Good grief
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Pattern December Discussion
- Thread starter Storm5
- Start date
GaWx link said:
1) Good point. I'll go one further and say that there is almost no way that the first half of Dec. of 2016 won't easily be the coldest for the SE US as a whole since 2010.
2) ATL is about to have its single coldest Dec. day since 2010 and its biggest negative daily anomaly at least since Feb. of 2016. That is quite significant. However, a fair number of folks really only care about wintry precip., which is normally hard to get in Dec. (especially the first half). ATL has had only ~10" of SN/IP in total over the last 100 years in the first half of Dec., meaning an average of only 0.1"/first half of Dec. or only 5% of its total seasonal average. During that time, there was a major sleetstorm in 1918, the last time there was a major ATL DEC SN or IP. So, it is good to be realistic so as not to get hopes up too high. ATL has also had a couple of significant to major ZR's in the first half of Dec., but even that doesn't pick up in historical frequency til the last week of the month.
[/quote]
The only really other cold first half of December that I can remember is 05, looking back at some data it looks like 08 was pretty chilly too. This year should fall somewhere between 2005/2010
SD link said:
1) Good point. I'll go one further and say that there is almost no way that the first half of Dec. of 2016 won't easily be the coldest for the SE US as a whole since 2010.
2) ATL is about to have its single coldest Dec. day since 2010 and its biggest negative daily anomaly at least since Feb. of 2016. That is quite significant. However, a fair number of folks really only care about wintry precip., which is normally hard to get in Dec. (especially the first half). ATL has had only ~10" of SN/IP in total over the last 100 years in the first half of Dec., meaning an average of only 0.1"/first half of Dec. or only 5% of its total seasonal average. During that time, there was a major sleetstorm in 1918, the last time there was a major ATL DEC SN or IP. So, it is good to be realistic so as not to get hopes up too high. ATL has also had a couple of significant to major ZR's in the first half of Dec., but even that doesn't pick up in historical frequency til the last week of the month.
[/quote]
The only really other cold first half of December that I can remember is 05, looking back at some data it looks like 08 was pretty chilly too. This year should fall somewhere between 2005/2010
[/quote] December 09 had a pretty cold first half. 11 of the first 13 days in ATL had a high of 52 or lower. Also, Dec 00 had a pretty cold first half. One day the high was only 35 in Atlanta ! December 1995 is probably the coldest first half I can find. From Dec 1-15, 1995, the avg high in ATL was 46 and it got down to 12 degrees on 12-10-95.
SoutheastRidge link said:
1) Good point. I'll go one further and say that there is almost no way that the first half of Dec. of 2016 won't easily be the coldest for the SE US as a whole since 2010.
2) ATL is about to have its single coldest Dec. day since 2010 and its biggest negative daily anomaly at least since Feb. of 2016. That is quite significant. However, a fair number of folks really only care about wintry precip., which is normally hard to get in Dec. (especially the first half). ATL has had only ~10" of SN/IP in total over the last 100 years in the first half of Dec., meaning an average of only 0.1"/first half of Dec. or only 5% of its total seasonal average. During that time, there was a major sleetstorm in 1918, the last time there was a major ATL DEC SN or IP. So, it is good to be realistic so as not to get hopes up too high. ATL has also had a couple of significant to major ZR's in the first half of Dec., but even that doesn't pick up in historical frequency til the last week of the month.
[/quote] When was the last time if EVER, that ATL had a major snowstorm in the first half of December ? I've lived in GA my entire life and never recall even seeing snow on the ground before Dec 15. So really, any cold before Dec 15 in GA is wasted cold air.
[/quote]
1) It has been a very long time but 1917, 1896, and 1886 each had major snow and/or sleet in ATL during the first half of Dec. Tony (Dsaur) would have been in total ecstasy had he been around in 1917, when there was a big sleetstorm!
2) Think about this. There is a decent correlation between cold in Dec. and cold in Jan (see the general winter thread for the stats). So, whereas cold Dec air may get "wasted" as you put it, it is better that we get it than have a mild month for later winter cold prospects. Also, there are some folks who are looking forward to cold, even if dry, vs mild.
Storm5
Member
Re: December Discussion
1) Good point. I'll go one further and say that there is almost no way that the first half of Dec. of 2016 won't easily be the coldest for the SE US as a whole since 2010.
2) ATL is about to have its single coldest Dec. day since 2010 and its biggest negative daily anomaly at least since Feb. of 2016. That is quite significant. However, a fair number of folks really only care about wintry precip., which is normally hard to get in Dec. (especially the first half). ATL has had only ~10" of SN/IP in total over the last 100 years in the first half of Dec., meaning an average of only 0.1"/first half of Dec. or only 5% of its total seasonal average. During that time, there was a major sleetstorm in 1918, the last time there was a major ATL DEC SN or IP. So, it is good to be realistic so as not to get hopes up too high. ATL has also had a couple of significant to major ZR's in the first half of Dec., but even that doesn't pick up in historical frequency til the last week of the month.
