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NorthGaWinter
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Pattern December Discussion
- Thread starter Storm5
- Start date
JHS
Member
Lol! I thought we were gonna have to wait till January for rain???Tarheel1 link said:
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We got at least some rain in Dec 1988 and Jan 1989, but any winter weather held off until Feb when much of NC and the CAD area in SC got a major icestorm. Then a week later a 1-3 inch snowfall in western parts of SC and NC, but MUCH more along I-95 in NC and up into southeast VA. Feb of 1989 was wild, with 80 early in the month, followed by an extremely cold cold airmass that led to a temp gradient of 40-50 degrees between Memphis TN and upstate SC. Close to 80 again around the 15th, followed 2 days later by a major icestorm with between .25 and .50 of ice in upstate SC with temps at or below 32 at GSP for close to 36 hours. If we get a winter and spring like that year, this board will be very busy from Feb into May, first with cold and wintry weather in Feb, then severe storms and tornados in April and May.
Today's EPS MJO fcast is actually even a little more favorable for SE cold than yesterday with it trending slightly more toward the left half of the circle toward days 8-10:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_full.gif
Let's see if that happens. Whereas the MJO is far from the end all be all factor due to too many other influences, the left side of the circle either within or just outside for long periods has on average been associated with a good bit colder SE US temp than, say, an MJO well on the outside of the right side. Even inside the right side has on avg been colder than outside the right side. Inside or just outside on left side has on avg been colder than well outside on the left. Outside the left side has averaged colder than outside the right. Sometimes, however, it gets mild even in normally colder MJO locations & vice versa. So it is just as for any index just a tool to give an idea about tendencies/probabilities as opposed to a crystal ball.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_full.gif
Let's see if that happens. Whereas the MJO is far from the end all be all factor due to too many other influences, the left side of the circle either within or just outside for long periods has on average been associated with a good bit colder SE US temp than, say, an MJO well on the outside of the right side. Even inside the right side has on avg been colder than outside the right side. Inside or just outside on left side has on avg been colder than well outside on the left. Outside the left side has averaged colder than outside the right. Sometimes, however, it gets mild even in normally colder MJO locations & vice versa. So it is just as for any index just a tool to give an idea about tendencies/probabilities as opposed to a crystal ball.
NCSNOW
Member
Larry thanks for the update and explanation. Keep us posted, working out better than Cohens theories.
Dang sun trying to peak out. Wanted to stay in 30s today, cause tommorow is torch till front. Went with -2 for December and may end up to warm for greensboro. Be something if mby ends up below normal D,J,F . Exact opposite 9f last year's epic bust on warm side against seasonal outlooks. This year seasonal outlooks called for burnt toast overall.
Dang sun trying to peak out. Wanted to stay in 30s today, cause tommorow is torch till front. Went with -2 for December and may end up to warm for greensboro. Be something if mby ends up below normal D,J,F . Exact opposite 9f last year's epic bust on warm side against seasonal outlooks. This year seasonal outlooks called for burnt toast overall.
Storm5
Member
Re: December Discussion
12z Euro says bundle up in the 8-10 day range stating at Christmas
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12z Euro says bundle up in the 8-10 day range stating at Christmas
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whatalife
Moderator
Storm5 link said:
Yep nice and cold...
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whatalife link said:
Yep nice and cold...
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[/quote] and dry i'm sure
whatalife
Moderator
SoutheastRidge link said:
Yep nice and cold...
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[/quote] and dry i'm sure
[/quote]
Doesn't matter to me...I love cold weather and I don't look for some type of winter storm every time it gets cold...
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Storm5
Member
whatalife link said:
Yep nice and cold...
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[/quote] and dry i'm sure
[/quote]
Doesn't matter to me...I love cold weather and I don't look for some type of winter storm every time it gets cold...
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[/quote]
amen , plus I was in the mid 70s around christmas last year
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whatalife
Moderator
Storm5 link said:
Yep nice and cold...
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[/quote] and dry i'm sure
[/quote]
Doesn't matter to me...I love cold weather and I don't look for some type of winter storm every time it gets cold...
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[/quote]
amen , plus I was in the mid 70s around christmas last year
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[/quote]
For real...
