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Pattern December Discussion

Storm5 link said:
little CAD event next Saturday on the 00z gfs

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That'd likely be ice for most in the CAD areas before turning over to rain as the daylight comes out.  850s bad for all of NC even.  Basically, the 1040 High moves away and we here in the CAD areas know how long those wedges tend to stick around longer than forecast. 

In other words, a bit ominous.  BUT if the 1040 stays strong in prime areas, snowfall is not out of the question into parts of NC and SC, maybe even GA.
 
You're right. I was just saying that to my weather friend
 
good news is the epo is going nuts and trying to bridge with the Scandinavian ridge

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I may be behind but that energy in south Texas/ Mexico may make some noise
 
Re: December Discussion

gfs is really crapping on the pacific pattern. this run is about to hit the dumpster

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Remember, we now have a faster/better updating GFS-Para that should run also tonight.  Earlier, it's solutions were wildly different from it's OP counter-part, lets see what it "wants to do" with the 14-18th time-frame.
 
Chistmas looks active once again... but it's fantasy range... hope we aren't playing this game all
Winter
 
NorthGaWinter link said:
Chistmas looks active once again... but it's fantasy range... hope we aren't playing this game all
Winter
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You see that 1057mb high dropping in?  Whew.  Looking like WW3 is about to explode (weather-wise) in future frames.
 
LOLOL. That strong of a high and only Tennessee is getting winter precip.
 
Canadian coming in with a nice little snow into parts of NC, then an ice storm brewing out in AR, MS, snows in TN.
 
Then last frame of Canadian brings the ice/mix into GA (down to at least ATL) & upstate SC. 850's again warm with HP pulling away.
 
Canadian has and ice storm hitting the southeast and NGA at the end of its run. But probably turns to rain quickly as the high is moving off to the Atlantic. Need a -NAO
 
I think I just fainted at the end of the GFS out here....  :eek: this is a Texas special lol

and yes I totally registered because of that lmao
 
Brent link said:
I think I just fainted at the end of the GFS out here....  :eek: this is a Texas special lol

and yes I totally registered because of that lmao
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Memphis gets smashed.
 
Brent link said:
I think I just fainted at the end of the GFS out here....  :eek: this is a Texas special lol

and yes I totally registered because of that lmao
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Welcome to the forum ! I haven't seen any maps. How much snow does it show for Texas ?
 
On the meteogram a half inch of QPF with temperatures in the teens and 20s...

It has highs in the teens on Christmas Eve lol
 
facepalm ...the 00z gefs 100 percents supports the op with dumping the trough in the west

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Brent link said:
I think I just fainted at the end of the GFS out here....  :eek: this is a Texas special lol

and yes I totally registered because of that lmao
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you would have a few off days. your actually in a great spot

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Several members have snow through 10 days. Don't give up storm
 
Storm5 link said:
[quote author=Brent link=topic=2.msg794#msg794 date=1481260136]
I think I just fainted at the end of the GFS out here....  :eek: this is a Texas special lol

and yes I totally registered because of that lmao
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you would have a few off days. your actually in a great spot

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[/quote]

yeah there's been a lot of hype about this winter here even when it was still record highs out. Finally seeing some real signs of it.

Oh and I could totally go for an extended Christmas vacation from work lol
 
I don't care what the averages show. I think Dallas gets more snow than Atlanta on average. The further west you go in the south, the better.
 
;)That Artic Blast is so close to us, ok this is the second run today that sucks, so we shuffel back tomorrow. That cold has to eventually move east, how strong dont know. I still say we have time with that system next week to improve if that HP stays sttong. Onset ice is very possible at this point, gfs is very strong of keeping this very " Vodka Cold" air around.
 
accu35 link said:
;)That Artic Blast is so close to us, ok this is the second run today that sucks, so we shuffel back tomorrow. That cold has to eventually move east, how strong dont know. I still say we have time with that system next week to improve if that HP stays sttong. Onset ice is very possible at this point, gfs is very strong of keeping this very " Vodka Cold" air around.
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I'm sure it will move so slow that by the time it gets here it will be seasonal.
 
SoutheastRidge link said:
I don't care what the averages show. I think Dallas gets more snow than Atlanta on average. The further west you go in the south, the better.
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http://www.weather.gov/fwd/dmosnow

Look at all the years there was a "trace" of snow here which last year's 5 flakes equaled a trace so...

although since 2000 or so it has been unusually snowy here. But look at the 1990's...
 
Storm5 link said:
facepalm ...the 00z gefs 100 percents supports the op with dumping the trough in the west

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It's ok, the other day when the GFS had 60 degree below average temps in the plains, it had complete ensemble support and we all new that wasn't going to happen!
 
0z euro is 30 degrees cooler for next Saturday vs the 12z run yesterday. Lol

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SD link said:
0z euro is 30 degrees cooler for next Saturday vs the 12z run yesterday. Lol

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Let's hope the air is so cold that's coming, the models can't handle those kind of numbers and data, so there are the wild swings, until it locks on the cold/snowy south pattern
 
SD link said:
0z euro is 30 degrees cooler for next Saturday vs the 12z run yesterday. Lol

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Of course, the models are world's apart from each other, and even from themselves from one run to the next. They just don't do winter well here past 5 days, and if there is a chance of a winter storm, even 3 days off is a stretch. Heck, sometimes 12 hours out they are wrong.
 
One thing I don't get is some feeling we need the cold locked in place for a while to get a good storm. I don't think we need a solid week of below freezing for highs to get a good winter storm. That kind of cold is usually transient here. There's been plenty of times when we've been above normal for temps a week before getting a good winter storm. I don't think the cold has to be locked in place that long for us to get something good.
 
you are rihht brick.this idea of locked cold gets brought up every year and its ridiculous.  we don't need to lock cold in. some of the biggest se storms have come on the front end or tail end of a pattern change . I can't remember a winter storm for my area where we had snow or ice and the cold stayed around for a while . I'd does benefit us to keep the cold on our side of globe. makes things so much easier.

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Yeah, I don't ever recall getting a winter storm here when it has been really cold for a while before the storm hit. Usually the temps cold enough for a storm come for 2 or 3 days at most. Anytime we've had a period longer than a few days with highs below freezing it's just cold and dry. I think the week before the Carolina Crusher there was a day it hit 70. So, I just don't get this idea we have to have sustained cold for a good storm here.
 
00z gfs
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00z gfs para
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