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WeatherLC
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I was thinking that most were calling for a dry near average extended term this year?
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Pattern December Discussion
- Thread starter Storm5
- Start date
Snowman63
Member
It would help if we could get a +PNA, -AO, and -NAO combination leading in to January. Looks like the indices are not lining up the way we want them right now.
It does appear the PNA wants to go positive towards the end of the month.
IMO, the main driver is the AO... It wants to spike positive which we don't want but looks like it wants to go negative later in the month.
A little blocking would also help...we want to lock in the cold and drive the LP's further south.
Regardless of the seasonal forecasts we see every year, January and February will always be our best winter months just based on climatology. The bottom line is Winter has just begun with a lot of model watching to go. ;D
It does appear the PNA wants to go positive towards the end of the month.
IMO, the main driver is the AO... It wants to spike positive which we don't want but looks like it wants to go negative later in the month.
A little blocking would also help...we want to lock in the cold and drive the LP's further south.
Regardless of the seasonal forecasts we see every year, January and February will always be our best winter months just based on climatology. The bottom line is Winter has just begun with a lot of model watching to go. ;D
Storm5
Member
Re: December Discussion
I'm still 100 percent on a front loaded winter and still believe our best chances are between now and the 3rd week of January . I'm all in on February being AN. That does not mean we won't have a chance or two along the way. but IMO the month will average AN
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no despair here. just amazing that it looks like we waste such an amazingly cold air mass, cause once the PV consolidates and moves towards the pole the air in canada will modify and I doubt we see temps up there like we are gonna see over the coming weeks -50's.ATLWxFan link said:
I'm still 100 percent on a front loaded winter and still believe our best chances are between now and the 3rd week of January . I'm all in on February being AN. That does not mean we won't have a chance or two along the way. but IMO the month will average AN
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In attempt to spread a little cheer on here this AM after disappointing overnight runs - I give you the updated 45 day CFSv2 Snowfall Clown... most of us would take the second map on here:
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Re: December Discussion
ATL over the last hundred years has averaged only 0.3" of SN/IP in Dec (0.1" 1st half and 0.2" 2nd half). That is only ~15% of its average seasonal total of ~2". Only 18 of the last 100 ATL Decembers have had measurable SN/IP. In contrast, 0.8" has fallen on average in Jan over the last 100 years with 45 of them having had measurable. In Feb, 0.4" avg/30 of them had measurable. Mar: 0.4" avg/15 of them. Note that most of this is based on the airport, which is south of town. A few of the years are based on downtown. The northside is obviously higher in freq/amts though I have no hard stats. My guess would be that the northside gets ~3"/year on avg. Regardless, this gives one the idea about Dec being relatively quiet.
Aside: Back in the late 1800's/early 1900's, Feb was a big SN/IP month with close to 1.5"/month!! Jan was near 1.4". Dec was near 0.7". (Mar was only near 0.1".). So, seasonal SN/IP was ~3.8" or about double the subsequent 100 years' rate! One reason: it was colder then on average, esp. in Feb. Also, the station was in the city, not south of town.
Looking at history, ZR's don't pick up there too much in frequency til the last week of Dec. I will reiterate that due to us being in neutral negative ENSO that this winter's chances for a major ZR or IP are ~50%, which is about 3 times the chance for other winters. Most major ZR's there have occurred between late Dec and early Feb.
ATLWxFan link said:
ATL over the last hundred years has averaged only 0.3" of SN/IP in Dec (0.1" 1st half and 0.2" 2nd half). That is only ~15% of its average seasonal total of ~2". Only 18 of the last 100 ATL Decembers have had measurable SN/IP. In contrast, 0.8" has fallen on average in Jan over the last 100 years with 45 of them having had measurable. In Feb, 0.4" avg/30 of them had measurable. Mar: 0.4" avg/15 of them. Note that most of this is based on the airport, which is south of town. A few of the years are based on downtown. The northside is obviously higher in freq/amts though I have no hard stats. My guess would be that the northside gets ~3"/year on avg. Regardless, this gives one the idea about Dec being relatively quiet.