[/quote] When was the last time if EVER, that ATL had a major snowstorm in the first half of December ? I've lived in GA my entire life and never recall even seeing snow on the ground before Dec 15. So really, any cold before Dec 15 in GA is wasted cold air.
[/quote]
yet people would complain if it were hot in December vs cold
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[/quote] I would complain if it were hot the second half of December, but the first half of December no matter how cold it is we literally never get snow or ice so its basically pointless.
[/quote]
so the only way you're happy in December is if it's cold and snowy. cold and no snow , not happy.......Warm and not happy
got it
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SoutheastRidge link said:
1) Good point. I'll go one further and say that there is almost no way that the first half of Dec. of 2016 won't easily be the coldest for the SE US as a whole since 2010.
2) ATL is about to have its single coldest Dec. day since 2010 and its biggest negative daily anomaly at least since Feb. of 2016. That is quite significant. However, a fair number of folks really only care about wintry precip., which is normally hard to get in Dec. (especially the first half). ATL has had only ~10" of SN/IP in total over the last 100 years in the first half of Dec., meaning an average of only 0.1"/first half of Dec. or only 5% of its total seasonal average. During that time, there was a major sleetstorm in 1918, the last time there was a major ATL DEC SN or IP. So, it is good to be realistic so as not to get hopes up too high. ATL has also had a couple of significant to major ZR's in the first half of Dec., but even that doesn't pick up in historical frequency til the last week of the month.
[/quote] When was the last time if EVER, that ATL had a major snowstorm in the first half of December ? I've lived in GA my entire life and never recall even seeing snow on the ground before Dec 15. So really, any cold before Dec 15 in GA is wasted cold air.
[/quote]
yet people would complain if it were hot in December vs cold
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[/quote] I would complain if it were hot the second half of December, but the first half of December no matter how cold it is we literally never get snow or ice so its basically pointless.
[/quote]
so the only way you're happy in December is if it's cold and snowy. cold and no snow , not happy.......Warm and not happy
got it
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whatalife
Moderator
SoutheastRidge link said:
1) Good point. I'll go one further and say that there is almost no way that the first half of Dec. of 2016 won't easily be the coldest for the SE US as a whole since 2010.
2) ATL is about to have its single coldest Dec. day since 2010 and its biggest negative daily anomaly at least since Feb. of 2016. That is quite significant. However, a fair number of folks really only care about wintry precip., which is normally hard to get in Dec. (especially the first half). ATL has had only ~10" of SN/IP in total over the last 100 years in the first half of Dec., meaning an average of only 0.1"/first half of Dec. or only 5% of its total seasonal average. During that time, there was a major sleetstorm in 1918, the last time there was a major ATL DEC SN or IP. So, it is good to be realistic so as not to get hopes up too high. ATL has also had a couple of significant to major ZR's in the first half of Dec., but even that doesn't pick up in historical frequency til the last week of the month.
[/quote] When was the last time if EVER, that ATL had a major snowstorm in the first half of December ? I've lived in GA my entire life and never recall even seeing snow on the ground before Dec 15. So really, any cold before Dec 15 in GA is wasted cold air.
[/quote]
yet people would complain if it were hot in December vs cold
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[/quote] I would complain if it were hot the second half of December, but the first half of December no matter how cold it is we literally never get snow or ice so its basically pointless.
[/quote]
I would rather it be cold and dry in Dec. over a warm Dec. Plus a cold Dec. typically sets the stage for a better chance of a cold January.
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Storm5
Member
whatalife link said:
1) Good point. I'll go one further and say that there is almost no way that the first half of Dec. of 2016 won't easily be the coldest for the SE US as a whole since 2010.
2) ATL is about to have its single coldest Dec. day since 2010 and its biggest negative daily anomaly at least since Feb. of 2016. That is quite significant. However, a fair number of folks really only care about wintry precip., which is normally hard to get in Dec. (especially the first half). ATL has had only ~10" of SN/IP in total over the last 100 years in the first half of Dec., meaning an average of only 0.1"/first half of Dec. or only 5% of its total seasonal average. During that time, there was a major sleetstorm in 1918, the last time there was a major ATL DEC SN or IP. So, it is good to be realistic so as not to get hopes up too high. ATL has also had a couple of significant to major ZR's in the first half of Dec., but even that doesn't pick up in historical frequency til the last week of the month.
[/quote] When was the last time if EVER, that ATL had a major snowstorm in the first half of December ? I've lived in GA my entire life and never recall even seeing snow on the ground before Dec 15. So really, any cold before Dec 15 in GA is wasted cold air.
