Pattern December Discussion

[Weatherlover92]

At least we're talking about cold this Dec vs. 80° weather for most of last Dec.


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Exactly, were in a much better position now (pattern wise) in December 2016 than we were in December 2015. I like seeing there's still potential storm systems in the LR to bring more drought relief than trying to get worked up about a hypothetical winter storm. Realistically, I don't expect anyone south of TN/NC to see any chance of wintry weather until the new year rolls in.

 

[Storm5]

18z gefs has 10 members that bring snow to various parts of the southeast

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[$alt]

18z gefs has 10 members that bring snow to various parts of the southeast

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To add to this, there are a few that get it into the deeper parts of the South.  The mean isn't even horrible!  Good signs moving forward!

 

[Weatherlover92]

00z GFS still brings the COLD in the LR.

 

[$alt]

The clipper deal that gave upper parts of the South of course doesn't look too great on the 00z.  It's cold by that time for sure.. which I guess we can be happy about.

 

[accu35]

OH MY GFS, COLD, WINTER STORM 

 

[Cad Wedge NC]

OH MY GFS, COLD, WINTER STORM

Wouldn't take much to get a miller-A storm out of that one. Right now it's showing a bad ice storm for the damming zones with temps in the 20's to start.

 

[SD]

I'm a little surprised at the lack of chatter about the overnight runs. The euro...wow

 

[SimeonNC]

I'm a little surprised at the lack of chatter about the overnight runs. The euro...wow

I don't have access to snow maps on the Euro, do they look good for our region?

 

[SD]

[quote author=SD link=topic=2.msg416#msg416 date=1481115533]
I'm a little surprised at the lack of chatter about the overnight runs. The euro...wow

I don't have access to snow maps on the Euro, do they look good for our region?
[/quote]

It has some light snow for the northern half of NC around day 9, looks like it might be too warm down your way. The overall pattern by day 10 looks decent and we aren't seeing the western trough building. The ensemble mean has about a half inch or so of snow for a good part of NC

 

[accu35]

[quote author=SimeonNC link=topic=2.msg417#msg417 date=1481116273]
[quote author=SD link=topic=2.msg416#msg416 date=1481115533]
I'm a little surprised at the lack of chatter about the overnight runs. The euro...wow

I don't have access to snow maps on the Euro, do they look good for our region?
[/quote]

It has some light snow for the northern half of NC around day 9, looks like it might be too warm down your way. The overall pattern by day 10 looks decent and we aren't seeing the western trough building. The ensemble mean has about a half inch or so of snow for a good part of NC
[/quote] what about that ice storm lol

 

[accu35]

Shane just for fun, can you post the ice storm map? I'm board lol

 

[Storm5]

Re: December Discussion

Shane just for fun, can you post the ice storm map? I'm board lol

quickly changes to rain for most outside of CAD areas. Meh , not that exciting . this isn't a good look for a winter storm in the SE outside of CAD areas

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[SD]

Re: December Discussion

1044 over Maine....that wedge would be driving deep into Ga/Al good lord

 

[Storm5]

1044 over Maine....that wedge would be driving deep into Ga/Al good lord

verification chance at this lead.....10 percent

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[Storm5]

I'm a little surprised at the lack of chatter about the overnight runs. The euro...wow

Yeah looked interesting late in the period. I've said it for a while now if we have a chance next week it favors Arkansas , Tennessee and NC

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[SD]

[quote author=SD link=topic=2.msg423#msg423 date=1481122601]

1044 over Maine....that wedge would be driving deep into Ga/Al good lord

verification chance at this lead.....10 percent

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[/quote]

So your saying theres a chance?

 

[Storm5]

[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg424#msg424 date=1481122730]
[quote author=SD link=topic=2.msg423#msg423 date=1481122601]

1044 over Maine....that wedge would be driving deep into Ga/Al good lord

verification chance at this lead.....10 percent

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[/quote]

So your saying theres a chance?
[/quote]
Haha,  first one of the year. I always wonder who is gonna day that for the first time . you win

Seriously I'd be fairly excited if I lived in Tenn and NC at least for having a chance at something wintry in the next 10 days


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[ATLwxfan]

In light of this morning's GFS...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/12/06/heres-why-computer-models-ten-days-into-the-future-cannot-be-trusted/


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[Storm5]

Re: December Discussion

12z gfs -winter storm threat for NC next Thursday

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