Aside: Back in the late 1800's/early 1900's, Feb was a big SN/IP month with close to 1.5"/month!! Jan was near 1.4". Dec was near 0.7". (Mar was only near 0.1".). So, seasonal SN/IP was ~3.8" or about double the subsequent 100 years' rate! One reason: it was colder then on average, esp. in Feb. Also, the station was in the city, not south of town.
Looking at history, ZR's don't pick up there too much in frequency til the last week of Dec. I will reiterate that due to us being in neutral negative ENSO that this winter's chances for a major ZR or IP are ~50%, which is about 3 times the chance for other winters. Most major ZR's there have occurred between late Dec and early Feb.
What happens over Europe into Scandinavia over the next 1-2 weeks may have big implications as to where we go in January. Certainly looks like we are going to get a nice Scandy high in place soon and if we can retrograde toward greenland in time we may see the process of forming a -NAO for the first half of January much like the evolution of the Euro weeklies.
VegasEagle
Member
Number 2 for the win...... CHECK PLEASE!Supershow link said:In attempt to spread a little cheer on here this AM after disappointing overnight runs - I give you the updated 45 day CFSv2 Snowfall Clown... most of us would take the second map on here:
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:snowflake: :snowman:
Storm5
Member
so it looks like we really had two waves to watch . the first one on Saturday mainly for CAD regions and a second wave develops along the front Sunday into Monday back west. just depends on how far SE the front can push. SD mentioned yesterday about Arkansas and west tenn m those areas would do well with the second wave IF the front makes enough progress
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whatalife
Moderator
Storm5 link said:
Big if right now...
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Storm5
Member
whatalife link said:
Big if right now...
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[/quote]
your avatar has it going on
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whatalife
Moderator
Storm5 link said:
Big if right now...
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[/quote]
your avatar has it going on
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[/quote]
My dream girl...HAHA! Hot like last December.
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Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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There's always a lot of ifs and butts, when it comes to wintry precip in the south!
Storm5
Member
gfs does not want to play
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Storm5
Member
12z gfs ..... lol horrible
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whatalife
Moderator
Storm5 link said:12z gfs ..... lol horrible
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A December to remember!
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Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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whatalife link said:[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg1153#msg1153 date=1481388382]
12z gfs ..... lol horrible
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A December to remember!
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[/quote]
Yeah, last December!
Storm5
Member
Re: December Discussion
12z cmc is an ice storm in the cad regions
then tries to pop another system next Monday but it's crushed
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12z cmc is an ice storm in the cad regions
then tries to pop another system next Monday but it's crushed
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Snowflowxxl
Member
It was fun while it lasted lol
Storm5
Member
lol 12z gfs day 10
12z cmc day 10
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12z cmc day 10
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N
NorthGaWinter
Guest
That's a damn good look on the CMC storm!
whatalife
Moderator
Storm5 link said:lol 12z gfs day 10
12z cmc day 10
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I'm going w/CMC! I refuse to go with a US model.
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Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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The 1041 high in New England on the CMC looks good! We have to throw out that GFS run, it's just ludicrous!
Storm5
Member
gefs has two systems in the 16th-21st period. but seeing how touchy the models and ensembles are , it's not saying much
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Storm5
Member
lol of course JB is using the best wennie line there is about the models not handling the cold correctly lol
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I'll probably start a sunspot minimum thread soon. Currently, the sun has just gone back to spotless and we may be about to have the 1st long string of spotless in awhile based on the other side also being very quiet. Solar flux is very low. If the daily falls to below 70, it would be the 1st time since June of 2010, which was 1.5 years after the last cyclical minimum.
We're now approaching what should be very quiet years assuming those projections for the quietest solar minimum in ~200 years were to materialize. The earliest the minimum should be would be near 1/1/20. However, deeply quiet cycles, as occurred during Dalton min of early 1800's, tend to be longer. So, if we get something similar, we could be looking at the next cycle min not being til 2021 or even as late as early 2022.
For grand solar min weenies, this is your time coming up! Watch as the quietness of 2017 should give us great hints as to how deep it will get. As quiet as 2017 is expected to be, the subsequent 4+ years should be even that much quieter.
