whatalife
Moderator
Storm5 link said:lol 12z gfs day 10
12z cmc day 10
Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
I'm going w/CMC! I refuse to go with a US model.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Pattern December Discussion
- Thread starter Storm5
- Start date
I'm going w/CMC! I refuse to go with a US model.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
The 1041 high in New England on the CMC looks good! We have to throw out that GFS run, it's just ludicrous!
Storm5
Member
gefs has two systems in the 16th-21st period. but seeing how touchy the models and ensembles are , it's not saying much
Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
Storm5
Member
lol of course JB is using the best wennie line there is about the models not handling the cold correctly lol
Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
I'll probably start a sunspot minimum thread soon. Currently, the sun has just gone back to spotless and we may be about to have the 1st long string of spotless in awhile based on the other side also being very quiet. Solar flux is very low. If the daily falls to below 70, it would be the 1st time since June of 2010, which was 1.5 years after the last cyclical minimum.
We're now approaching what should be very quiet years assuming those projections for the quietest solar minimum in ~200 years were to materialize. The earliest the minimum should be would be near 1/1/20. However, deeply quiet cycles, as occurred during Dalton min of early 1800's, tend to be longer. So, if we get something similar, we could be looking at the next cycle min not being til 2021 or even as late as early 2022.
For grand solar min weenies, this is your time coming up! Watch as the quietness of 2017 should give us great hints as to how deep it will get. As quiet as 2017 is expected to be, the subsequent 4+ years should be even that much quieter.
Link to latest sun pic: http://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_1024_HMIIF.jpg
We're now approaching what should be very quiet years assuming those projections for the quietest solar minimum in ~200 years were to materialize. The earliest the minimum should be would be near 1/1/20. However, deeply quiet cycles, as occurred during Dalton min of early 1800's, tend to be longer. So, if we get something similar, we could be looking at the next cycle min not being til 2021 or even as late as early 2022.
For grand solar min weenies, this is your time coming up! Watch as the quietness of 2017 should give us great hints as to how deep it will get. As quiet as 2017 is expected to be, the subsequent 4+ years should be even that much quieter.
Link to latest sun pic: http://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_1024_HMIIF.jpg
whatalife
Moderator
Oh good grief!Storm5 link said:lol of course JB is using the best wennie line there is about the models not handling the cold correctly lol
Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Oh good grief!whatalife link said:[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg1163#msg1163 date=1481392778]
lol of course JB is using the best wennie line there is about the models not handling the cold correctly lol
Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
[/quote]
It's lonely in the bathtub!!
Storm5
Member
the 12z Canadian ensembles center the cold further east vs the gefs
12z Canadian ensembles
12z gefs
Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
12z Canadian ensembles
12z gefs
Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
The trend toward the SER taking back over as we head toward late month is getting more evident on ensemble model consensus (ignoring the unreliable CMC op). The Euro week #3 of this past run suggested a mild week. This would be like the dominant pattern of a typical La Niña (mild SE while cold NW to north central) though I think we're looking at neutral negative ENSO as 3.4 seems to have bottomed.
As I have said, Dec temps are somewhat of an indicator of how Jan is likely to be. The best chances at a cold (mild) SE Jan are when Dec is also cold (mild) in the SE. So, for those rooting for the best chance at a cold Jan, your best bet would be if Dec ends up cold though the correlation is only partial.
The MJO forecast from the EPS remains in the relatively favorable low amp though today's fcast is hinting it to be more to the right than yesterday. The coldest MJO overall is low amp on the left.
As I have said, Dec temps are somewhat of an indicator of how Jan is likely to be. The best chances at a cold (mild) SE Jan are when Dec is also cold (mild) in the SE. So, for those rooting for the best chance at a cold Jan, your best bet would be if Dec ends up cold though the correlation is only partial.
The MJO forecast from the EPS remains in the relatively favorable low amp though today's fcast is hinting it to be more to the right than yesterday. The coldest MJO overall is low amp on the left.
Storm5
Member
12z euro has a nice cad event next weekend
Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
whatalife
Moderator
Storm5 link said:
Looks similar to 12z CMC. Nice cad for parts of NC/SC.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Storm5
Member
whatalife link said:
Looks similar to 12z CMC. Nice cad for parts of NC/SC.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
[/quote]
yes it's a front end type event that goes to rain but your right it's similar to the cmc
Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
Storm5
Member
Re: December Discussion
gfs looks out to lunch. 12z euro much more in line with the 12z Canadian ensembles and 2z cmc
12z euro week from monday
12z cmc
12z gfs
Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
gfs looks out to lunch. 12z euro much more in line with the 12z Canadian ensembles and 2z cmc
12z euro week from monday
12z cmc
12z gfs
Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
N
NorthGaWinter
Guest
Let's see if that energy south of cali can make its way east
Storm5
Member
I think it's gonna get stuck this run but I bet the eps will look niceNorthGaWinter link said:
Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
whatalife
Moderator
NorthGaWinter link said:
Not going to make it out this run...
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Storm5
Member
whatalife link said:
Not going to make it out this run...
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
[/quote]
nope but it's a much better run vs the disaster gfs
Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
whatalife
Moderator
Storm5 link said:
Not going to make it out this run...
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
[/quote]
nope but it's a much better run vs the disaster gfs
Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
[/quote]
Wish we could have played that out another 4 or 5 days...LOL!
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Storm5
Member
whatalife link said:
Not going to make it out this run...
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
[/quote]
nope but it's a much better run vs the disaster gfs
Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
[/quote]
Wish we could have played that out another 4 or 5 days...LOL!
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
[/quote]
that's what the eps is for ......fantasy
Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
whatalife
Moderator
Storm5 link said:
Not going to make it out this run...
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
[/quote]
nope but it's a much better run vs the disaster gfs
Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
[/quote]
Wish we could have played that out another 4 or 5 days...LOL!
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
[/quote]
that's what the eps is for ......fantasy
Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
[/quote]
Yep.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk