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Pattern December Discussion

to hell with the 00z gfs. let's ride the 18z para
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Re: December Discussion

we need the midweek cold blast to have a bigger push, this isn't gonna get it. that sets the table with cold air in place and helps to beat back the ridge just long enough  . if it's weak like tonight's 00z gfs it's game over
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Pathetic we are now worrying about the ridge.  Is this 2015 all over again as we approach?  Awaiting a change?  :(
 
Re: December Discussion

00z gefs =fail. Everything frozen shifted a good bit north

Cutter city

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I'd like to point out the Euro had an upgrade (downgrade in reality?) recently.  Or is the Euro on to something?  GFS is being built to pump out as much as it possibly can before it's replaced in 2019.  Seeing the Canadian and GFS fall is unnerving for Winter weather fans. :(

Article about the GFS replacement : http://www.noaa.gov/media-release/noaa-to-develop-new-global-weather-model
 
Starburst link said:
I'd like to point out the Euro had an upgrade (downgrade in reality?) recently.  Or is the Euro on to something?  GFS is being built to pump out as much as it possibly can before it's replaced in 2019.  Seeing the Canadian and GFS fall is unnerving for Winter weather fans. :(

Article about the GFS replacement : http://www.noaa.gov/media-release/noaa-to-develop-new-global-weather-model
Click to expand...
thanks for posting the article . I'll be shocked if the euro DOES NOT trend towards a cutting system at 00z

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Storm5 link said:
[quote author=Starburst link=topic=2.msg1112#msg1112 date=1481347663]
I'd like to point out the Euro had an upgrade (downgrade in reality?) recently.  Or is the Euro on to something?  GFS is being built to pump out as much as it possibly can before it's replaced in 2019.  Seeing the Canadian and GFS fall is unnerving for Winter weather fans. :(

Article about the GFS replacement : http://www.noaa.gov/media-release/noaa-to-develop-new-global-weather-model
Click to expand...
thanks for posting the article . I'll be shocked if the euro DOES NOT trend towards a cutting system at 00z

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[/quote]

What do we do if the Euro holds on to a coldy and stormy SE?  My guess is most will latch on and say the other models are lost.

I'd like to note to those deniers that models are just guidance.  Common sense will always prevail.  Something I have learned over the last couple of years.  My common sense tells me something Wintry is on the horizon, very soon.
 
Yep I actually feel pretty good still about the period.  Models are going to show many different solutions over the next couple days.
 
SnowFlowXXL link said:
Yep I actually feel pretty good still about the period.  Models are going to show many different solutions over the next couple days.
Click to expand...

I see you are in the ATL.  I feel like Northern parts of the SE have the highest chance as we stand now.  NE GA, NC. Far northern parts of MS/AL.  Good chunk of TN.

All options are still on the table, regardless of what the models show this far out though!
 
For those wondering.  Euro is pretty crap outside parts of East TN, West NC and north. for the 17th system.  And even that is a stretch.

After that is cold chasing moisture type crap.

Here we go again.  For my buddies in the deep South.. it's another crap deal.
 
Storm5 link said:
horrible overnight runs. this one is slipping away fast

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yeah but did you see the 6z
 
accu35 link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg1120#msg1120 date=1481365570]
horrible overnight runs. this one is slipping away fast

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yeah but did you see the 6z
[/quote]
unfortunately,  yes.

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December Discussion

Why all the despair in December? When do we reliably get wintry threats this month? I don't buy the whole if we don't cash in now we are screwed because January and February will be warm line of thinking. We don't reliably know any of that for a fact. I know that despite what we've said about these awful models, we still seem to live and die by them. That being said, I think someone cashes in before Christmas.


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accu35 link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg1120#msg1120 date=1481365570]
horrible overnight runs. this one is slipping away fast

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Click to expand...
yeah but did you see the 6z
[/quote]

6z has rain All the way up in Wisconsin  on Christmas Eve ?
Long way to go and plenty of time to get there however
 
Storm5 link said:
[quote author=ATLWxFan link=topic=2.msg1126#msg1126 date=1481377141]
Why all the despair in December? When do we reliably get wintry threats this month? I don't buy the whole if we don't cash in now we are screwed because January and February will be warm line of thinking. We don't reliably know any of that for a fact. I know that despite what we've said about these awful models, we still seem to live and die by them. That being said, I think someone cashes in before Christmas.


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Click to expand...
who said January was gonna be warm

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[/quote]haven't really seen any forecast saying January will be warm... course who knows... guess everyone is freaking out because most calling for a front loaded winter... but who really knows how it plays out from here... January usually is our best chance for winter weather
 
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