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Pattern December Discussion

See if this works:
gfs_6hr_snow_acc_conus2_65.png
 
NorthGaWinter link said:
Oh Canada
Click to expand...
exactly what's being discussed . nice little overrunning .

Of course it's the Canadian and their military blows, just like their op model

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Supershow link said:
See if this works:
Click to expand...

This clown map shows several inches of snow from just north of Brunswick, GA up along the coast to near Charleston. Whereas that would be awesome, that's not accurate as per the precip./850 mb maps. So, I have to question the accuracy of this clown.
 
SD link said:
[quote author=Brick Tamland link=topic=2.msg636#msg636 date=1481217271]
Looks like just rain for me.
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Yep, but I would take my chances with the cold vs the SE ridge in this type of scenario and we get a lot more wintry precip
[/quote]

I do like the number of chances showing up, and the shot we have at something the last half of the month with all these threats showing up. No guarantees, but it''s like the difference in Curry having the ball to take a last second three to win the game versus me. He might miss, but he has a much better shot at hitting it than me, and looks like Curry is going to have the ball.
 
Im fairly excited for the GEFS and Euro today. This usually starts the downward spiral to fail
 
GaWx link said:
[quote author=Supershow link=topic=2.msg643#msg643 date=1481217623]
See if this works:
Click to expand...

This clown map shows several inches of snow from just north of Brunswick, GA up along the coast to near Charleston. Whereas that would be awesome, that's not accurate as per the precip./850 mb maps. So, I have to question the accuracy of this clown.
[/quote]

Can't have a good weather forum discussion without a good Clown... 8)
 
Re: December Discussion

SD link said:
Im fairly excited for the GEFS and Euro today. This usually starts the downward spiral to fail
Click to expand...
12z gefs is about like the last 24 hours of gefs runs. Lots of potential . Multiple blasts of cold and many systems. supportive of the H5 pattern on the op
6de4bfd6cf62665661fccce76c93d1ae.jpg


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SoutheastRidge link said:
Dang we can't even score on the clown map. Looks good for the Ohio Valley and Northeast though !
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why would you want to score with a clown map? who cares, it's the overall pattern that matters

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Storm5 link said:
[quote author=SoutheastRidge link=topic=2.msg653#msg653 date=1481218877]
Dang we can't even score on the clown map. Looks good for the Ohio Valley and Northeast though !
Click to expand...
why would you want to score with a clown map? who cares, it's the overall pattern that matters

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[/quote]

He's lost in translation...


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Storm5 link said:
[quote author=NorthGaWinter link=topic=2.msg645#msg645 date=1481217757]
Oh Canada
Click to expand...
exactly what's being discussed . nice little overrunning .

Of course it's the Canadian and their military blows, just like their op model

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
[/quote]
The CMC scored some victories in the last couple of years, especially in CAD events!
 
Storm5 link said:
agreed , in fact I'm starting to get on the 4-6 weeks of a general cold pattern before it all goes to hell late January. Obviously not sustained cold for 4-6 weeks. but enough of a cold pattern to give us chances vs having to wait on a pattern shuffle. I was sold on a pattern breakdown before the new year, I have doubts now
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The current and forecasted MJO is in full agreement with cold as it is and will continue to be within the circle for awhile per the EPS. Within or just outside the circle (i.e., low amplitude), especially on the left side, is what one wants to see for the best shot at a sustained cold pattern as it has a better correlation to SE US cold than being well outside the circle:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_51m_full.gif


Historic examples of low amplitude MJO (mainly either inside or just outside the circle) when the SE was cold:

Jan 1977 (red line): http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/archive/MJO_phase/197701.phase.90days.gif

Jan 1982  (red line): http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/archive/MJO_phase/198201.phase.90days.gif

Dec 1983 (blue line): http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/archive/MJO_phase/198310.phase.90days.gif

Early Jan of 1988  (red line): http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/archive/MJO_phase/198801.phase.90days.gif

Dec of 1989 (blue line): http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/archive/MJO_phase/198910.phase.90days.gif

Dec of 2000 (blue line): http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/archive/MJO_phase/200010.phase.90days.gif

Jan of 2010 (red line): http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/archive/MJO_phase/201001.phase.90days.gif

Dec of 2010 (blue line): http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/archive/MJO_phase/201010.phase.90days.gif

Jan of 2014 (red line): http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/archive/MJO_phase/201401.phase.90days.gif
 
Re: December Discussion

12z euro keeps the PV further north next week vs the gfs

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Weatherlover92 link said:
[quote author=Bones link=topic=2.msg629#msg629 date=1481216795]
Maps Maps Maps Please !!!
Click to expand...

First Arctic Blast
jPAQPd6.png


Here is 12z Euro at same time:
 
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