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Pattern December Discussion

Well the cold is certainly there on the 12z GFS later next week...Unfortunately I cannot upload a picture without it telling me the file is too large so clearly I am a Moron! ;D
Central and Southern Ark look to have a little late week fun...if you consider ICE as fun that is...
 
Re: December Discussion

as SD pointed out yesterday. little changes at H5 have huge implications downstream

06z gfs
86b011dd1b941fb0c98fe04d7ffeccd0.jpg



12z gfs
31b0a43a4841b9ceb9ee1dc349182519.jpg

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Re: December Discussion

damn 12z gfs goes for the triple with three arctic outbreaks, each one strong than the previous

16th-18th is a window that seems to be opening more and more each day that passes

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You have to like the progression of late in most guidance.  So much better than last December
 
Wow - Very late in the run but several on here will like a serving of what the GFS is cooking!  Someone can post the Clown..
 
Supershow link said:
Well the cold is certainly there on the 12z GFS later next week...Unfortunately I cannot upload a picture without it telling me the file is too large so clearly I am a Moron! ;D
Central and Southern Ark look to have a little late week fun...if you consider ICE as fun that is...
Click to expand...

It's best to upload the image to another hosting site such as postimage.org and then link it here.
 
SD link said:
This GFS run.....
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Wild isn't it? Especially going into Christmas Eve...A major arctic blast along with wintry precip? Ha, if only! It was very interesting to look at regardless. Now we just wait fro the 18z to take it all away again. :p
 
Can't wait to see the weeklies. I'm sure Charlie is waiting with bated breath...


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whatalife link said:
Can't wait to see the weeklies. I'm sure Charlie is waiting with bated breath...


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Click to expand...
no doubt . we are due an epic weeklies run

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Brick Tamland link said:
Looks like just rain for me.
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Yep, but I would take my chances with the cold vs the SE ridge in this type of scenario and we get a lot more wintry precip
 
Storm5 link said:
[quote author=whatalife link=topic=2.msg631#msg631 date=1481216971]
Can't wait to see the weeklies. I'm sure Charlie is waiting with bated breath...


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Click to expand...
no doubt . we are due an epic weeklies run

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[/quote]

True.


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SD link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg599#msg599 date=1481205705]

till 12z rolls around

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I know we have talked about the pattern breaking down a bit toward Christmas but you could make a case from what we are currently seeing that instead of really relaxing we get into more of a coldmoderate ahead of a front and raincold type cycle during christmas week instead of a full fledged SE ridge.
[/quote]
agreed , in fact I'm starting to get on the 4-6 weeks of a general cold pattern before it all goes to hell late January. Obviously not sustained cold for 4-6 weeks. but enough of a cold pattern to give us chances vs having to wait on a pattern shuffle. I was sold on a pattern breakdown before the new year, I have doubts now

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Re: December Discussion

SD link said:
[quote author=Brick Tamland link=topic=2.msg636#msg636 date=1481217271]
Looks like just rain for me.
Click to expand...

Yep, but I would take my chances with the cold vs the SE ridge in this type of scenario and we get a lot more wintry precip
[/quote]
bingo . of course, it's just a gfs op run so the obvious rules apply . but a stalled arctic front setting a battle ground for overrunning wintry precip is far more likely in this type of pattern vs a full blown miller A . I'd take overrunning over a miller all day

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