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Pattern December Discussion

The AO is forecasted to top off at about 5.0 before going towards neutral but still positive at New Years. PNA is forecasted to go negative after a brief period of being positive. Until we can get these more favorable it'll be hard to get much of anything big to track. Right now unless you can get another CAD setup, favorable area would be back out west and upper portions of the south and TN area.  The MJO looks to be going into the favorable (phase 8 and 1) I believe Larry has been talking about.
a599841de837b8ae821e9b67638dbe7f.gif

ab32a56589901553e10488f8f994e3a8.gif

GFS
47cf39c9b4889cb1a03ddfea4dd61aea.gif

ECMWF
11453ef708b6ee0be37a9b1c8d878ca0.gif


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Tarheel1 link said:
[quote author=NorthGaWinter link=topic=2.msg2652#msg2652 date=1482081207]
This one will be fun to watch. It's really not that far from bringing the goods
Click to expand...
It's about as far from bringing anything good, as can be! With the AO rising till atleast early January, we would have better luck hitting the lottery , than getting snow or ice in the South
[/quote]
agreed. however , can still score with a bad AO . comes down to timing

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Well the advertised torch never gets much inside day 10 either, I don't think the pattern is as bad as some say. It's not good, but I bet we don't torch late December into January like many say. In fact I think we get some winter weather as we head toward the middle of January through the end of the month. I think near normal through the rest of the month is more realistic than torch. Way to early to call winter off based on long range forecast that is sure to change. At some point some of the south will catch everything just right. Good grief maybe not southern ga or florida but for a great number of people in the mid-south. :snowflake:
 
Re: December Discussion

12z euro has a nice blizzard for north and south Dakota

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Re: December Discussion

Storm5 link said:
12z euro has a nice blizzard for north and south Dakota

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
It's a step down process! We will get our step in April! :(
 
StoneMtnWx link said:
The AO is forecasted to top off at about 5.0 before going towards neutral but still positive at New Years. PNA is forecasted to go negative after a brief period of being positive. Until we can get these more favorable it'll be hard to get much of anything big to track. Right now unless you can get another CAD setup, favorable area would be back out west and upper portions of the south and TN area.  The MJO looks to be going into the favorable (phase 8 and 1) I believe Larry has been talking about.
GFS
47cf39c9b4889cb1a03ddfea4dd61aea.gif

ECMWF
11453ef708b6ee0be37a9b1c8d878ca0.gif
Click to expand...

Yes, indeed. It is too bad that the MJO is not the end all be all factor because I couldn't draw a more favorable forecasted MJO for cold than what today's GEFS/EPS consensus is showing (EPS does best with MJO overall). So, IF this were to verify per the EPS, the MJO would be very close to amplitude 1.00 (circle) going from phase 7 into 8 and aiming for low amplitude of phase 1. I can't overstate how near perfect this would be as regards the highest chances for colder than normal from a strictly MJO standpoint. Again, if only this were the only factor!
 
Re: December Discussion

Storm5 link said:
12z euro has a nice blizzard for north and south Dakota

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Click to expand...
I know I have said this before - it is literally comical when I toggle between current and previous runs of both the GFS and Euro.  Again, the screaming message is that these models have no clue during active periods until it has been sampled and at least in the CONUS.
 
Re: December Discussion

Supershow link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg2662#msg2662 date=1482086620]
12z euro has a nice blizzard for north and south Dakota

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
I know I have said this before - it is literally comical when I toggle between current and previous runs of both the GFS and Euro.  Again, the screaming message is that these models have no clue during active periods until it has been sampled and at least in the CONUS.
[/quote]
If they show above normal temps, they usually nail those! They have been really horrible with precip also! I was supposed to get 1-3" of rain by today and have picked up .10, at best and maybe that much more before rain moves out
 
good lord the 12z eps is horrible . getting really close to a nice 2-3 week crap pattern where model watching won't matter

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Storm5 link said:
good lord the 12z eps is horrible . getting really close to a nice 2-3 week crap pattern where model watching won't matter

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Getting close?!  Haha!
 