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B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Storm5 link said:
Yep nice and cold...
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[/quote] and dry i'm sure
[/quote]
Doesn't matter to me...I love cold weather and I don't look for some type of winter storm every time it gets cold...
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[/quote]
amen , plus I was in the mid 70s around christmas last year
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[/quote]
I know know we can't get snow without the cold, but if it's just going to stay dry then the cold is just a waste to me.
Storm5
Member
Brick Tamland link said:
Yep nice and cold...
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[/quote] and dry i'm sure
[/quote]
Doesn't matter to me...I love cold weather and I don't look for some type of winter storm every time it gets cold...
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[/quote]
amen , plus I was in the mid 70s around christmas last year
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[/quote]
I know know we can't get snow without the cold, but if it's just going to stay dry then the cold is just a waste to me.
[/quote]
So people complain when it's hot and dry saying "we need rain " . Then when it rains it's " we didn't get enough" . Then it's , " average temps , that's it" . Then it's " Cold and no moisture , waste "
I mean we live in the SE, this is how the weather goes around here. People have crazy expectations that every time it's cold we should have a chance of wintry precip .
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whatalife
Moderator
Storm5 link said:
Yep nice and cold...
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[/quote] and dry i'm sure
[/quote]
Doesn't matter to me...I love cold weather and I don't look for some type of winter storm every time it gets cold...
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[/quote]
amen , plus I was in the mid 70s around christmas last year
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[/quote]
I know know we can't get snow without the cold, but if it's just going to stay dry then the cold is just a waste to me.
[/quote]
So people complain when it's hot and dry saying "we need rain " . Then when it rains it's " we didn't get enough" . Then it's , " average temps , that's it" . Then it's " Cold and no moisture , waste "
I mean we live in the SE, this is how the weather goes around here. People have crazy expectations that every time it's cold we should have a chance of wintry precip .
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[/quote]
It's called unrealistic expectations...
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Peresonally, I don't have unrealistic expections. I just want my seasonal snowfall average which is roughly 3". Is that too much to ask for ?
SoutheastRidge link said:
Yet it is if you expect it every year. You have to know this. It is an average and not a minimum. Actually, the median is even lower. So, you're going to get less than the longterm avg in the majority of years.
VegasEagle
Member
People now days have that "Just tell me when and how much snow I will have in my back yard" sindrome also
GaWx link said:
Yet it is if you expect it every year. You have to know this. It is an average and not a minimum. Actually, the median is even lower. So, you're going to get less than the longterm avg in the majority of years.
[/quote] honestly id be happy getting 50% of my average snowfall but lately it's been a struggle to even get 5% of my average.
olhausen
Member
I posted this in the light ice thread but thought I'd post it here also because it's so rare. My area is under a tornado watch and also under a winter weather advisory at the same time. Although it might have happened before I don't ever remember it happening in the 10 years I've lived in Tennessee.
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Storm5
Member
that's awesome !!!olhausen link said:I posted this in the light ice thread but thought I'd post it here also because it's so rare. My area is under a tornado watch and also under a winter weather advisory at the same time. Although it might have happened before I don't ever remember it happening in the 10 years I've lived in Tennessee.
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olhausen
Member
Here's the advisory.
...WINTER WEATHER WILL AFFECT MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
.COLD AIR WILL BE QUICKLY USHERED IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT STARTING LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE THE RAIN TO QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND POSSIBLE SNOW. FREEZING RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH A TENTH TO A FIFTEENTH OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATIONS ON ELEVATED AND USUALLY COLD SURFACES POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH ON SUNDAY.
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST SUNDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST SUNDAY. * TIMING...MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING. * MAIN IMPACT...A TENTH OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATION ON ELEVATED AND MAINLY COLD SURFACES. SOME SLEET ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE TOO. * OTHER IMPACTS...THE FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET COULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BRIEFLY IN THE MORNING. A LIGHT DUSTING MAY BE POSSIBLE ON MAINLY ROOFTOPS AND GRASSY SURFACES.