Link to latest sun pic: http://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_1024_HMIIF.jpg
We're now approaching what should be very quiet years assuming those projections for the quietest solar minimum in ~200 years were to materialize. The earliest the minimum should be would be near 1/1/20. However, deeply quiet cycles, as occurred during Dalton min of early 1800's, tend to be longer. So, if we get something similar, we could be looking at the next cycle min not being til 2021 or even as late as early 2022.
For grand solar min weenies, this is your time coming up! Watch as the quietness of 2017 should give us great hints as to how deep it will get. As quiet as 2017 is expected to be, the subsequent 4+ years should be even that much quieter.
Link to latest sun pic: http://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_1024_HMIIF.jpg
whatalife
Moderator
Oh good grief!Storm5 link said:lol of course JB is using the best wennie line there is about the models not handling the cold correctly lol
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Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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Oh good grief!whatalife link said:[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg1163#msg1163 date=1481392778]
lol of course JB is using the best wennie line there is about the models not handling the cold correctly lol
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[/quote]
It's lonely in the bathtub!!
Storm5
Member
the 12z Canadian ensembles center the cold further east vs the gefs
12z Canadian ensembles
12z gefs
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12z Canadian ensembles
12z gefs
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The trend toward the SER taking back over as we head toward late month is getting more evident on ensemble model consensus (ignoring the unreliable CMC op). The Euro week #3 of this past run suggested a mild week. This would be like the dominant pattern of a typical La Niña (mild SE while cold NW to north central) though I think we're looking at neutral negative ENSO as 3.4 seems to have bottomed.
As I have said, Dec temps are somewhat of an indicator of how Jan is likely to be. The best chances at a cold (mild) SE Jan are when Dec is also cold (mild) in the SE. So, for those rooting for the best chance at a cold Jan, your best bet would be if Dec ends up cold though the correlation is only partial.
The MJO forecast from the EPS remains in the relatively favorable low amp though today's fcast is hinting it to be more to the right than yesterday. The coldest MJO overall is low amp on the left.
As I have said, Dec temps are somewhat of an indicator of how Jan is likely to be. The best chances at a cold (mild) SE Jan are when Dec is also cold (mild) in the SE. So, for those rooting for the best chance at a cold Jan, your best bet would be if Dec ends up cold though the correlation is only partial.
The MJO forecast from the EPS remains in the relatively favorable low amp though today's fcast is hinting it to be more to the right than yesterday. The coldest MJO overall is low amp on the left.
Storm5
Member
12z euro has a nice cad event next weekend
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whatalife
Moderator
Storm5 link said:
Looks similar to 12z CMC. Nice cad for parts of NC/SC.
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Storm5
Member
whatalife link said:
Looks similar to 12z CMC. Nice cad for parts of NC/SC.
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[/quote]
yes it's a front end type event that goes to rain but your right it's similar to the cmc
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Storm5
Member
Re: December Discussion
gfs looks out to lunch. 12z euro much more in line with the 12z Canadian ensembles and 2z cmc
12z euro week from monday
12z cmc
12z gfs
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gfs looks out to lunch. 12z euro much more in line with the 12z Canadian ensembles and 2z cmc
12z euro week from monday
12z cmc
12z gfs
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NorthGaWinter
Guest
Let's see if that energy south of cali can make its way east
Storm5
Member
I think it's gonna get stuck this run but I bet the eps will look niceNorthGaWinter link said:
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whatalife
Moderator
NorthGaWinter link said:
Not going to make it out this run...
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Storm5
Member
whatalife link said:
Not going to make it out this run...
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[/quote]
nope but it's a much better run vs the disaster gfs
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whatalife
Moderator
Storm5 link said:
Not going to make it out this run...
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[/quote]
nope but it's a much better run vs the disaster gfs
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Wish we could have played that out another 4 or 5 days...LOL!
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Storm5
Member
whatalife link said:
Not going to make it out this run...
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[/quote]
nope but it's a much better run vs the disaster gfs
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[/quote]
Wish we could have played that out another 4 or 5 days...LOL!
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[/quote]
that's what the eps is for ......fantasy
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whatalife
Moderator
Storm5 link said:
Not going to make it out this run...
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[/quote]
nope but it's a much better run vs the disaster gfs
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[/quote]
Wish we could have played that out another 4 or 5 days...LOL!
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[/quote]
that's what the eps is for ......fantasy
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[/quote]
Yep.
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