Rain Cold link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg2668#msg2668 date=1482093459]
good lord the 12z eps is horrible . getting really close to a nice 2-3 week crap pattern where model watching won't matter

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Getting close?!  Haha!
[/quote]
lol true, it's been crap but some areas have seen a little Zr/IP which is a win

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Storm5 link said:
[quote author=Rain Cold link=topic=2.msg2669#msg2669 date=1482095881]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg2668#msg2668 date=1482093459]
good lord the 12z eps is horrible . getting really close to a nice 2-3 week crap pattern where model watching won't matter

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Getting close?!  Haha!
[/quote]
lol true, it's been crap but some areas have seen a little Zr/IP which is a win

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
[/quote]

Yeah, we got a little glaze...just enough to ruin the shutout for the winter.
 
Storm5 link said:
good lord the 12z eps is horrible . getting really close to a nice 2-3 week crap pattern where model watching won't matter

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Not exactly the best time to be getting into a crap pattern is it ? January less than 2 weeks away.
 
Still have time to get this crappy pattern out of here in time for the peak part of the season. Not too worried yet.
 
Re: December Discussion

SoutheastRidge link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg2668#msg2668 date=1482093459]
good lord the 12z eps is horrible . getting really close to a nice 2-3 week crap pattern where model watching won't matter

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Not exactly the best time to be getting into a crap pattern is it ? January less than 2 weeks away.
[/quote]
no, it's not. Obviously we cycle through different patterns during the winter here in the SE but the one upcoming is about as bad as you can get . The question is where do we go after this? With zero blocking to be found in the LR and a strengthening PV , it's a bleak outlook. I guess the good news is, once the pattern changes in January it can't be any worse . But when it does change there is ZERO guarantee it will get any better .  People keep saying just wait till late January and February . Thats a seasonal saying that we hear every year and i dont think its going to apply to this winter coming out of a weak Nina.  We are starting to see that in the seasonal models as they trend warmer and warmer for January and February. I've been on the front loaded winter and warmer back end from the start . Gonna be sad if the front loaded plays out and December ends up being the "coldest " month to average this winter and we go AN in J/F. Obiously we will still have a chance or two along the way but I'll be 100 percent shocked if we get any type of sustained ( meaning a few weeks) wintry pattern in January or February . Color me worried at this point

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I'm having flashbacks to January and February 2012. Actually, I enjoyed that winter. It was warm and we didn't really ever have any chances for wintry precip so we never got our hopes up. What really sucks is when you have a winter with a great pattern and can't score.
 
Re: December Discussion

Storm5 link said:
[quote author=SoutheastRidge link=topic=2.msg2673#msg2673 date=1482097038]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg2668#msg2668 date=1482093459]
good lord the 12z eps is horrible . getting really close to a nice 2-3 week crap pattern where model watching won't matter

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Not exactly the best time to be getting into a crap pattern is it ? January less than 2 weeks away.
[/quote]
no, it's not. Obviously we cycle through different patterns during the winter here in the SE but the one upcoming is about as bad as you can get . The question is where do we go after this? With zero blocking to be found in the LR and a strengthening PV , it's a bleak outlook. I guess the good news is, once the pattern changes in January it can't be any worse . But when it does change there is ZERO guarantee it will get any better .  People keep saying just wait till late January and February . Thats a seasonal saying that we hear every year and i dont think its going to apply to this winter coming out of a weak Nina.  We are starting to see that in the seasonal models as they trend warmer and warmer for January and February. I've been on the front loaded winter and warmer back end from the start . Gonna be sad if the front loaded plays out and December ends up being the "coldest " month to average this winter. Obiously we will still have a chance or two along the way but I'll be 100 percent shocked if we get any type of sustained ( meaning a few weeks) wintry pattern in January or February .

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
[/quote]
I see you got your avatar....lol. Well, I am riding the MJO until it proves me wrong. I know it can make or break a winter outlook, and with it forecasted to be in a favorable quadrant, I will take my chances. I stick by my original way of thinking.... Lots of wedges in the Carolinas this up-coming winter.
 
Cad Wedge NC link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg2677#msg2677 date=1482097768]
[quote author=SoutheastRidge link=topic=2.msg2673#msg2673 date=1482097038]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg2668#msg2668 date=1482093459]
good lord the 12z eps is horrible . getting really close to a nice 2-3 week crap pattern where model watching won't matter

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Not exactly the best time to be getting into a crap pattern is it ? January less than 2 weeks away.
[/quote]
no, it's not. Obviously we cycle through different patterns during the winter here in the SE but the one upcoming is about as bad as you can get . The question is where do we go after this? With zero blocking to be found in the LR and a strengthening PV , it's a bleak outlook. I guess the good news is, once the pattern changes in January it can't be any worse . But when it does change there is ZERO guarantee it will get any better .  People keep saying just wait till late January and February . Thats a seasonal saying that we hear every year and i dont think its going to apply to this winter coming out of a weak Nina.  We are starting to see that in the seasonal models as they trend warmer and warmer for January and February. I've been on the front loaded winter and warmer back end from the start . Gonna be sad if the front loaded plays out and December ends up being the "coldest " month to average this winter. Obiously we will still have a chance or two along the way but I'll be 100 percent shocked if we get any type of sustained ( meaning a few weeks) wintry pattern in January or February .

