• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern December Discussion

  I thought a Brazilian was where they removed all your short and curlies...so doesn't that mean no sleet for Ga?  It was cold enough for sleet last night, but it didn't precipitate.  Now the precip is coming in, and it'll warm right up.  Funny how that's the norm in Ga.  Must have something to do with all the heat that hangs around here during most of the year.  Where's a good volcano when we need one?  T
 
Dsaur link said:
  I thought a Brazilian was where they removed all your short and curlies...so doesn't that mean no sleet for Ga?  It was cold enough for sleet last night, but it didn't precipitate.  Now the precip is coming in, and it'll warm right up.  Funny how that's the norm in Ga.  Must have something to do with all the heat that hangs around here during most of the year.  Where's a good volcano when we need one?  T
Click to expand...

Where are you at south of Atlanta?
 
Dsaur link said:
  I thought a Brazilian was where they removed all your short and curlies...so doesn't that mean no sleet for Ga?  It was cold enough for sleet last night, but it didn't precipitate.  Now the precip is coming in, and it'll warm right up.  Funny how that's the norm in Ga.  Must have something to do with all the heat that hangs around here during most of the year.  Where's a good volcano when we need one?  T
Click to expand...
NICE!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Storm5 link said:
lol Judah is hyping more artic outbreaks as January nears

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

That's what Judah and JB do.
 
tennessee storm link said:
[quote author=tennessee storm link=topic=2.msg2348#msg2348 date=1481916076]
12z. Says. Another Xmas with severe weather ... Southern plains to parts Midsouth look to be included thus far ..
Click to expand...
12 z euro. I might. Add
[/quote]
How far east does it get?
 
Brick Tamland link said:
If we could get another two week period like we did in Jan 2000, then it wouldn't matter how the rest of winter ends up. It does seem since then most of our winters have been all or nothing. Hard to remember the last time we had a winter with wall to wall storms every month from December through February. It seems if we do get anything now it comes in one or two week stretches.
Click to expand...

For my area the 2010/2011 winter had snowfalls of 2 inches or more every month from December through February. It was definitely the best winter I can remember even though I never got more then 4 inches out of any single storm that season. I also got snow on Christmas that year which is something I'll never forget.

I always get so excited for winter only to get a little sad by December when I realize that even up here in northern Tennessee we rarely see a good snowfall before January. So far this year I have yet to see a flake fall from the sky.
 
Well, the cold snap was pretty good for early in the winter season here. It stayed in the low 40s all day and I think CAD is trying to set itself up already as it got cloudy (and I'm in an area that just gets indirectly affected by it).

So in two days it's going to get up to 73 here, but just for one day. It'll be 47 on Monday. Crazy.
 
GeorgiaGirl link said:
Well, the cold snap was pretty good for early in the winter season here. It stayed in the low 40s all day and I think CAD is trying to set itself up already as it got cloudy (and I'm in an area that just gets indirectly affected by it).

So in two days it's going to get up to 73 here, but just for one day. It'll be 47 on Monday. Crazy.
Click to expand...

Where do you live? CAD has been setup all day here, I briefly rose to 39.0 at 3:04, back down to 34.4 now with a 15 dp. Just need precip...
 
The late hours of the euro control are probably rolling toward something nice

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk
 
CummingWx link said:
[quote author=GeorgiaGirl link=topic=2.msg2402#msg2402 date=1481935290]
Well, the cold snap was pretty good for early in the winter season here. It stayed in the low 40s all day and I think CAD is trying to set itself up already as it got cloudy (and I'm in an area that just gets indirectly affected by it).

So in two days it's going to get up to 73 here, but just for one day. It'll be 47 on Monday. Crazy.
Click to expand...

Where do you live? CAD has been setup all day here, I briefly rose to 39.0 at 3:04, back down to 34.4 now with a 15 dp. Just need precip...
[/quote]

I'm in Augusta. I'm not really looking for winter weather here, but I'll be interested in seeing if whether the areas that really get effected by CAD see some light ice early tomorrow, and seeing how long the CAD holds on before it erodes.
 
GeorgiaGirl link said:
[quote author=CummingWx link=topic=2.msg2404#msg2404 date=1481937862]
[quote author=GeorgiaGirl link=topic=2.msg2402#msg2402 date=1481935290]
Well, the cold snap was pretty good for early in the winter season here. It stayed in the low 40s all day and I think CAD is trying to set itself up already as it got cloudy (and I'm in an area that just gets indirectly affected by it).

