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Pattern December Discussion

At 0z Saturday rdu is 30/6 with an 850 of -4. I'll take it

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whatalife link said:
IMO...Nothing to right home about w/the EPS...


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Yeah it's all over the place with systems in 16th-21st and the lr isn't that great but that's expected .not great but not horrible

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can't believe I'm watching the 18z gfs come knowing it's on an island compared to the other models

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Storm5 link said:
can't believe I'm watching the 18z gfs come knowing it's on an island compared to the other models

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Addiction! LOL!


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whatalife link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg1195#msg1195 date=1481408135]
can't believe I'm watching the 18z gfs come knowing it's on an island compared to the other models

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Addiction! LOL!


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[/quote]
Hi,

I'm Charlie, I have a weather addiction problem

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Good to see we still have a solid shot at something next week. I will be surprised if we don't get a winter storm here sometime this month with the way things are progressing.
 
Re: December Discussion

big H5 changes on th e 18z run .gfs is trying to correct the west trough idea east

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man if this would that energy would just kick east
a2d1069d181500dacb7ac6eef15454ac.jpg


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definitely a correction towards the euro and cmc as far as the ridge strength and progressing the trough to the east

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Storm5 link said:
man if this would that energy would just kick east
a2d1069d181500dacb7ac6eef15454ac.jpg


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Looks like a little money in the bank there...LOL!


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18z gefs is excited about the 17th-20th for western areas like Mississippi , Arkansas , west tennessee. this would be where the front pushes in and stalls out as a wave moves along it

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Storm5 link said:
18z gefs is excited about the 17th-20th for western areas like Mississippi , Arkansas , west tennessee. this would be where the front pushes in and stalls out as a wave moves along it

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How nice for them.


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whatalife link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg1210#msg1210 date=1481413343]
18z gefs is excited about the 17th-20th for western areas like Mississippi , Arkansas , west tennessee. this would be where the front pushes in and stalls out as a wave moves along it

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How nice for them.


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[/quote]
hey, we have members in each of those states . it's not all about south Carolina

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Storm5 link said:
[quote author=whatalife link=topic=2.msg1212#msg1212 date=1481413513]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg1210#msg1210 date=1481413343]
18z gefs is excited about the 17th-20th for western areas like Mississippi , Arkansas , west tennessee. this would be where the front pushes in and stalls out as a wave moves along it

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Click to expand...

How nice for them.


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[/quote]
hey, we have members in each of those states . it's not all about south Carolina

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[/quote]
And did I say it was all about SC. I was being serious when I said how nice for them.


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whatalife link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg1216#msg1216 date=1481414723]
[quote author=whatalife link=topic=2.msg1212#msg1212 date=1481413513]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg1210#msg1210 date=1481413343]
18z gefs is excited about the 17th-20th for western areas like Mississippi , Arkansas , west tennessee. this would be where the front pushes in and stalls out as a wave moves along it

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Click to expand...

How nice for them.


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[/quote]
hey, we have members in each of those states . it's not all about south Carolina

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[/quote]
And did I say it was all about SC. I was being serious when I said how nice for them.


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[/quote]
it was a joke ....

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December Discussion

Storm5 link said:
[quote author=whatalife link=topic=2.msg1219#msg1219 date=1481415790]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg1216#msg1216 date=1481414723]
[quote author=whatalife link=topic=2.msg1212#msg1212 date=1481413513]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg1210#msg1210 date=1481413343]
18z gefs is excited about the 17th-20th for western areas like Mississippi , Arkansas , west tennessee. this would be where the front pushes in and stalls out as a wave moves along it

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Click to expand...

How nice for them.


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[/quote]
hey, we have members in each of those states . it's not all about south Carolina

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[/quote]
And did I say it was all about SC. I was being serious when I said how nice for them.


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[/quote]
it was a joke ....

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[/quote]
Oh...Sorry...My backyard is important to me though...LOL! And I guess my backyard deserves winter desolation b/c of the 4.5" of snow I got on the 1st of November 2014


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The pattern is very volitile. You can see huge run to run changes on both the GFS and the Euro. Anything past 5 days is a crap shoot really.
 