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
[/quote]
I see you got your avatar....lol. Well, I am riding the MJO until it proves me wrong. I know it can make or break a winter outlook, and with it forecasted to be in a favorable quadrant, I will take my chances. I stick by my original way of thinking.... Lots of wedges in the Carolinas this up-coming winter.
[/quote]
haha yes might be my avatar for life .

You are in a much more favored area being a weak nina year. I agree with you , ride the wedges all season.

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
 
Storm5 link said:
[quote author=Cad Wedge NC link=topic=2.msg2679#msg2679 date=1482098217]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg2677#msg2677 date=1482097768]
[quote author=SoutheastRidge link=topic=2.msg2673#msg2673 date=1482097038]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg2668#msg2668 date=1482093459]
good lord the 12z eps is horrible . getting really close to a nice 2-3 week crap pattern where model watching won't matter

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Not exactly the best time to be getting into a crap pattern is it ? January less than 2 weeks away.
[/quote]
no, it's not. Obviously we cycle through different patterns during the winter here in the SE but the one upcoming is about as bad as you can get . The question is where do we go after this? With zero blocking to be found in the LR and a strengthening PV , it's a bleak outlook. I guess the good news is, once the pattern changes in January it can't be any worse . But when it does change there is ZERO guarantee it will get any better .  People keep saying just wait till late January and February . Thats a seasonal saying that we hear every year and i dont think its going to apply to this winter coming out of a weak Nina.  We are starting to see that in the seasonal models as they trend warmer and warmer for January and February. I've been on the front loaded winter and warmer back end from the start . Gonna be sad if the front loaded plays out and December ends up being the "coldest " month to average this winter. Obiously we will still have a chance or two along the way but I'll be 100 percent shocked if we get any type of sustained ( meaning a few weeks) wintry pattern in January or February .

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
[/quote]
I see you got your avatar....lol. Well, I am riding the MJO until it proves me wrong. I know it can make or break a winter outlook, and with it forecasted to be in a favorable quadrant, I will take my chances. I stick by my original way of thinking.... Lots of wedges in the Carolinas this up-coming winter.
[/quote]
haha yes might be my avatar for life .

You are in a much more favored area being a weak nina year. I agree with you , ride the wedges all season.

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
[/quote] sometimes wedges can bring ice all the way to AL. Remember January 2005 ?
 
Storm5 link said:
[quote author=accu35 link=topic=2.msg2680#msg2680 date=1482099199]
And obviously 18z GFS different solution
Click to expand...
yep worse than 12z

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
[/quote]
How is that even possible! Lol? Warmer
 
Re: December Discussion

Cad Wedge NC link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg2677#msg2677 date=1482097768]
[quote author=SoutheastRidge link=topic=2.msg2673#msg2673 date=1482097038]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg2668#msg2668 date=1482093459]
good lord the 12z eps is horrible . getting really close to a nice 2-3 week crap pattern where model watching won't matter

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Not exactly the best time to be getting into a crap pattern is it ? January less than 2 weeks away.
[/quote]
no, it's not. Obviously we cycle through different patterns during the winter here in the SE but the one upcoming is about as bad as you can get . The question is where do we go after this? With zero blocking to be found in the LR and a strengthening PV , it's a bleak outlook. I guess the good news is, once the pattern changes in January it can't be any worse . But when it does change there is ZERO guarantee it will get any better .  People keep saying just wait till late January and February . Thats a seasonal saying that we hear every year and i dont think its going to apply to this winter coming out of a weak Nina.  We are starting to see that in the seasonal models as they trend warmer and warmer for January and February. I've been on the front loaded winter and warmer back end from the start . Gonna be sad if the front loaded plays out and December ends up being the "coldest " month to average this winter. Obiously we will still have a chance or two along the way but I'll be 100 percent shocked if we get any type of sustained ( meaning a few weeks) wintry pattern in January or February .