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...WINTER WEATHER WILL AFFECT MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
.COLD AIR WILL BE QUICKLY USHERED IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT STARTING LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE THE RAIN TO QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND POSSIBLE SNOW. FREEZING RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH A TENTH TO A FIFTEENTH OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATIONS ON ELEVATED AND USUALLY COLD SURFACES POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH ON SUNDAY.
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST SUNDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST SUNDAY. * TIMING...MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING. * MAIN IMPACT...A TENTH OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATION ON ELEVATED AND MAINLY COLD SURFACES. SOME SLEET ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE TOO. * OTHER IMPACTS...THE FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET COULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BRIEFLY IN THE MORNING. A LIGHT DUSTING MAY BE POSSIBLE ON MAINLY ROOFTOPS AND GRASSY SURFACES.
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Off the top of my head I can only remember one time here that we actually had Tornado Warnings, while a Winter Storm Warning was in place for later that night....March 1993.olhausen link said:I posted this in the light ice thread but thought I'd post it here also because it's so rare. My area is under a tornado watch and also under a winter weather advisory at the same time. Although it might have happened before I don't ever remember it happening in the 10 years I've lived in Tennessee.
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whatalife
Moderator
WOW! That's great...olhausen link said:I posted this in the light ice thread but thought I'd post it here also because it's so rare. My area is under a tornado watch and also under a winter weather advisory at the same time. Although it might have happened before I don't ever remember it happening in the 10 years I've lived in Tennessee.
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Storm5
Member
Re: December Discussion
omgd brent the 18z gfs says merry Christmas ... well it's close
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omgd brent the 18z gfs says merry Christmas ... well it's close
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Storm5
Member
Re: December Discussion
interesting setup christmas weekend . nice 1046 high over Iowa
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interesting setup christmas weekend . nice 1046 high over Iowa
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Storm5
Member
Re: December Discussion
northern Arkansas , Oklahoma and Texas crushed with a christmas snow this run . foot place for many locations
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northern Arkansas , Oklahoma and Texas crushed with a christmas snow this run . foot place for many locations
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Storm5
Member
Re: December Discussion
if this rolls forward it's a winter storm threat at least for all of Tennessee and Arkansas the 25th -26th . instead this run it seperates from any northern stream interaction and ended up like this . wow that was close.
good
bad
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if this rolls forward it's a winter storm threat at least for all of Tennessee and Arkansas the 25th -26th . instead this run it seperates from any northern stream interaction and ended up like this . wow that was close.
good
bad
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GaWx link said:
as a total weather amateur, this question is for the experts: how do the global models handle extreme cold airmass(es)? does forecast accuracy drop?
[/quote]
They seem to do ok on the cold, this cold shot has been pretty well modeled and Chicago and Minneapolis and all those areas are very close to December record cold and all we get is a day or two at 15-20 degrees below avg , then back to your ho hum avg to maybe occasional 10 degree below normal highs! Would be nice to get some single digits into the Carolinas and Georgia, but maybe that's just me! Glad the Christmas torch, looks to be muted, to non existent!
[/quote]
I don't know about your area but I do know that single digits would much more often than mean no significant winter storm for a place like ATL though that may give places much further south/east a better chance. ATL has a much better chance when it gets a day or two of lows in the 20's vs singles in advance of any precip. This is based on going through all of the major storms going back to the late 1800's. I may need to go through the #'s & present them here if I ever get time.
[/quote]
For the 38 major SN/IP's at ATL since 1879, here are the lowest lows for the three prior days and including the morning low of the day the storm starts if that was prior to the start like in 1979:
46 (this was the March 2009 upper low), 41 (Blizzard of Mar 1993), 37, 35 (Feb of 2014), 33 (Mar 24, 1983), 32, 32, 30, 29, 29, 29, 28, 28, 27, 25, 24, 23, 23, 23, 22, 21, 20, 19 (Jan 2011), 18, 17, 15, 15, 13, 11, 11, 9, 8, 8, 8, 8, 0, -1, -5 (Snowjam Jan 1982)
Though there are many in the 20's+ (22), there are actually more singles or colder, 8, than I had recalled. That may be because 7 of these 8 were 1940 and earlier. In reverse chron order: 35, 19, 23, 46, 22, 41, 18, 24, 32, 33, -5, 28, 29, 23, 21, 37, 28, 8, 11, 13, 23, 8, 27, 15, 15, 20, 11, 30, 9, 0, 32, 8, 29, 25, 8, 17, -1, 29
Since 1942, avg 27. Before 1942, avg only 16!
