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Pattern December Discussion

Cad Wedge NC link said:
Well, looking at the PNA/AO/NAO indices today, you can tell that the pattern is still not written in stone. They are all over the place in the next 2 weeks. This usually happens until they can get a better handle on what's going to happen with the PV and the Pacific.
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Hard to know how thing will shape up until PNA/AO/NAO show a little more consistency. Just so many variables at play right now but I feel like we are headed in the right direction.


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Offtopic - Is everyone's smilies and posting working correctly now?
Also, avatars can be uploaded now, you shouldn't need to post urls to the avatar anymore.  Uploading the image to this site is the best way to ensure your avatar will work.
 
Starburst link said:
Offtopic - Is everyone's smilies and posting working correctly now?
Also, avatars can be uploaded now, you shouldn't need to post urls to the avatar anymore.  Uploading the image to this site is the best way to ensure your avatar will work.
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nice thanks man

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SD link said:
[quote author=GaWx link=topic=2.msg506#msg506 date=1481146007]
[quote author=SD link=topic=2.msg501#msg501 date=1481145177]
This is realistically the coldest first half of December since 2010
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1) Good point. I'll go one further and say that there is almost no way that the first half of Dec. of 2016 won't easily be the coldest for the SE US as a whole since 2010.

2) ATL is about to have its single coldest Dec. day since 2010 and its biggest negative daily anomaly at least since Feb. of 2016. That is quite significant. However, a fair number of folks really only care about wintry precip., which is normally hard to get in Dec. (especially the first half). ATL has had only ~10" of SN/IP in total over the last 100 years in the first half of Dec., meaning an average of only 0.1"/first half of Dec. or only 5% of its total seasonal average. During that time, there was a major sleetstorm in 1918, the last time there was a major ATL DEC SN or IP. So, it is good to be realistic so as not to get hopes up too high. ATL has also had a couple of significant to major ZR's in the first half of Dec., but even that doesn't pick up in historical frequency til the last week of the month.
[/quote]

The only really other cold first half of December that I can remember is 05, looking back at some data it looks like 08 was pretty chilly too. This year should fall somewhere between 2005/2010
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SD, I'm sure you remember this - devastating in Upstate SC - in fact, this storm was the impetus for the City of Greenville to start burying power lines (the city even paid for my private powerline burial)
 
drfranklin link said:
[quote author=SD link=topic=2.msg516#msg516 date=1481147340]
[quote author=GaWx link=topic=2.msg506#msg506 date=1481146007]
[quote author=SD link=topic=2.msg501#msg501 date=1481145177]
This is realistically the coldest first half of December since 2010
Click to expand...

1) Good point. I'll go one further and say that there is almost no way that the first half of Dec. of 2016 won't easily be the coldest for the SE US as a whole since 2010.

2) ATL is about to have its single coldest Dec. day since 2010 and its biggest negative daily anomaly at least since Feb. of 2016. That is quite significant. However, a fair number of folks really only care about wintry precip., which is normally hard to get in Dec. (especially the first half). ATL has had only ~10" of SN/IP in total over the last 100 years in the first half of Dec., meaning an average of only 0.1"/first half of Dec. or only 5% of its total seasonal average. During that time, there was a major sleetstorm in 1918, the last time there was a major ATL DEC SN or IP. So, it is good to be realistic so as not to get hopes up too high. ATL has also had a couple of significant to major ZR's in the first half of Dec., but even that doesn't pick up in historical frequency til the last week of the month.
[/quote]

The only really other cold first half of December that I can remember is 05, looking back at some data it looks like 08 was pretty chilly too. This year should fall somewhere between 2005/2010
[/quote]

SD, I'm sure you remember this - devastating in Upstate SC - in fact, this storm was the impetus for the City of Greenville to start burying power lines (the city even paid for my private powerline burial)
[/quote]

Here is a write-up summary on the event.  It wasn't very pretty for many.  http://www.weather.gov/gsp/15Dec2005IceReports
 
That was a rough one for sure! But the Dec 2 (?) ice storm of 2002, was worse toe the upstate, over a wider area, in my opinion
 
The 02 storm was a monster up this way 05 the precip came in too late and was fairly light.  I still have nightmares about early December 2000 where we were forecast to get a huge storm and got flurries

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Dec 02 was mother of all ice storms. I went over a week without power, many almost 2 weeks.

And oh that Dec 2000. Had every major media outlet night before forecasting foot plus totals here. Woke up to milky skies, sun peeking through. Storm, models missed the phase. To this day wghp fox 8 met van denton still talks about the massive egg in face he and everyone else got from that one. NWS included.
Can only imagine having this weatherboard up during those events. Back then the ole dialup Internet was only good for radar. The meltdowns would have been golden to go back and read. Imagine Brick going to sleep and every outlet forecasting a foot only to wake up and see sun peeking through. But the Carolina Crusher was just the opposite so things always balance out I guess.
 
Brick Tamland link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg502#msg502 date=1481145268]
euro ensembles and gfs ensembles are in agreement with a system the 16th-18th. Looks to be the first widespread threat of the season especially for Arkansas,Tennessee and NC

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How did the individual members and mean look? I know the GFS had 18 showing something here.
[/quote
Oh boy was 2010/2011 winter a good one. I remember getting snow every 2 weeks starting the 2nd week of December and not ending till the end of February. Here in north Tennessee we got a 2-3 inch snow two weeks before Christmas and then got a few inches on Christmas Day!

Edit: somehow I quoted the wrong post.
 
Re: December Discussion

just massive 500 mb changes in the 00z gfs . lo just a little different

18z gfs
e45141f99060d3ab06c41337164c8904.jpg


00z gfs
a76393bf773c1fa9553f3354012e753d.jpg

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Storm5 link said:
just massive 500 mb changes in the 00z gfs . lo just a little different

18z gfs
e45141f99060d3ab06c41337164c8904.jpg


00z gfs
a76393bf773c1fa9553f3354012e753d.jpg

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Click to expand...
Nice. LOL!


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Storm5 link said:
Amazing GFS run. Outbreak after outbreak

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If you love cold you might want to hang onto this run...LOL!


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The heavy snowpack building in the plains, and soon to be Northeast, can only help the frigid air get deeper south, with less moderation! That's the set up that can bring us our memorable cold outbreaks!
 
Holy cow gfs says welcome to the north pole America, and have a winter storm with it
 
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