[/quote]
yet people would complain if it were hot in December vs cold
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[/quote] I would complain if it were hot the second half of December, but the first half of December no matter how cold it is we literally never get snow or ice so its basically pointless.
[/quote]
I would rather it be cold and dry in Dec. over a warm Dec. Plus a cold Dec. typically sets the stage for a better chance of a cold January.
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[/quote]
don't worry the weeklies will crush that idea tomorrow night
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whatalife
Moderator
Storm5 link said:
1) Good point. I'll go one further and say that there is almost no way that the first half of Dec. of 2016 won't easily be the coldest for the SE US as a whole since 2010.
2) ATL is about to have its single coldest Dec. day since 2010 and its biggest negative daily anomaly at least since Feb. of 2016. That is quite significant. However, a fair number of folks really only care about wintry precip., which is normally hard to get in Dec. (especially the first half). ATL has had only ~10" of SN/IP in total over the last 100 years in the first half of Dec., meaning an average of only 0.1"/first half of Dec. or only 5% of its total seasonal average. During that time, there was a major sleetstorm in 1918, the last time there was a major ATL DEC SN or IP. So, it is good to be realistic so as not to get hopes up too high. ATL has also had a couple of significant to major ZR's in the first half of Dec., but even that doesn't pick up in historical frequency til the last week of the month.
[/quote] When was the last time if EVER, that ATL had a major snowstorm in the first half of December ? I've lived in GA my entire life and never recall even seeing snow on the ground before Dec 15. So really, any cold before Dec 15 in GA is wasted cold air.
[/quote]
yet people would complain if it were hot in December vs cold
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[/quote] I would complain if it were hot the second half of December, but the first half of December no matter how cold it is we literally never get snow or ice so its basically pointless.
[/quote]
I would rather it be cold and dry in Dec. over a warm Dec. Plus a cold Dec. typically sets the stage for a better chance of a cold January.
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[/quote]
don't worry the weeklies will crush that idea tomorrow night
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[/quote]
I'm counting on it
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Cad Wedge NC
Member
Well, looking at the PNA/AO/NAO indices today, you can tell that the pattern is still not written in stone. They are all over the place in the next 2 weeks. This usually happens until they can get a better handle on what's going to happen with the PV and the Pacific.
Storm5
Member
agree . no doubt we continue to see some wild swings especially in the 8-12 day periodCad Wedge NC link said:
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Storm5
Member
Re: December Discussion
18z gefs is gonna be a wennie special
with the midweek system next week and the system between the 16th-18th
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18z gefs is gonna be a wennie special
with the midweek system next week and the system between the 16th-18th
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N
NorthGaWinter
Guest
Gfs sucks. It's only cold when it's not raining. Rain comes and we are in the 50's. This habit can be so damn frustrating sometimes
Yep this whole evolution is interesting to watch with so many different variables that could have a significant effect on our weather in either directionCad Wedge NC link said:
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Storm5
Member
Re: December Discussion
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gfs was great a vast improvement in the 8-12 period and H5NorthGaWinter link said:
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Storm5
Member
18z gefs is all about a system in the 16th-18th period just like the eps
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RollTide18
Member
WSFA has us hitting a low of 23 tomorrow in Montgomery, if that verifies it would be the lowest temp since February 2015, wow.
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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GFS vs Euro! It's like Ali vs FrazierStorm5 link said:
Storm5
Member
GFS vs Euro! It's like Ali vs FrazierTarheel1 link said:
[/quote]
that ( the ensembles ) are actually in agreement , that's what I was saying in the post
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whatalife
Moderator
Cad Wedge NC link said:
Hard to know how thing will shape up until PNA/AO/NAO show a little more consistency. Just so many variables at play right now but I feel like we are headed in the right direction.
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Offtopic - Is everyone's smilies and posting working correctly now?
Also, avatars can be uploaded now, you shouldn't need to post urls to the avatar anymore. Uploading the image to this site is the best way to ensure your avatar will work.
Also, avatars can be uploaded now, you shouldn't need to post urls to the avatar anymore. Uploading the image to this site is the best way to ensure your avatar will work.
Storm5
Member
nice thanks manStarburst link said:
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drfranklin
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SD link said:
1) Good point. I'll go one further and say that there is almost no way that the first half of Dec. of 2016 won't easily be the coldest for the SE US as a whole since 2010.
2) ATL is about to have its single coldest Dec. day since 2010 and its biggest negative daily anomaly at least since Feb. of 2016. That is quite significant. However, a fair number of folks really only care about wintry precip., which is normally hard to get in Dec. (especially the first half). ATL has had only ~10" of SN/IP in total over the last 100 years in the first half of Dec., meaning an average of only 0.1"/first half of Dec. or only 5% of its total seasonal average. During that time, there was a major sleetstorm in 1918, the last time there was a major ATL DEC SN or IP. So, it is good to be realistic so as not to get hopes up too high. ATL has also had a couple of significant to major ZR's in the first half of Dec., but even that doesn't pick up in historical frequency til the last week of the month.