Brent
Member
Re: December Discussion
Lol I'll roadtrip for that 18 inches near okc
Storm5 link said:
Lol I'll roadtrip for that 18 inches near okc
Brent
Member
27 degrees and mist here... it was 73 degrees at 1pm
GaWx link said:
For the 38 major SN/IP's at ATL since 1879, here are the lowest lows for the three prior days and including the morning low of the day the storm starts if that was prior to the start like in 1979:
46 (this was the March 2009 upper low), 41 (Blizzard of Mar 1993), 37, 35 (Feb of 2014), 33 (Mar 24, 1983), 32, 32, 30, 29, 29, 29, 28, 28, 27, 25, 24, 23, 23, 23, 22, 21, 20, 19 (Jan 2011), 18, 17, 15, 15, 13, 11, 11, 9, 8, 8, 8, 8, 0, -1, -5 (Snowjam Jan 1982)
Though there are many in the 20's+ (22), there are actually more singles or colder, 8, than I had recalled. That may be because 7 of these 8 were 1940 and earlier. In reverse chron order: 35, 19, 23, 46, 22, 41, 18, 24, 32, 33, -5, 28, 29, 23, 21, 37, 28, 8, 11, 13, 23, 8, 27, 15, 15, 20, 11, 30, 9, 0, 32, 8, 29, 25, 8, 17, -1, 29
Since 1942, avg 27. Before 1942, avg only 16!
[/quote]
Just to follow up on the stats above, I counted 8 major Atlanta SN/IP storms since 1879 that immediately followed airmasses with the coldest in the single digits or lower. I counted 66 airmasses since 1879 giving ATL single digits or colder. That means that 8 of 66 or 12%/about 1 in 8 of these extreme airmasses gave ATL a major SN or IP immediately following it. To be fair, however, there have been very roughly 1,500 airmasses bringing coldest lows of teens to 20's (average roughly 12/year). They had 22 major SN/IP follow them or only about 1.5 for every hundred of them. So, even though the number of major SN/IP following airmasses with coldest of teens-20's has been 22 vs only 8 after coldest in the single digits or colder, that is deceiving because the % of the single digits or colder airmasses having a major SN/IP immediately following them has been about 8 times as high as those with teens-20s for coldest.
In summary, I have to say I learned something new today. The chances of a major SN/IP at ATL immediately following a single digit or colder airmass are actually much higher (by a factor of about eight) than an airmass with coldest of 10-29 even though only about 1 in 8 of these extreme cold airmasses lead to one (since they are usually too overpoweringly dry at first and then they warm too fast later) and even though there have been roughly three times as many of them following airmasses with 10-29 for the coldest.
Edit: I want to add a couple more things. I'm lumping together the teens-20's airmasses in saying that they've gotten major SN/IP after only 1.5% of them. Had I separated out the teens airmasses from the 20's airmasses, the % following the teens airmasses would have been a good bit than the 1.5% (probably near 2.5-3%) and those following the 20's airmasses would have been lower (probably near 1%).
So, at ATL a major SN/IP followed ~1 in 8 of airmasses with 9 F or colder, ~1 in 35-40 of those with teens for coldest , and ~1 in 100 of those with 20's for coldest.
Another thing: these don’t include nonmajor SN/IP, which are way more common than major, of course. In addition, I haven't analyzed ZR's yet.
Storm5
Member
wowBrent link said:
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Brent
Member
Currently 22 with a wind chill of 6. It's a bit nippy out there. Been gusts over 35 mph. Not much precip though
0z gfs is close to snow in Dallas on Christmas day
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Cary_Snow95
Member
That SE ridge haunts my dreams
Brent
Member
*almost faints* those snow totals NW of here...
whatalife
Moderator
WOW!Brent link said:*almost faints*
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Brent
Member
I might have to go to Oklahoma City and get stranded for a week lmfao
Cary_Snow95
Member
Mexico will end up with more snow than most of the SE
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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It's close to continued crap for the Carolinas, if you want snow!SD link said: