few in early March in the 10 years I've lived here.
 
ATLWxFan link said:
Last year we had all the indexes lined up and it didn't pan out for many of us. I think the game has changed. Our predictive tools and analogs are not as reliable. If a December previously set a precedent in the past it may not do so in the future.


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Been saying that the past few years. What we had in the past that would give us the best chance of snow here doesn't seem to work anymore. I don't think we really have any idea what we need now. Winter is just going to do what it's going to do here. The models are horrible past 5 days, and flip flop more than ever. There's no consistency in the models and the indicies anymore with regards to winter weather around here. The best they can show now is if there is a chance or no chance at all. What actually happens five days later is anyone's guess.
 
NorthGaWinter link said:
Save your time on the 12z gfs. It sucks
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actually it doesn't suck, it's actually showing better trough in East colder air around the 29th. Much better than previous runs, maybe a trend towards improvement
 
Pretty much sums up how I feel about winter right now....  I'm not excited. Lol

906671b2fdd9a68fcc9d4f76b46c6448.jpg


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olhausen link said:
I don't ever start getting worried about a snowless winter until late January. And even then a lot of the good snows have happened in February and even a few in early March in the 10 years I've lived here.
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I doubt you've ever had a snowless winter in Northern TN.
 
tennessee storm link said:
At least the 12z gfs has a nice severe Wx event around 231h to 240h... Least something watch for now .....
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I'll take severe wx over boring average weather anyday. If it's not gonna be cold in winter, then I at least want interesting weather of some kind, even if that means that it has to be warm to fuel severe storms.
 
tennessee storm link said:
At least the 12z gfs has a nice severe Wx event around 231h to 240h... Least something watch for now .....
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Only in the south would you see a severe weather event in almost the dead of winter.
 
JB, everybody's favorite, showed the "torch"coming the next few weeks, and said he called it that way !!!!LOFL! His words" I called December to remember and warm up last week of December " !! :(
Last call I heard was "December to remember and into January, a stretch of cold and wintry like we've havnt seen in years " !
 
SoutheastRidge link said:
[quote author=tennessee storm link=topic=2.msg2777#msg2777 date=1482170337]
At least the 12z gfs has a nice severe Wx event around 231h to 240h... Least something watch for now .....
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Only in the south would you see a severe weather event in almost the dead of winter.
[/quote]
I'll take thunder in January, according to Brick, that means snow in 10 days!!
#PATTERNCHANGE
 
Look I get disappointed as anyone hoping for snow/cold, we will have our chance. I have seen many winters where the pattern sucked in December then fun times in January, February.
 
SoutheastRidge link said:
[quote author=tennessee storm link=topic=2.msg2777#msg2777 date=1482170337]
At least the 12z gfs has a nice severe Wx event around 231h to 240h... Least something watch for now .....
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Only in the south would you see a severe weather event in almost the dead of winter.
[/quote]
it's not that uncommon IF it happens at all

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Tarheel1 link said:
JB, everybody's favorite, showed the "torch"coming the next few weeks, and said he called it that way !!!!LOFL! His words" I called December to remember and warm up last week of December " !! :(
Last call I heard was "December to remember and into January, a stretch of cold and wintry like we've havnt seen in years " !
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to be fair he did say warm up at the end of December back in November

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SoutheastRidge link said:
[quote author=olhausen link=topic=2.msg2767#msg2767 date=1482164436]
I don't ever start getting worried about a snowless winter until late January. And even then a lot of the good snows have happened in February and even a few in early March in the 10 years I've lived here.
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I doubt you've ever had a snowless winter in Northern TN.
[/quote]

I guess I worded that wrong. But I have had winters where I didn't get much more then an inch. While it's true most winters I will see at least 2-3 inches of snow, I have had one or two winters up here where I've got nothing but dustings and maybe an inch or two total on the season. In fact before these last two really good winters in a row up here the 2013/2014 winter I ended up with maybe an inch and a half. And Nashville itself which is just 35 minutes south of me has had winters recently of nothing but dustings to an inch.
 
