Pattern December Discussion

[Storm5]

Gotta give it to DT (seems he's getting better haha) .. he has a great video up and it's really helpful to those that don't quite understand different 500mb features and the potential pattern change that may come mid-month.  Around 5 min in, he gets into it. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9o0Dyx90yKA

I link this because 500mb is what matters.  Not the "systems and rain/snow lines" on the pretty maps.. as Storm has been saying.

nice thanks for posting this. good ole DT

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[Storm5]

Euro is blah

euro is fine. even setting up another arctic blast around day ten like the gfs

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[$alt]

At least if something could get going, it wouldn't be sent to Cuba from just looking at that anomaly map.  Can't view heights right now.

 

[accu35]

If mid month Cold verify Christmas will feel great

 

[whatalife]

What an awful EPS run. I look forward to wearing shorts sleeves, shorts, and flip-flops for Christmas! RRR


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[accu35]

What an awful EPS run. I look forward to wearing shorts sleeves, shorts, and flip-flops for Christmas! RRR


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yeah then tomorrow it will say something different lol

 

[Storm5]

Re: December Discussion

What an awful EPS run. I look forward to wearing shorts sleeves, shorts, and flip-flops for Christmas! RRR


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Yeah it was bad 

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[SoutheastRidge]

Welp, I think i'm officially done with winter. It was nice while it lasted. 

 

[Storm5]

Re: December Discussion

the 12z eps wasn't completely horribpe. still has temps near normal in the LR  but it's amazing how much the eps flipped

As SD pointed out, with the PV so close we can still get below normal temps with above normal heights

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[GaWx]

Because the 0Z EPS 11-15 looked so good, I'm guessing that today's Euro weeklies will also look pretty good since they're based on 0Z.

 

[Storm5]

Because the 0Z EPS 11-15 looked so good, I'm guessing that today's Euro weeklies will also look pretty good since they're based on 0Z.

I agree Larry , wouldn't be surprised if we get a  wennie run 

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[NorthGaWinter]

So many cutters on the 18z

 

[$alt]

When have the weeklies been so great?  Larry has followed them pretty closely, maybe he can shed some light before you all start jumping off the cliff too early!

 

[Storm5]

When have the weeklies been so great?  Larry has followed them pretty closely, maybe he can shed some light before you all start jumping off the cliff too early!

no one is cliff jumping . The weeklies have never been great IMO. Larry might have some stats

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[GaWx]

I think there may be some confusion between Euro weeklies, which go out many weeks as an extension of the cold 0Z EPS, which didn't cause cliff jumping, and the mild 12Z EPS, which may have done that for some. I know Storm5 knows the difference.

 

[whatalife]

Oh those weeklies


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[$alt]

Wondering if we are starting to see too much "climo" in modeling these days.  I guess it has to be done to prevent ridiculous solutions though.

 

[accu35]

Gfs shuffling as always but still shows the Arctic air in the lower 48 in some fashion way. Maybe we can see a bleed to the east little more in due time. WAY to early for anyone to cliff jump, this first week of Dec, long ways to go. To get a southeast winter storm in Dec is a bonus. 8)

 

[accu35]

[quote author=accu35 link=topic=2.msg289#msg289 date=1480982553]
Gfs shuffling as always but still shows the Arctic air in the lower 48 in some fashion way. Maybe we can see a bleed to the east little more in due time. WAY to early for anyone to cliff jump, this first week of Dec, long ways to go. To get a southeast winter storm in Dec is a bonus. 8)

Totally agree, but just do not want to get back in the dry warm pattern for any extended period of time. Also, is their suppose to be another "wave" of rain after this batch, it is booking out of here fast?????
[/quote] looks like we stay normal wet this month, hard to say with gfs lol

 

[GaWx]

Rereading the posts from Starburst and Storm5, I don't have any stats, but I consider the Euro weeklies as pretty unreliable general guidance for forecasting beyond two weeks out though it is an extension of the EPS, the least inaccurate model for forecasting week 2. So, I think it has some value but fairly minimal, especially as regards details for any area. Forecasting week by week for weeks 3+ is still dicey at best even in this day and age. We often still struggle even with week 2!

Now when comparing the Euro weeklies to Judah Cohen's SAI stuff as regards the better guidance, I'd choose the Euro weeklies lol because he has done absolutely dreadful since I started following him! I read that he's calling for another cold winter for much of the E US. He may or may not get it right but a blind squirrel can find its nut. Is he just another JB?