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Pattern December Discussion

For this first cold snap, looks to be a pretty quick turn around. Back to 60 by Monday for me.
 
Got this in the mail yesterday. I hope this isn't a sign of how winter will turn out. LOL!
a7d6eccf859b1c733e782c7b948316ab.jpg



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Well I must say I've been lost without Talkweather.  I'm glad I found the group!

How real is the threat for the 14-15 period?
 
What does all mean?
And how much for NC? Are two questions that come to mind!
 
Tarheel1 link said:
What does all mean?
And how much for NC? Are two questions that come to mind!
Click to expand...

Ha no kidding. I like the fact that we continue to see threats in the long range but it looks like the threats are starting to slowly slip away and move back out in time.
 
Storm5 link said:
[quote author=SD link=topic=2.msg591#msg591 date=1481203572]
Overnight models really gave more questions than answers.
Click to expand...
agree, the water was muddy before . Now it's just black

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[/quote]
The cold seems to be a lock, hopefully! And as long as we have the cold , even just near or around us, we could score with a wedge! Even though the specific storms are getting muddy, if the cold can lock in the US, I'm excited about the next 2-3 weeks
 
Tarheel1 link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg594#msg594 date=1481204640]
[quote author=SD link=topic=2.msg591#msg591 date=1481203572]
Overnight models really gave more questions than answers.
Click to expand...
agree, the water was muddy before . Now it's just black

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
[/quote]
The cold seems to be a lock, hopefully! And as long as we have the cold , even just near or around us, we could score with a wedge! Even though the specific storms are getting muddy, if the cold can lock in the US, I'm excited about the next 2-3 weeks
[/quote]
that's the whole issue in my opinion. the cold is a lock this week and next. but as we get towards christmas it's looking very likely we relax and warm. this is shown across all ensembles. the question then becomes how long does that last a week two weeks.

the other issue as mentioned yesterday is the PV is forecast to strengthen and head towards the pole which is what we don't want.

Lots more questions vs answers

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SD link said:
[quote author=Tarheel1 link=topic=2.msg592#msg592 date=1481203729]
What does all mean?
And how much for NC? Are two questions that come to mind!
Click to expand...

Ha no kidding. I like the fact that we continue to see threats in the long range but it looks like the threats are starting to slowly slip away and move back out in time.
[/quote]

At least we're seeing threats, and it's already showing up before the middle of December. That's a lot better than last winter. I really like our chances. Reminds me a lot of the winter of 2010-2011 when we started seeing threats show up in December. Not saying we'll get another Christmas storm, but I think seeing these threats and close calls showing up already is a good sign.
 
My take, I think the cold stays around for a while and I'm willing to bet someone special is going to be throwing snowballs or busting there ass on ice before Christmas, bank it.
 
Storm5 link said:
[quote author=Tarheel1 link=topic=2.msg595#msg595 date=1481205219]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg594#msg594 date=1481204640]
[quote author=SD link=topic=2.msg591#msg591 date=1481203572]
Overnight models really gave more questions than answers.
Click to expand...
agree, the water was muddy before . Now it's just black

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
[/quote]
The cold seems to be a lock, hopefully! And as long as we have the cold , even just near or around us, we could score with a wedge! Even though the specific storms are getting muddy, if the cold can lock in the US, I'm excited about the next 2-3 weeks
[/quote]
that's the whole issue in my opinion. the cold is a lock this week and next. but as we get towards christmas it's looking very likely we relax and warm. this is shown across all ensembles. the question then becomes how long does that last a week two weeks.

the other issue as mentioned yesterday is the PV is forecast to strengthen and head towards the pole which is what we don't want.

Lots more questions vs answers

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
[/quote]
Lots of issues, I agree, but as with patterns taking forever to materialize, sometimes on the models, on the same token, they often break them down too fast also!
 
Storm5 link said:
till 12z rolls around

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Click to expand...

I know we have talked about the pattern breaking down a bit toward Christmas but you could make a case from what we are currently seeing that instead of really relaxing we get into more of a coldmoderate ahead of a front and raincold type cycle during christmas week instead of a full fledged SE ridge.
 
whatalife link said:
[quote author=SD link=topic=2.msg597#msg597 date=1481205546]
We can always hang our hat on this
Click to expand...

Sweet! So you'll hug the GFS. What could possibly go wrong with that....LOL!


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[/quote]

I'm considering hugging the NAM for Sunday  8)
 
*confused.  I don't see much of anything other than a strong high moving out?
 
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