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Pattern December Discussion

Tarheel1 link said:
JB's back in the bathtub! Says two week torch is ok, 84/85 is his major analog now going forward! SMFH!
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can't believe he staying in the bathtub all winter

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Storm5 link said:
[quote author=Tarheel1 link=topic=2.msg2704#msg2704 date=1482107861]
JB's back in the bathtub! Says two week torch is ok, 84/85 is his major analog now going forward! SMFH!
Click to expand...
can't believe he staying in the bathtub all winter

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
[/quote]
Yeah, he's gonna get all shrivelly, and NOT from the cold!!
 
Storm5 link said:
[quote author=Tarheel1 link=topic=2.msg2704#msg2704 date=1482107861]
JB's back in the bathtub! Says two week torch is ok, 84/85 is his major analog now going forward! SMFH!
Click to expand...
can't believe he staying in the bathtub all winter

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
[/quote]well at least he will be good n clean this winter... lol  I personally think its about time to start a January discussion topic  though got some time left in this month still...
 
When does this 2 week torch begin ? I'm assuming after Christmas since I don't see any highs warmer than 57 here through Christmas.
 
I've said it before the torch is way overblown, maybe slightly above normal through Jan. I highly doubt a torch. Plenty of time to salvage winter in the mid-south. :snowflake:
 
snowcrazy link said:
I've said it before the torch is way overblown, maybe slightly above normal through Jan. I highly doubt a torch. Plenty of time to salvage winter in the mid-south. :snowflake:
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during winter time... any temp that's slightly above average is called a torch lot times by some professional mets... by using the word torch... folks take for granted were talking 70s or above...  when the word torch is used
 
Personally anything other than tis pattern now is better to me. Plain cold sucks if there is no winter fun to follow lol. Give me 60s or give me snow lol.

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I'm not too crazy about being in a cold pattern if it's also not a winter weather pattern. It would be nice to have some days in the 60s if we're not going to get snow.
 
tennessee storm link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg2707#msg2707 date=1482108411]
[quote author=Tarheel1 link=topic=2.msg2704#msg2704 date=1482107861]
JB's back in the bathtub! Says two week torch is ok, 84/85 is his major analog now going forward! SMFH!
Click to expand...
can't believe he staying in the bathtub all winter

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
[/quote]well at least he will be good n clean this winter... lol  I personally think its about time to start a January discussion topic  though got some time left in this month still...
[/quote]
I agree! Shake the December to forget funk! It's toast anyway!
 
SoutheastRidge link said:
[quote author=Brent link=topic=2.msg2700#msg2700 date=1482104413]
Wow I might can chase tornadoes on Christmas now I hate the gfs  :p
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So I guess the foot of snow in Oklahoma on Christmas is off the table now ?
[/quote]

Well for now... it is the GFS so it'll probably be back in some form. I hope. ::)
 
I think January will be good for Ark,Tenn and the northern parts of Miss,Ala, and Georgia. Maybe 2 or 3 good events for the mid-south. Maybe one good shot at a good event for northern Louisiana and southern Arkansas along with the central parts of Miss,Ala, and Georgia. North Carolina will end up having a few good events at least I believe, ranking somewhere between the mid-south and the central parts of the south. This doesn't count the higher elevations of North Carolina and extreme east Tennessee as they will get their share due to elevation. Of course I will be wrong but I just don't think this is the year for the deep south but there is always a chance, just don't think this is the year. Just my 2 cents for January and the first week or so of Febuary. :snowflake:
 
I wouldn't be so surprised if this month December is the coldest month this winter season... course that wont mean we cant have some nice winter events... I am just saying going by average wise... say December will end up colder than normal... January will be normal slightly above average... February will average way above norms temp wise... :)
 
tennessee storm link said:
I wouldn't be so surprised if this month December is the coldest month this winter season... course that wont mean we cant have some nice winter events... I am just saying going by average wise... say December will end up colder than normal... January will be normal slightly above average... February will average way above norms temp wise... :)
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Just gonna throw this out there, but Jan will be atleast -2 below average for BHM, ATL, GSP , CLT and RAH
 
Tarheel1 link said:
[quote author=tennessee storm link=topic=2.msg2728#msg2728 date=1482115144]
I wouldn't be so surprised if this month December is the coldest month this winter season... course that wont mean we cant have some nice winter events... I am just saying going by average wise... say December will end up colder than normal... January will be normal slightly above average... February will average way above norms temp wise... :)
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Just gonna throw this out there, but Jan will be atleast -2 below average for BHM, ATL, GSP , CLT and RAH
[/quote]
Is there going to be a nice block for us in Greenland?
 
GainesvilleWX link said:
[quote author=Tarheel1 link=topic=2.msg2729#msg2729 date=1482115411]
[quote author=tennessee storm link=topic=2.msg2728#msg2728 date=1482115144]
I wouldn't be so surprised if this month December is the coldest month this winter season... course that wont mean we cant have some nice winter events... I am just saying going by average wise... say December will end up colder than normal... January will be normal slightly above average... February will average way above norms temp wise... :)
Click to expand...
Just gonna throw this out there, but Jan will be atleast -2 below average for BHM, ATL, GSP , CLT and RAH
[/quote]
Is there going to be a nice block for us in Greenland?
[/quote]
Nope, just 84/85 redux!
 
JHS link said:
The 2014 icestorm pounded much of GA and over into the SC midlands, but did not really reach the CAD areas. It was mostly sleet and snow in those areas. Some of NE GA and western SC get hit pretty good in 2015, but the classic CAD areas in the Carolinas have not had what I'd call a classic icestorm since 2005. It does look like the CAD wedges are going to be strong this year, so I think the Carolinas do get nailed this winter, most likely in Feb.
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Unless I'm not getting the sarcasm here (it's hard to detect online), but what makes you think February will be the favored month to get an icestorm? Just wondering. I'm all for it, whenever it happens, just as long as it does happen.
 
SoutheastRidge link said:
I'm not too crazy about being in a cold pattern if it's also not a winter weather pattern. It would be nice to have some days in the 60s if we're not going to get snow.
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I love the cold with or without snow. After a whole summer of heat humidity and bugs I always love when winter arrives.
 
SoutheastRidge link said:
I'm not too crazy about being in a cold pattern if it's also not a winter weather pattern. It would be nice to have some days in the 60s if we're not going to get snow.
Click to expand...

Same here. The only good thing that comes out of cold weather is snow. Otherwise, it's just a waste.
 
CummingWx link said:
[quote author=JHS link=topic=2.msg2697#msg2697 date=1482103134]
The 2014 icestorm pounded much of GA and over into the SC midlands, but did not really reach the CAD areas. It was mostly sleet and snow in those areas. Some of NE GA and western SC get hit pretty good in 2015, but the classic CAD areas in the Carolinas have not had what I'd call a classic icestorm since 2005. It does look like the CAD wedges are going to be strong this year, so I think the Carolinas do get nailed this winter, most likely in Feb.
Click to expand...

Unless I'm not getting the sarcasm here (it's hard to detect online), but what makes you think February will be the favored month to get an icestorm? Just wondering. I'm all for it, whenever it happens, just as long as it does happen.
[/quote]
I think he's meaning it's going to take that long for the pattern to get right, for a southern wintry precip pattern. And in his location, I believe the last two winters, his area was mostly ice on their big events and they were in February
 
It was 80 here today. Amazing considering the high was 43 degrees on Friday. 37 degree swing between two days and another big swing tomorrow.
 
Tarheel1 link said:
[quote author=tennessee storm link=topic=2.msg2728#msg2728 date=1482115144]
I wouldn't be so surprised if this month December is the coldest month this winter season... course that wont mean we cant have some nice winter events... I am just saying going by average wise... say December will end up colder than normal... January will be normal slightly above average... February will average way above norms temp wise... :)
Click to expand...
Just gonna throw this out there, but Jan will be atleast -2 below average for BHM, ATL, GSP , CLT and RAH
[/quote]
you better pray for a historic JB bathtub outbreak for that to verify cause the first two weeks will be AN

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Mobile reporting snow lol

2cr58ab.jpg
 
Re: December Discussion

lol at the 00z gfs at this rate by tomorrow night it will be raining on the us /canada boarder

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omg the GFS has gone from a blizzard in Texas to rain in Minnesota in 4 runs. Someone please get rid of this model
 
GaWx link said:
The 0Z GFS says what SE ridge?
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Yeah, sadly it say what winter? I know avg to +10 highs and lows are not torchy, but far from wintry also!
 
Tarheel1 link said:
[quote author=GaWx link=topic=2.msg2746#msg2746 date=1482122074]
The 0Z GFS says what SE ridge?
Click to expand...
Yeah, sadly it say what winter? I know avg to +10 highs and lows are not torchy, but far from wintry also!
[/quote]

My point is that the 0Z does not have the west coast trough like the 18Z, 12Z, 6Z, etc. GFS had for next week. If that's a true trend, that's big news. The 18Z GEFS hinted at this very thing.
 
GFS 0z has mid/upper 60s in the Carolinas on the 26th!! That is a torch! But great for playing outside with all your new toys! :)
 
Tarheel1 link said:
GFS 0z has mid/upper 60s in the Carolinas on the 26th!! That is a torch! But great for playing outside with all your new toys! :)
Click to expand...

If this run were to verify, that would be the last day anywhere near that warm for quite a while. Big change afterward! again per the 0Z GFS fwiw. But as I said, the 18Z GEFS hinted at this.
 
Eh, 60's in my area for Christmas is not exactly a torch.  Seen it a great deal in my life.
 
It at least isn't the 80 degrees that this area saw last Christmas (I wasn't here but where I was actually at wasn't much better, it was in the mid 70s with flooding rain in Northwest Georgia when I was visiting relatives up there).

Wait. It hit 80 here today but it at least was a one day thing. Last year I swear there was at least five 80+ degree readings in December. It was that miserable for this time of year. Now it looks like last year's December may have been pushed to early January instead. But we'll see. Maybe there is a miracle turnaround. But there has been a precedent set before of Decembers being a month with some really cold snaps and that being it for the whole winter.

Which isn't good for the South as most of the South historically won't score in December.

(I just checked and there was only 3, but there was a ton of days in the upper 70s)
 
GaWx link said:
The 0Z GFS says what SE ridge?
Click to expand...

To which the 0Z King replied, 'That ridge!".  ;)

Despite the improved look of the 18Z GEFS/0Z GFS/GEFS, the 0Z Euro looked maybe even worse than the 12Z Euro!
 
Until something changes on the west coast, this pattern is gonna suck. No ridging/-PNA leads to northern stream dominating.

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GaWx link said:
[quote author=GaWx link=topic=2.msg2746#msg2746 date=1482122074]
The 0Z GFS says what SE ridge?
Click to expand...

To which the 0Z King replied, 'That ridge!".  ;)

Despite the improved look of the 18Z GEFS/0Z GFS/GEFS, the 0Z Euro looked maybe even worse than the 12Z Euro!
[/quote]

Then that may mean the weeklies aren't going to be so hot...not that I put much stock in them anyway.


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