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Pattern December Discussion

I was thinking that most were calling for a dry near average extended term this year?
 
It would help if we could get a +PNA, -AO, and -NAO combination leading in to January. Looks like the indices are not lining up the way we want them right now.

It does appear the PNA wants to go positive towards the end of the month.
pna.sprd2.gif


IMO, the main driver is the AO... It wants to spike positive which we don't want but looks like it wants to go negative later in the month.
ao.sprd2.gif


A little blocking would also help...we want to lock in the cold and drive the LP's further south.
nao.sprd2.gif


Regardless of the seasonal forecasts we see every year, January and February will always be our best winter months just based on climatology. The bottom line is Winter has just begun with a lot of model watching to go. ;D
 
Re: December Discussion

ATLWxFan link said:
Why all the despair in December? When do we reliably get wintry threats this month? I don't buy the whole if we don't cash in now we are screwed because January and February will be warm line of thinking. We don't reliably know any of that for a fact. I know that despite what we've said about these awful models, we still seem to live and die by them. That being said, I think someone cashes in before Christmas.


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no despair here. just amazing that it looks like we waste such an amazingly cold air mass, cause once the PV consolidates and moves towards the pole the air in canada will modify and I doubt we see temps up there like we are gonna see over the coming weeks -50's.

I'm still 100 percent on a front loaded winter and still believe our best chances are between now and the 3rd week of January . I'm all in on February being AN. That does not mean we won't have a chance or two along the way. but IMO the month will average AN



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In attempt to spread a little cheer on here this AM after disappointing overnight runs - I give you the updated 45 day CFSv2 Snowfall Clown... most of us would take the second map on here:
5f2156a948a2e166958d25bbd4db0544.jpg



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Re: December Discussion

ATLWxFan link said:
Why all the despair in December? When do we reliably get wintry threats this month? I don't buy the whole if we don't cash in now we are screwed because January and February will be warm line of thinking. We don't reliably know any of that for a fact. I know that despite what we've said about these awful models, we still seem to live and die by them. That being said, I think someone cashes in before Christmas.


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ATL over the last hundred years has averaged only 0.3" of SN/IP in Dec (0.1" 1st half and 0.2" 2nd half). That is only ~15% of its average seasonal total of ~2". Only 18 of the last 100 ATL Decembers have had measurable SN/IP. In contrast, 0.8" has fallen on average in Jan over the last 100 years with 45 of them having had measurable. In Feb, 0.4" avg/30 of them had measurable. Mar: 0.4" avg/15 of them. Note that most of this is based on the airport, which is south of town. A few of the years are based on downtown. The northside is obviously higher in freq/amts though I have no hard stats. My guess would be that the northside gets ~3"/year on avg. Regardless, this gives one the idea about Dec being relatively quiet.

Aside: Back in the late 1800's/early 1900's, Feb was a big SN/IP month with close to 1.5"/month!! Jan was near 1.4". Dec was near 0.7". (Mar was only near 0.1".). So, seasonal SN/IP was ~3.8" or about double the subsequent 100 years' rate! One reason: it was colder then on average, esp. in Feb. Also, the station was in the city, not south of town.

  Looking at history, ZR's don't pick up there too much in frequency til the last week of Dec. I will reiterate that due to us being in neutral negative ENSO that this winter's chances for a major ZR or IP are ~50%, which is about 3 times the chance for other winters. Most major ZR's there have occurred between late Dec and early Feb.
 
What happens over Europe into Scandinavia over the next 1-2 weeks may have big implications as to where we go in January. Certainly looks like we are going to get a nice Scandy high in place soon and if we can retrograde toward greenland in time we may see the process of forming a -NAO for the first half of January much like the evolution of the Euro weeklies.
 
Supershow link said:
In attempt to spread a little cheer on here this AM after disappointing overnight runs - I give you the updated 45 day CFSv2 Snowfall Clown... most of us would take the second map on here:
5f2156a948a2e166958d25bbd4db0544.jpg



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Number 2 for the win...... CHECK PLEASE!  ;) :snowflake: :snowman:
 
so it looks like we really had two waves to watch . the first one on Saturday mainly for CAD regions and a second wave develops along the front Sunday into Monday back west. just depends on how far SE the front can push.  SD mentioned yesterday about Arkansas and west tenn m those areas would do well with the second wave IF the front makes enough progress

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Storm5 link said:
so it looks like we really had two waves to watch . the first one on Saturday mainly for CAD regions and a second wave develops along the front Sunday into Monday back west. just depends on how far SE the front can push.  SD mentioned yesterday about Arkansas and west tenn m those areas would do well with the second wave IF the front makes enough progress

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Big if right now...


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whatalife link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg1146#msg1146 date=1481384969]
so it looks like we really had two waves to watch . the first one on Saturday mainly for CAD regions and a second wave develops along the front Sunday into Monday back west. just depends on how far SE the front can push.  SD mentioned yesterday about Arkansas and west tenn m those areas would do well with the second wave IF the front makes enough progress

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Big if right now...


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[/quote]
your avatar has it going on

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Storm5 link said:
[quote author=whatalife link=topic=2.msg1147#msg1147 date=1481385829]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg1146#msg1146 date=1481384969]
so it looks like we really had two waves to watch . the first one on Saturday mainly for CAD regions and a second wave develops along the front Sunday into Monday back west. just depends on how far SE the front can push.  SD mentioned yesterday about Arkansas and west tenn m those areas would do well with the second wave IF the front makes enough progress

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Big if right now...


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[/quote]
your avatar has it going on

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[/quote]

My dream girl...HAHA! Hot like last December.


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There's always a lot of ifs and butts, when it comes to wintry precip in the south!
 
whatalife link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg1153#msg1153 date=1481388382]
12z gfs ..... lol horrible
b967ddb6075d26b6b62dd1932024efca.jpg


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A December to remember!


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[/quote]
Yeah, last December!
 
Re: December Discussion

12z cmc is an ice storm in the cad regions
7acb63564e3b5dfd2238e1cae55fc457.jpg

then tries to pop another system next Monday but it's crushed
6030cc36e39d57e03a64ee6397b41ebd.jpg

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