Met1985 link said:
The pattern is very volitile. You can see huge run to run changes on both the GFS and the Euro. Anything past 5 days is a crap shoot really.
Click to expand...
Agreed, I am not on board with the ice storm just yet, but you can't ignore the Canadian/Euro combo. Keep in mind that today's runs will not be the final solution. It almost never is with model depictions a week out.
 
WPC added 10-20% probs for light accumulating ice tomorrow night from Wilkes County and points south-west. Ground is frozen here in the shade...wouldn't take much if the precip came in sooner for some icy bridges.
 
Met1985 link said:
The pattern is very volitile. You can see huge run to run changes on both the GFS and the Euro. Anything past 5 days is a crap shoot really.
Click to expand...
to add to that , you can see it in the ensembles as they have some substantial changes as well about every other run

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Cad Wedge NC link said:
[quote author=Met1985 link=topic=2.msg1227#msg1227 date=1481420459]
The pattern is very volitile. You can see huge run to run changes on both the GFS and the Euro. Anything past 5 days is a crap shoot really.
Click to expand...
Agreed, I am not on board with the ice storm just yet, but you can't ignore the Canadian/Euro combo. Keep in mind that today's runs will not be the final solution. It almost never is with model depictions a week out.
[/quote]Oh I agree. At least we have something to track. I think we will have some things to track but we will enter a better period in January and February.
 
Storm5 link said:
[quote author=Met1985 link=topic=2.msg1227#msg1227 date=1481420459]
The pattern is very volitile. You can see huge run to run changes on both the GFS and the Euro. Anything past 5 days is a crap shoot really.
Click to expand...
to add to that , you can see it in the ensembles as they have some substantial changes as well about every other run

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[/quote]Bingo! When even the ensembles have huge changes that is telling as there is so much going on in the atmosphere that the models simply cannot grasp the future. Shoot just look at the AO indicie. You have a spread from plus 5 to negative 3. If that does not que you in on some big upper atmosphereic mysteries then I do not know what will.
 
GSP still has some mention of a wintry event.


000
FXUS62 KGSP 110233
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
933 PM EST Sat Dec 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold high pressure overhead tonight will move off the mid
Atlantic coast Sunday as another cold front crosses the Plains
states.  Expect this front to cross our region Monday with rain
chances remaining into mid week. Another blast of cold air will
settle across our area in the later half of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 930 PM EST: Going forecast generally on track. Cirrus just now
moving into the the area from the NW and winds have become light to
near calm. Have updated for these trends. Temps look good with only
minor changes needed.

Otherwise, the upper level flow pattern will become increasingly
zonal tonight into Sunday. Meanwhile, cold and dry surface high
pressure centered over the Appalachians will move off the east coast
through Sunday. With any appreciable mid level moisture moving by to
the north, overnight clouds should be confined to thin cirrus and
another cold night of mins in the 20s throughout is expected.

Broad upper troughing will then develop through Sunday over the
central CONUS. Meanwhile, 850 mb flow will toggle southerly
overnight and increase through Sunday, with low level Atlantic
upglide moisture steadily making a run into the region from the
southeast. Anticipate mainly an increase in clouds, but with
isolated light rain PoPs developing in south/southeast upslope areas
as well as across the lower piedmont late in the day. Onset profiles
are marginally cold/dry enough for a light rain/snow mix along the
higher ridges with any early arriving precip, but this will not be
featured since PoPs are so low. In addition, ridge top winds will
become gusty in the improving southerly flow through Sunday
afternoon. Temps will rebound marginally, but the rise will be
limited by increasing clouds despite the improving southerly flow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At 2 PM Saturday: on Sunday night nearly zonal upper level flow will
be in place over the CONUS. This pattern persists into Tuesday, with
the bulk of upper level energy channeled across the northern tier of
states. The GFS does show and advection vort lobe crossing the
Southern Appalachians on Monday morning however.

