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Pattern December Discussion

See if this works:
gfs_6hr_snow_acc_conus2_65.png
 
NorthGaWinter link said:
Oh Canada
Click to expand...
exactly what's being discussed . nice little overrunning .

Of course it's the Canadian and their military blows, just like their op model

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Supershow link said:
See if this works:
Click to expand...

This clown map shows several inches of snow from just north of Brunswick, GA up along the coast to near Charleston. Whereas that would be awesome, that's not accurate as per the precip./850 mb maps. So, I have to question the accuracy of this clown.
 
SD link said:
[quote author=Brick Tamland link=topic=2.msg636#msg636 date=1481217271]
Looks like just rain for me.
Click to expand...

Yep, but I would take my chances with the cold vs the SE ridge in this type of scenario and we get a lot more wintry precip
[/quote]

I do like the number of chances showing up, and the shot we have at something the last half of the month with all these threats showing up. No guarantees, but it''s like the difference in Curry having the ball to take a last second three to win the game versus me. He might miss, but he has a much better shot at hitting it than me, and looks like Curry is going to have the ball.
 
Im fairly excited for the GEFS and Euro today. This usually starts the downward spiral to fail
 
GaWx link said:
[quote author=Supershow link=topic=2.msg643#msg643 date=1481217623]
See if this works:
Click to expand...

This clown map shows several inches of snow from just north of Brunswick, GA up along the coast to near Charleston. Whereas that would be awesome, that's not accurate as per the precip./850 mb maps. So, I have to question the accuracy of this clown.
[/quote]

Can't have a good weather forum discussion without a good Clown... 8)
 
Re: December Discussion

SD link said:
Im fairly excited for the GEFS and Euro today. This usually starts the downward spiral to fail
Click to expand...
12z gefs is about like the last 24 hours of gefs runs. Lots of potential . Multiple blasts of cold and many systems. supportive of the H5 pattern on the op
6de4bfd6cf62665661fccce76c93d1ae.jpg


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SoutheastRidge link said:
Dang we can't even score on the clown map. Looks good for the Ohio Valley and Northeast though !
Click to expand...
why would you want to score with a clown map? who cares, it's the overall pattern that matters

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Storm5 link said:
[quote author=SoutheastRidge link=topic=2.msg653#msg653 date=1481218877]
Dang we can't even score on the clown map. Looks good for the Ohio Valley and Northeast though !
Click to expand...
why would you want to score with a clown map? who cares, it's the overall pattern that matters

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[/quote]

He's lost in translation...


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Storm5 link said:
[quote author=NorthGaWinter link=topic=2.msg645#msg645 date=1481217757]
Oh Canada
Click to expand...
exactly what's being discussed . nice little overrunning .

Of course it's the Canadian and their military blows, just like their op model

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[/quote]
The CMC scored some victories in the last couple of years, especially in CAD events!
 
Storm5 link said:
agreed , in fact I'm starting to get on the 4-6 weeks of a general cold pattern before it all goes to hell late January. Obviously not sustained cold for 4-6 weeks. but enough of a cold pattern to give us chances vs having to wait on a pattern shuffle. I was sold on a pattern breakdown before the new year, I have doubts now
Click to expand...

The current and forecasted MJO is in full agreement with cold as it is and will continue to be within the circle for awhile per the EPS. Within or just outside the circle (i.e., low amplitude), especially on the left side, is what one wants to see for the best shot at a sustained cold pattern as it has a better correlation to SE US cold than being well outside the circle:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_51m_full.gif


Historic examples of low amplitude MJO (mainly either inside or just outside the circle) when the SE was cold:

Jan 1977 (red line): http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/archive/MJO_phase/197701.phase.90days.gif

Jan 1982  (red line): http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/archive/MJO_phase/198201.phase.90days.gif

Dec 1983 (blue line): http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/archive/MJO_phase/198310.phase.90days.gif

Early Jan of 1988  (red line): http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/archive/MJO_phase/198801.phase.90days.gif

Dec of 1989 (blue line): http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/archive/MJO_phase/198910.phase.90days.gif

Dec of 2000 (blue line): http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/archive/MJO_phase/200010.phase.90days.gif

Jan of 2010 (red line): http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/archive/MJO_phase/201001.phase.90days.gif

Dec of 2010 (blue line): http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/archive/MJO_phase/201010.phase.90days.gif

Jan of 2014 (red line): http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/archive/MJO_phase/201401.phase.90days.gif
 
Re: December Discussion

12z euro keeps the PV further north next week vs the gfs

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Weatherlover92 link said:
[quote author=Bones link=topic=2.msg629#msg629 date=1481216795]
Maps Maps Maps Please !!!
Click to expand...

First Arctic Blast
jPAQPd6.png


Here is 12z Euro at same time:
 
1031 HP over Iowa on Euro vs 1038HP over SW Kansas on GPS for first action of next week
 
gonna be a fun 12z euro finish with energy coming out of the rockies

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Why did Fox News just say "could be the first polar vortex of the season".  Man, here we go again.
 