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
[/quote]
I see you got your avatar....lol. Well, I am riding the MJO until it proves me wrong. I know it can make or break a winter outlook, and with it forecasted to be in a favorable quadrant, I will take my chances. I stick by my original way of thinking.... Lots of wedges in the Carolinas this up-coming winter.
[/quote]

The Carolinas have a MUCH better chance of winter weather this year than the rest of the southeast. The other area that could do well is western Tenn and maybe into Miss. I think the CAD area in NC and SC will get nailed with an icestorm sometime in Feb.
 
Re: December Discussion

JHS link said:
[quote author=Cad Wedge NC link=topic=2.msg2679#msg2679 date=1482098217]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg2677#msg2677 date=1482097768]
[quote author=SoutheastRidge link=topic=2.msg2673#msg2673 date=1482097038]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg2668#msg2668 date=1482093459]
good lord the 12z eps is horrible . getting really close to a nice 2-3 week crap pattern where model watching won't matter

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Not exactly the best time to be getting into a crap pattern is it ? January less than 2 weeks away.
[/quote]
no, it's not. Obviously we cycle through different patterns during the winter here in the SE but the one upcoming is about as bad as you can get . The question is where do we go after this? With zero blocking to be found in the LR and a strengthening PV , it's a bleak outlook. I guess the good news is, once the pattern changes in January it can't be any worse . But when it does change there is ZERO guarantee it will get any better .  People keep saying just wait till late January and February . Thats a seasonal saying that we hear every year and i dont think its going to apply to this winter coming out of a weak Nina.  We are starting to see that in the seasonal models as they trend warmer and warmer for January and February. I've been on the front loaded winter and warmer back end from the start . Gonna be sad if the front loaded plays out and December ends up being the "coldest " month to average this winter. Obiously we will still have a chance or two along the way but I'll be 100 percent shocked if we get any type of sustained ( meaning a few weeks) wintry pattern in January or February .

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
[/quote]
I see you got your avatar....lol. Well, I am riding the MJO until it proves me wrong. I know it can make or break a winter outlook, and with it forecasted to be in a favorable quadrant, I will take my chances. I stick by my original way of thinking.... Lots of wedges in the Carolinas this up-coming winter.
[/quote]

The Carolinas have a MUCH better chance of winter weather this year than the rest of the southeast. The other area that could do well is western Tenn and maybe into Miss. I think the CAD area in NC and SC will get nailed with an icestorm sometime in Feb.
[/quote] What about NE GA ? I also wonder if TX could maybe do better than other areas of the southeast as well.
 
Re: December Discussion

SoutheastRidge link said:
[quote author=JHS link=topic=2.msg2688#msg2688 date=1482101271]
[quote author=Cad Wedge NC link=topic=2.msg2679#msg2679 date=1482098217]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg2677#msg2677 date=1482097768]
[quote author=SoutheastRidge link=topic=2.msg2673#msg2673 date=1482097038]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg2668#msg2668 date=1482093459]
good lord the 12z eps is horrible . getting really close to a nice 2-3 week crap pattern where model watching won't matter

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Not exactly the best time to be getting into a crap pattern is it ? January less than 2 weeks away.
[/quote]
no, it's not. Obviously we cycle through different patterns during the winter here in the SE but the one upcoming is about as bad as you can get . The question is where do we go after this? With zero blocking to be found in the LR and a strengthening PV , it's a bleak outlook. I guess the good news is, once the pattern changes in January it can't be any worse . But when it does change there is ZERO guarantee it will get any better .  People keep saying just wait till late January and February . Thats a seasonal saying that we hear every year and i dont think its going to apply to this winter coming out of a weak Nina.  We are starting to see that in the seasonal models as they trend warmer and warmer for January and February. I've been on the front loaded winter and warmer back end from the start . Gonna be sad if the front loaded plays out and December ends up being the "coldest " month to average this winter. Obiously we will still have a chance or two along the way but I'll be 100 percent shocked if we get any type of sustained ( meaning a few weeks) wintry pattern in January or February .