At the surface, on Sunday night moisture will be increasing across
Northeast Georgia and the Western Carolinas in advance of an
approaching cold front. The front reaches the Southern Appalachians
by Monday morning, moving to the Piedmont by afternoon. The front
stalls to the south of our area on Monday night, while moisture
persists to its north across our area. This pattern persists into
Tuesday.

Precipitation over our area is expected to start as early as late
Sunday in the mountains, and spreading east across the rest of the
area Sunday night. The main issue with this forecast will be
precipitation type on each night. With a warm nose aloft present,
snow is not expected. Some guidance suggests freezing rain in
isolated portions of the mountains, while other guidance is warmer
to begin with and would support liquid rain. Temperatures will
generally run above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 245 PM EST Saturday:  The medium range fcst period kicks
off on Tuesday night amidst broad cyclonic flow aloft, while a
cold frontal axis slowly shifts south through north GA into the
Carolinas.  Behind this front is a rather broad cold/dry continental
high pressure system that should be promoting modest/improving
caa across western NC at fcst initialization.  As such, moist
northwest H85 flow looks to lift mechanically along the western
slopes of the southern Apps thereby yielding a brief round of nwfs
Wednesday morning, while further south thermal fields look to warm
to yield any wintry ptypes, thus all liquid is favored.

This all rain ptype will remain persistent into Wednesday evening
before Canadian high pressure dives through the Plains into
the OH/TN valleys ushering a reinforcing cold front across the
southern/central Apps Wednesday night into Thursday.  Developing
H85 northwesterly flow will once again promote upsloping during
this time frame, with latest accums across the NC high terrain at
generally 1-1.5 inches of less.  This cold ridge of high pressure
will slide east through the remainder of the week, setting up as
classical or hybrid CAD event (Depending on which model source is
favored).  Nevertheless, both the ECMWF/GFS favor some degree of a
developing Miller B pattern as a Plains low ejects northeast into
the OH valley, spreading moisture northward atop the entrenched
CAD Friday night, while an Atl coastal low develops by Saturday
afternoon/evening.  Profiles during this Miller B setup will
initially favor wintry precip Friday evening/night into Saturday
morning before warm advection yields a ptype phase change to all
liquid by midday Saturday.  It should be noted that confidence in
ptypes is rather low at this range therefore only a rain/snow mix
was featured in the fcst, however profiles do suggest that fzra/ip
could also be in the mix.  Temperatures through the period will
start out near/above normal, falling below normal into Thursday and
thru Friday behind the reinforcing front, before finally warming
back to near normal amidst the late fcst period warm advection.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions will continue through Sunday
morning as surface high pressure moves from the Appalachians to the
Atlantic coastal waters. High, thin clouds will increase through the
period, but low level Atlantic upglide moisture will begin to invade
from the southeast during the day Sunday. Expect the low clouds to
start at low VFR, then fall to MVFR through the afternoon for all
but KAVL and KHKY. Although isentropic lift increases through the
afternoon, the lift and cloud layers appear to be too shallow for
any significant precip. Cannot rule out some sprinkles, but chance
too low to include in the TAF for now. Winds will remain or become
light S to SE overnight and early Sunday. Expect winds to back to
the ENE then NE for the SC sites during the day Sunday but remain SE
for the NC sites.

Outlook: Moisture will increase ahead of an approaching cold front
Sunday night through Monday with mainly a cold rain and associated
restrictions expected. Conditions remain unsettled through mid week
as the passing front stalls just to the south of the area and
moisture returns.

Confidence Table...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT      High 100%    High 100%    High 100%    High  80%
KGSP      High 100%    High 100%    High 100%    High  84%
KAVL      High 100%    High 100%    High 100%    High  92%
KHKY      High 100%    High 100%    High 100%    High  94%
KGMU      High 100%    High 100%    High 100%    High  84%
KAND      High 100%    High 100%    High 100%    High  96%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...HG/RWH
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...RWH
 
You don't want to see it anyway...Oh wait you have an addiction issues...LOL!


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