Storm5 link said:
gonna be a fun 12z euro finish with energy coming out of the rockies

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Click to expand...
Looks to me like more of a thunderstorm threat towards the end - 60's to Nashville??? Meh...cold air chasing left over moisture at end
 
Re: December Discussion

not a bad run at all nice epo and tries to bridge over the top which would be so sweet . 
69a6e42e40d4665fc959dde66794eef5.jpg


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Supershow link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg671#msg671 date=1481222970]
gonna be a fun 12z euro finish with energy coming out of the rockies

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Click to expand...
Looks to me like more of a thunderstorm threat towards the end - 60's to Nashville??? Meh...cold air chasing left over moisture at end

[/quote]
I'm worried about what type of pattern sets up more so than what an op run spits out at the surface

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Storm5 link said:
[quote author=Supershow link=topic=2.msg673#msg673 date=1481223480]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg671#msg671 date=1481222970]
gonna be a fun 12z euro finish with energy coming out of the rockies

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Looks to me like more of a thunderstorm threat towards the end - 60's to Nashville??? Meh...cold air chasing left over moisture at end

[/quote]
I'm worried about what type of pattern sets up more so than what an op run spits out at the surface

Couldn't agree more - You and other long timers on here are much more adept at presenting the "science" of why things are than I could ever hope too.  I am doing good just to paste a thumbnail image of what I perceive people like to see ;D

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[/quote]
 
SD link said:
Euro is 74 next Saturday....golf time!
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I would love it to be that warm next weekend honestly. I've got lots of stuff to do outside

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Re: December Discussion

Supershow link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg675#msg675 date=1481224183]
[quote author=Supershow link=topic=2.msg673#msg673 date=1481223480]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg671#msg671 date=1481222970]
gonna be a fun 12z euro finish with energy coming out of the rockies

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Looks to me like more of a thunderstorm threat towards the end - 60's to Nashville??? Meh...cold air chasing left over moisture at end

[/quote]
I'm worried about what type of pattern sets up more so than what an op run spits out at the surface

Couldn't agree more - You and other long timers on here are much more adept at presenting the "science" of why things are than I could ever hope too.  I am doing good just to paste a thumbnail image of what I perceive people like to see ;D

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[/quote]
[/quote]
your good a good job of that. can you right click the image to blow it up? download tapatalk , it's so easy to upload images with

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Storm5 link said:
[quote author=SD link=topic=2.msg678#msg678 date=1481224657]
Euro is 74 next Saturday....golf time!
Click to expand...
I would love it to be that warm next weekend honestly. I've got lots of stuff to do outside

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[/quote]

Stop wearing shorts and its not cold
 
bigstick10 link said:
[quote author=SD link=topic=2.msg678#msg678 date=1481224657]
Euro is 74 next Saturday....golf time!
Click to expand...

Oh why not, wouldn't be surprised.  Although I think the Euro might be out to lunch.
[/quote]

I actually agree a little bit. At 240 on the 0z run there was a low near Chicago at 240 on the 12z run its near Denver..
 
GainesvilleWX link said:
[quote author=Brick Tamland link=topic=2.msg663#msg663 date=1481220820]
Wow, 9 and 14 please!

5849a0800cb82_ScreenShot2016-12-08at1_02_04PM.png.c558f642bfcd050fba8ceb1a43bb20c6.png
Click to expand...
Those last images seem to have a CAD signature.


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[/quote]

That's what I was thinking as well when looking at that. Either way it's nice to see so early in the season.
 
Anyone care to explain why someone might be inclined to get excited looking at the picture of the 12z Euro at 24 hours from now (some blue color) vs the forecast Euro at 240 hours (lots of green color)?


 
Supershow link said:
Anyone care to explain why someone might be inclined to get excited looking at the picture of the 12z Euro at 24 hours from now (some blue color) vs the forecast Euro at 240 hours (lots of green color)?
Click to expand...

These are showing the strat pv at 50mb. It looks like its being split with a lobe setting up over the US which should correspond to the troposphere following suit at some point. Its also nice to see as the Euro for a time was showing the strat PV strengthening and contracting to the pole
 
SD link said:
[quote author=Supershow link=topic=2.msg693#msg693 date=1481227565]
Anyone care to explain why someone might be inclined to get excited looking at the picture of the 12z Euro at 24 hours from now (some blue color) vs the forecast Euro at 240 hours (lots of green color)?
Click to expand...

These are showing the strat pv at 50mb. It looks like its being split with a lobe setting up over the US which should correspond to the troposphere following suit at some point. Its also nice to see as the Euro for a time was showing the strat PV strengthening and contracting to the pole
[/quote]
Thanks for the explanation SD. IF this comes to fruition I would think it would be another piece available to facilitate our Winter chances down the line.


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