Re: December Discussion

SD link said:
I sure hope I get some shorts and tshirts for Christmas. I will need them if the Euro is correct
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that's bigstick10 type of weather right there

i for one won't mind the warmup . I'm off 11 days ina row after Wednesday . golf , golf and more golf

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Storm5 link said:
[quote author=SD link=topic=2.msg2790#msg2790 date=1482175497]
I sure hope I get some shorts and tshirts for Christmas. I will need them if the Euro is correct
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that's bigstick10 type of weather right there

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[/quote]

I love the fact the 12z runs were so bad we had like 9 posts lol.
 
SD link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg2796#msg2796 date=1482179551]
[quote author=SD link=topic=2.msg2790#msg2790 date=1482175497]
I sure hope I get some shorts and tshirts for Christmas. I will need them if the Euro is correct
Click to expand...
that's bigstick10 type of weather right there

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[/quote]

I love the fact the 12z runs were so bad we had like 9 posts lol.
[/quote]
sometimes reality is hard to handle

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Storm5 link said:
[quote author=SD link=topic=2.msg2790#msg2790 date=1482175497]
I sure hope I get some shorts and tshirts for Christmas. I will need them if the Euro is correct
Click to expand...
that's bigstick10 type of weather right there

i for one won't mind the warmup . I'm off 11 days ina row after Wednesday . golf , golf and more golf

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[/quote]

But there's nothing like golf in 30° weather. Where every shot you make it stings your hands


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whatalife link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg2796#msg2796 date=1482179551]
[quote author=SD link=topic=2.msg2790#msg2790 date=1482175497]
I sure hope I get some shorts and tshirts for Christmas. I will need them if the Euro is correct
Click to expand...
that's bigstick10 type of weather right there

i for one won't mind the warmup . I'm off 11 days ina row after Wednesday . golf , golf and more golf

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[/quote]

But there's nothing like golf in 30° weather. Where every shot you make it stings your hands


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[/quote]
hahah very true

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Storm5 link said:
12z eps.....happy golfing

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Looks good to me. I am off the 22nd to the 3rd so I will gladly take the warm so I can do things instead of being stuck inside freezing. 
 
SD link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg2802#msg2802 date=1482180426]
12z eps.....happy golfing

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Looks good to me. I am off the 22nd to the 3rd so I will gladly take the warm so I can do things instead of being stuck inside freezing.
[/quote]
nice ! and you will save on the energy bill which will be nice for a few weeks. unless the bathtub sloshes again

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SD link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg2802#msg2802 date=1482180426]
12z eps.....happy golfing

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Click to expand...

Looks good to me. I am off the 22nd to the 3rd so I will gladly take the warm so I can do things instead of being stuck inside freezing.
[/quote]
Speaking of warm, where is Kory?? From TW?? Or is he already on here as another name?? Bigstick perhaps??!
 
Tarheel1 link said:
[quote author=SD link=topic=2.msg2803#msg2803 date=1482180672]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg2802#msg2802 date=1482180426]
12z eps.....happy golfing

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Click to expand...

Looks good to me. I am off the 22nd to the 3rd so I will gladly take the warm so I can do things instead of being stuck inside freezing.
[/quote]
Speaking of warm, where is Kory?? From TW?? Or is he already on here as another name?? Bigstick perhaps??!
[/quote]
Haha he is hibernating until March .

Would be a good guess about ole stick

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Storm5 link said:
could be worse SD ...... https://youtu.be/T4TxahKAqlg

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Bad form.
 
Storm5 link said:
could be worse SD ...... https://youtu.be/T4TxahKAqlg

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Are you sure this just isn't a metaphor of us trying to score a snow storm

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Well at least we'll have plenty of company in misery... Christmas Day could be the warmest day of the entire month here  :p

gfs_T2ma_us_25.png
 
Tonight's euro weeklies at least show a less warm pattern by mid Jan. The control is impressive

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SD link said:
Tonight's euro weeklies at least show a less warm pattern by mid Jan. The control is impressive

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Maybe some light at the end of the tunnel...


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