So in two days it's going to get up to 73 here, but just for one day. It'll be 47 on Monday. Crazy.
Click to expand...

Where do you live? CAD has been setup all day here, I briefly rose to 39.0 at 3:04, back down to 34.4 now with a 15 dp. Just need precip...
[/quote]

I'm in Augusta. I'm not really looking for winter weather here, but I'll be interested in seeing if whether the areas that really get effected by CAD see some light ice early tomorrow, and seeing how long the CAD holds on before it erodes.
[/quote]

So will I. If you're into extreme temperature gradients created by the wedge, there will almost certainly be one tomorrow from Peachtree City to Gainesville. If we can get enough precip to lock in an in-situ wedge tonight, then I wouldn't be surprised to see 60s (possibly near 70) to 30s from PC to GVL sometime tomorrow as the wedge front retreats NE as a warm front. Will be fascinating to watch the battle.
 
SD link said:
The late hours of the euro control are probably rolling toward something nice

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Control knows how to bring in the new year
 
SD link said:
The late hours of the euro control are probably rolling toward something nice

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
How far does that go out ?
 
Tarheel1 link said:
[quote author=SD link=topic=2.msg2408#msg2408 date=1481938787]
The late hours of the euro control are probably rolling toward something nice

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
How far does that go out ?
[/quote]
384

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk
 
man the " torch " that was showing in previous gfs runs is all but gone. the end of next week's looks entertaining 
a1cabc3fbbca8c3043f5b8eeb0aae843.jpg


Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
 
Storm5 link said:
man the " torch " that was showing in previous gfs runs is all but gone. the end of next week's looks entertaining 
a1cabc3fbbca8c3043f5b8eeb0aae843.jpg


Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Nice...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Simply amazing...The Memphis forecast for Saturday and Sunday... High of 73 and thunderstorms on Saturday... Saturday night the arctic front rolls in with a 90% chance FZR and sleet with .5" of ice possible...Sunday, sunny with a high near 28 with winds out of the north at 20 mph...Sunday night clear and a low of 14. That's a 60 degree temperature drop from thunderstorms to possible ice...while not unprecedented it certainly is unusual. :eek:


Saturday
A chance of showers, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 73. Breezy, with a south southwest wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Saturday Night
Rain showers before midnight, then a chance of freezing rain and sleet. Some thunder is also possible. Low around 26. Blustery, with a southwest wind 15 to 20 mph becoming north after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. New sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Sunday
Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, with a high near 28. Blustery, with a north wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Sunday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 14. North northeast wind 10 to 15 mph.
 
Seems like when the models show a torch they end up backing off just a day or two later. Really feel like we could have a good storm before the end of the month. We have tonight's little event,  and another possible event Monday night into Tuesday. Seen this happen before where we get a couple of small events here followed by a big one soon after.
 
Brick Tamland link said:
Seems like when the models show a torch they end up backing off just a day or two later. Really feel like we could have a good storm before the end of the month. We have tonight's little event,  and another possible event Monday night into Tuesday. Seen this happen before where we get a couple of small events here followed by a big one soon after.
Click to expand...
Appetizers !
 
Storm5 link said:
man the " torch " that was showing in previous gfs runs is all but gone. the end of next week's looks entertaining
Click to expand...

Yep. What big torch as the Euro has cooled for the 6-10 to near normal or even a little colder than normal. Note that the Euro's (EPS) MJO fcast actually continues to be more favorable for cold than mild fwiw with very low amp and trying to rotate back to the left side of the circle:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_full.gif
 
Per the Euro, ATL will be very near normal for Dec mtd as of 12/26. That would bode better than Dec ending up mild as far as the stats suggest for chances of a torchy Jan. Also, as stated above, the MJO doesn't give much support for a mild SE. If anything, it is more conducive for cold than mild fwiw. We'll see.
 
GaWx link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg2438#msg2438 date=1481949208]
man the " torch " that was showing in previous gfs runs is all but gone. the end of next week's looks entertaining
Click to expand...

Yep. What big torch as the Euro has cooled for the 6-10 to near normal or even a little colder than normal. Note that the Euro's (EPS) MJO fcast actually continues to be more favorable for cold than mild fwiw with very low amp and trying to rotate back to the left side of the circle:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_full.gif
[/quote]
Yep the euro keeps rdu at or below normal all week next week.