[/quote]
The only really other cold first half of December that I can remember is 05, looking back at some data it looks like 08 was pretty chilly too. This year should fall somewhere between 2005/2010
[/quote]
SD, I'm sure you remember this - devastating in Upstate SC - in fact, this storm was the impetus for the City of Greenville to start burying power lines (the city even paid for my private powerline burial)
drfranklin link said:
1) Good point. I'll go one further and say that there is almost no way that the first half of Dec. of 2016 won't easily be the coldest for the SE US as a whole since 2010.
2) ATL is about to have its single coldest Dec. day since 2010 and its biggest negative daily anomaly at least since Feb. of 2016. That is quite significant. However, a fair number of folks really only care about wintry precip., which is normally hard to get in Dec. (especially the first half). ATL has had only ~10" of SN/IP in total over the last 100 years in the first half of Dec., meaning an average of only 0.1"/first half of Dec. or only 5% of its total seasonal average. During that time, there was a major sleetstorm in 1918, the last time there was a major ATL DEC SN or IP. So, it is good to be realistic so as not to get hopes up too high. ATL has also had a couple of significant to major ZR's in the first half of Dec., but even that doesn't pick up in historical frequency til the last week of the month.
[/quote]
The only really other cold first half of December that I can remember is 05, looking back at some data it looks like 08 was pretty chilly too. This year should fall somewhere between 2005/2010
[/quote]
SD, I'm sure you remember this - devastating in Upstate SC - in fact, this storm was the impetus for the City of Greenville to start burying power lines (the city even paid for my private powerline burial)
[/quote]
Here is a
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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That was a rough one for sure! But the Dec 2 (?) ice storm of 2002, was worse toe the upstate, over a wider area, in my opinion
The 02 storm was a monster up this way 05 the precip came in too late and was fairly light. I still have nightmares about early December 2000 where we were forecast to get a huge storm and got flurries
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NCSNOW
Member
Dec 02 was mother of all ice storms. I went over a week without power, many almost 2 weeks.
And oh that Dec 2000. Had every major media outlet night before forecasting foot plus totals here. Woke up to milky skies, sun peeking through. Storm, models missed the phase. To this day wghp fox 8 met van denton still talks about the massive egg in face he and everyone else got from that one. NWS included.
Can only imagine having this weatherboard up during those events. Back then the ole dialup Internet was only good for radar. The meltdowns would have been golden to go back and read. Imagine Brick going to sleep and every outlet forecasting a foot only to wake up and see sun peeking through. But the Carolina Crusher was just the opposite so things always balance out I guess.
And oh that Dec 2000. Had every major media outlet night before forecasting foot plus totals here. Woke up to milky skies, sun peeking through. Storm, models missed the phase. To this day wghp fox 8 met van denton still talks about the massive egg in face he and everyone else got from that one. NWS included.
Can only imagine having this weatherboard up during those events. Back then the ole dialup Internet was only good for radar. The meltdowns would have been golden to go back and read. Imagine Brick going to sleep and every outlet forecasting a foot only to wake up and see sun peeking through. But the Carolina Crusher was just the opposite so things always balance out I guess.
Storm5
Member
00z gfs ....more big H5 changes in the medium range
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olhausen
Member
Brick Tamland link said:
How did the individual members and mean look? I know the GFS had 18 showing something here.
[/quote
Oh boy was 2010/2011 winter a good one. I remember getting snow every 2 weeks starting the 2nd week of December and not ending till the end of February. Here in north Tennessee we got a 2-3 inch snow two weeks before Christmas and then got a few inches on Christmas Day!
Edit: somehow I quoted the wrong post.
Storm5
Member
00z gfs has the 16th-18th system the gefs and eps are keying on
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Storm5
Member
Re: December Discussion
just massive 500 mb changes in the 00z gfs . lo just a little different
18z gfs
00z gfs
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just massive 500 mb changes in the 00z gfs . lo just a little different
18z gfs
00z gfs
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whatalife
Moderator
Nice. LOL!Storm5 link said:just massive 500 mb changes in the 00z gfs . lo just a little different
18z gfs
00z gfs
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N
NorthGaWinter
Guest
Love that run.
Storm5
Member
Re: December Discussion
Amazing GFS run
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Amazing GFS run
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whatalife
Moderator
Storm5 link said:
If you love cold you might want to hang onto this run...LOL!
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Snowman63
Member
Bring on the cold...
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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The heavy snowpack building in the plains, and soon to be Northeast, can only help the frigid air get deeper south, with less moderation! That's the set up that can bring us our memorable cold outbreaks!