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
[/quote]
I see you got your avatar....lol. Well, I am riding the MJO until it proves me wrong. I know it can make or break a winter outlook, and with it forecasted to be in a favorable quadrant, I will take my chances. I stick by my original way of thinking.... Lots of wedges in the Carolinas this up-coming winter.
[/quote]

The Carolinas have a MUCH better chance of winter weather this year than the rest of the southeast. The other area that could do well is western Tenn and maybe into Miss. I think the CAD area in NC and SC will get nailed with an icestorm sometime in Feb.
[/quote] What about NE GA ? I also wonder if TX could maybe do better than other areas of the southeast as well.
[/quote]

A small part of NE GA could do ok if the CAD is strong enough when the time comes. Say from around the northeast Atlanta metro and up I-85. I was only thinking of east of the Mississippi river, but obviously TX should do very well. Better than anyone in the southeast probably, including the CAD area.
 
JHS link said:
[quote author=Cad Wedge NC link=topic=2.msg2679#msg2679 date=1482098217]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg2677#msg2677 date=1482097768]
[quote author=SoutheastRidge link=topic=2.msg2673#msg2673 date=1482097038]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg2668#msg2668 date=1482093459]
good lord the 12z eps is horrible . getting really close to a nice 2-3 week crap pattern where model watching won't matter

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Not exactly the best time to be getting into a crap pattern is it ? January less than 2 weeks away.
[/quote]
no, it's not. Obviously we cycle through different patterns during the winter here in the SE but the one upcoming is about as bad as you can get . The question is where do we go after this? With zero blocking to be found in the LR and a strengthening PV , it's a bleak outlook. I guess the good news is, once the pattern changes in January it can't be any worse . But when it does change there is ZERO guarantee it will get any better .  People keep saying just wait till late January and February . Thats a seasonal saying that we hear every year and i dont think its going to apply to this winter coming out of a weak Nina.  We are starting to see that in the seasonal models as they trend warmer and warmer for January and February. I've been on the front loaded winter and warmer back end from the start . Gonna be sad if the front loaded plays out and December ends up being the "coldest " month to average this winter. Obiously we will still have a chance or two along the way but I'll be 100 percent shocked if we get any type of sustained ( meaning a few weeks) wintry pattern in January or February .

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
[/quote]
I see you got your avatar....lol. Well, I am riding the MJO until it proves me wrong. I know it can make or break a winter outlook, and with it forecasted to be in a favorable quadrant, I will take my chances. I stick by my original way of thinking.... Lots of wedges in the Carolinas this up-coming winter.
[/quote]

The Carolinas have a MUCH better chance of winter weather this year than the rest of the southeast. The other area that could do well is western Tenn and maybe into Miss. I think the CAD area in NC and SC will get nailed with an icestorm sometime in Feb.
[/quote]
I don't know the odds aren't in our favor. We had a major ice storm two years ago. I doubt there is another one so soon. (At least for NEGA)


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
GainesvilleWX link said:
[quote author=JHS link=topic=2.msg2688#msg2688 date=1482101271]
[quote author=Cad Wedge NC link=topic=2.msg2679#msg2679 date=1482098217]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg2677#msg2677 date=1482097768]
[quote author=SoutheastRidge link=topic=2.msg2673#msg2673 date=1482097038]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg2668#msg2668 date=1482093459]
good lord the 12z eps is horrible . getting really close to a nice 2-3 week crap pattern where model watching won't matter

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Not exactly the best time to be getting into a crap pattern is it ? January less than 2 weeks away.
[/quote]
no, it's not. Obviously we cycle through different patterns during the winter here in the SE but the one upcoming is about as bad as you can get . The question is where do we go after this? With zero blocking to be found in the LR and a strengthening PV , it's a bleak outlook. I guess the good news is, once the pattern changes in January it can't be any worse . But when it does change there is ZERO guarantee it will get any better .  People keep saying just wait till late January and February . Thats a seasonal saying that we hear every year and i dont think its going to apply to this winter coming out of a weak Nina.  We are starting to see that in the seasonal models as they trend warmer and warmer for January and February. I've been on the front loaded winter and warmer back end from the start . Gonna be sad if the front loaded plays out and December ends up being the "coldest " month to average this winter. Obiously we will still have a chance or two along the way but I'll be 100 percent shocked if we get any type of sustained ( meaning a few weeks) wintry pattern in January or February .

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
[/quote]
I see you got your avatar....lol. Well, I am riding the MJO until it proves me wrong. I know it can make or break a winter outlook, and with it forecasted to be in a favorable quadrant, I will take my chances. I stick by my original way of thinking.... Lots of wedges in the Carolinas this up-coming winter.
[/quote]

The Carolinas have a MUCH better chance of winter weather this year than the rest of the southeast. The other area that could do well is western Tenn and maybe into Miss. I think the CAD area in NC and SC will get nailed with an icestorm sometime in Feb.
[/quote]
I don't know the odds aren't in our favor. We had a major ice storm two years ago. I doubt there is another one so soon. (At least for NEGA)


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
[/quote] Are you talking about the one almost 3 years ago in February 2014 ?
 
GainesvilleWX link said:
[quote author=JHS link=topic=2.msg2688#msg2688 date=1482101271]
[quote author=Cad Wedge NC link=topic=2.msg2679#msg2679 date=1482098217]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg2677#msg2677 date=1482097768]
[quote author=SoutheastRidge link=topic=2.msg2673#msg2673 date=1482097038]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg2668#msg2668 date=1482093459]
good lord the 12z eps is horrible . getting really close to a nice 2-3 week crap pattern where model watching won't matter

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Not exactly the best time to be getting into a crap pattern is it ? January less than 2 weeks away.
[/quote]
no, it's not. Obviously we cycle through different patterns during the winter here in the SE but the one upcoming is about as bad as you can get . The question is where do we go after this? With zero blocking to be found in the LR and a strengthening PV , it's a bleak outlook. I guess the good news is, once the pattern changes in January it can't be any worse . But when it does change there is ZERO guarantee it will get any better .  People keep saying just wait till late January and February . Thats a seasonal saying that we hear every year and i dont think its going to apply to this winter coming out of a weak Nina.  We are starting to see that in the seasonal models as they trend warmer and warmer for January and February. I've been on the front loaded winter and warmer back end from the start . Gonna be sad if the front loaded plays out and December ends up being the "coldest " month to average this winter. Obiously we will still have a chance or two along the way but I'll be 100 percent shocked if we get any type of sustained ( meaning a few weeks) wintry pattern in January or February .

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
[/quote]
I see you got your avatar....lol. Well, I am riding the MJO until it proves me wrong. I know it can make or break a winter outlook, and with it forecasted to be in a favorable quadrant, I will take my chances. I stick by my original way of thinking.... Lots of wedges in the Carolinas this up-coming winter.
[/quote]

The Carolinas have a MUCH better chance of winter weather this year than the rest of the southeast. The other area that could do well is western Tenn and maybe into Miss. I think the CAD area in NC and SC will get nailed with an icestorm sometime in Feb.
[/quote]
I don't know the odds aren't in our favor. We had a major ice storm two years ago. I doubt there is another one so soon. (At least for NEGA)


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Weather doesn't really go by odds! It's kind of like having two 1000 year floods in 1 year! If you love odds, check out analogs, they are a real hoot! :)
 
Yeah I meant the February 2015 ice storm that affected NE GA and the upstate. (Not the 2014 snowstorm). The weather can do whatever it wants, but just from my experience I've only seen three major ice storms in this area in 16 years. Of course there could be three this year but it doesn't seem likely to me.

With that being said I would be interested in gathering analogs of years we have had ice storms. I use to know of the site for analogs, but no longer know of it. (At least for temperatures and precipitation) does anyone have that link?


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The 2014 icestorm pounded much of GA and over into the SC midlands, but did not really reach the CAD areas. It was mostly sleet and snow in those areas. Some of NE GA and western SC get hit pretty good in 2015, but the classic CAD areas in the Carolinas have not had what I'd call a classic icestorm since 2005. It does look like the CAD wedges are going to be strong this year, so I think the Carolinas do get nailed this winter, most likely in Feb.
 
GainesvilleWX link said:
Yeah I meant the February 2015 ice storm that affected NE GA and the upstate. (Not the 2014 snowstorm). The weather can do whatever it wants, but just from my experience I've only seen three major ice storms in this area in 16 years. Of course there could be three this year but it doesn't seem likely to me.

With that being said I would be interested in gathering analogs of years we have had ice storms. I use to know of the site for analogs, but no longer know of it. (At least for temperatures and precipitation) does anyone have that link?


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The two worst ice storms for the CAD areas, in relatively recent memory, we're both in December ironically, Dec 2002 and December 2005
 
Actually, the 18Z GEFS for the 6-15 day period is not at all a torch. It isn't far from normal, which would be a big victory in itself imo should it happen to verify. If anything, there is more of a weak trough than a SE ridge dominating the eastern US on that run for much of that period.
 
At this point I would take the flurries here on the 23rd as a win...still nothing here in the moumtains

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JB's back in the bathtub! Says two week torch is ok, 84/85 is his major analog now going forward! SMFH!
 
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