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk
 
Re: December Discussion

drfranklin link said:
[quote author=bigstick10 link=topic=2.msg2453#msg2453 date=1481981908]
Some of the coldest air in decades coming in to the midwest, and Atl does not even go below freezing?
Click to expand...

as a total weather amateur, this question is for the experts: how do the global models handle extreme cold airmass(es)? does forecast accuracy drop?
[/quote]
I'm no expert that's for sure . i guess this is more a pattern response but at least for this young season the models have struggled greatly IMO .HM mentions over and over the fact that the models are not handling the pacific wave train correctly which is why we have seen well above normal looks verify much closer to normal. This is not a good pattern for the SE as SD has pointed out many times. But here we are averaging out closer to normal with some little threats hear and there when in reality we could be well above normal.

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
 
drfranklin link said:
[quote author=bigstick10 link=topic=2.msg2453#msg2453 date=1481981908]
Some of the coldest air in decades coming in to the midwest, and Atl does not even go below freezing?
Click to expand...

as a total weather amateur, this question is for the experts: how do the global models handle extreme cold airmass(es)? does forecast accuracy drop?
[/quote]
They seem to do ok on the cold, this cold shot has been pretty well modeled and Chicago and Minneapolis and all those areas are very close to December record cold and all we get is a day or two at 15-20 degrees below avg , then back to your ho hum avg to maybe occasional 10 degree below normal highs! Would be nice to get some single digits into the Carolinas and Georgia, but maybe that's just me! Glad the Christmas torch, looks to be muted, to non existent!
 
GFS has lows in the mid 60's Monday after Xmas. No way that verifies. Right?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
bigstick10 link said:
[quote author=ATLWxFan link=topic=2.msg2465#msg2465 date=1481986034]
GFS has lows in the mid 60's Monday after Xmas. No way that verifies. Right?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

That is pretty insane.......
[/quote]
It also has a full blown snow storm at hour 384...past 5 days - no clue
 
We are going to have to wait until Feb for any winter weather. This winter seems to be playing out like the winter of 1988-89 which means no chance for snow or ice until around Feb 15 and then only for NC and SC. Little if any winter weather in AL, GA, or Miss this winter.
 
JHS link said:
We are going to have to wait until Feb for any winter weather. This winter seems to be playing out like the winter of 1988-89 which means no chance for snow or ice until around Feb 15 and then only for NC and SC. Little if any winter weather in AL, GA, or Miss this winter.
Click to expand...
Lol! I thought we were gonna have to wait till January for rain???
 
Tarheel1 link said:
[quote author=drfranklin link=topic=2.msg2455#msg2455 date=1481983011]
[quote author=bigstick10 link=topic=2.msg2453#msg2453 date=1481981908]
Some of the coldest air in decades coming in to the midwest, and Atl does not even go below freezing?
Click to expand...

as a total weather amateur, this question is for the experts: how do the global models handle extreme cold airmass(es)? does forecast accuracy drop?
[/quote]
They seem to do ok on the cold, this cold shot has been pretty well modeled and Chicago and Minneapolis and all those areas are very close to December record cold and all we get is a day or two at 15-20 degrees below avg , then back to your ho hum avg to maybe occasional 10 degree below normal highs! Would be nice to get some single digits into the Carolinas and Georgia, but maybe that's just me! Glad the Christmas torch, looks to be muted, to non existent!
[/quote]

I don't know about your area but I do know that single digits would much more often than mean no significant winter storm for a place like ATL though that may give places much further south/east a better chance. ATL has a much better chance when it gets a day or two of lows in the 20's vs singles in advance of any precip. This is based on going through all of the major storms going back to the late 1800's. I may need to go through the #'s & present them here if I ever get time.
 
12z gfs has snow around day 10 for miss, Alabama and Ga. it's from a low cutting up the apps so it's wrap around but it's still something
 
If that low doesn't go up the apps it's a good snowstorm for many. If you're on the west side of that low you're getting snow
 
The kind of cold snap we got yesterday just came too early for the South to get really cold temps. If it came a month later, a lot of locales would have struggled to get above freezing.

The polar vortex was involved and it was strong, there just wasn't enough snowpack for it in the northern parts of North America to not moderate a little.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top