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Pattern December Discussion

GaWx link said:
Rereading the posts from Starburst and Storm5, I don't have any stats, but I consider the Euro weeklies as pretty unreliable general guidance for forecasting beyond two weeks out though it is an extension of the EPS, the least inaccurate model for forecasting week 2. So, I think it has some value but fairly minimal, especially as regards details for any area. Forecasting week by week for weeks 3+ is still dicey at best even in this day and age. We often still struggle even with week 2!

Now when comparing the Euro weeklies to Judah Cohen's SAI stuff as regards the better guidance, I'd choose the Euro weeklies lol because he has done absolutely dreadful since I started following him! I read that he's calling for another cold winter for much of the E US. He may or may not get it right but a blind squirrel can find its nut. Rereading the posts from Starburst and Storm5, I don't have any stats, but I consider the Euro weeklies as pretty unreliable general guidance for forecasting beyond two weeks out though it is an extension of the EPS, the least inaccurate model for forecasting week 2. So, I think it has some value but fairly minimal, especially as regards details for any area. Forecasting week by week for weeks 3+ is still dicey at best even in this day and age. We often still struggle even with week 2!

Now when comparing the Euro weeklies to Judah Cohen's SAI stuff as regards the better guidance, I'd choose the Euro weeklies lol because he has done absolutely dreadful since I started following him! I read that he's calling for another cold winter for much of the E US. He may or may not get it right but a blind squirrel can find its nut. Is he just another JB?
Click to expand...
is it me or am I reading the same sentence over Lol, great post as alway
 
accu35 link said:
[quote author=GaWx link=topic=2.msg292#msg292 date=1480985207]
Rereading the posts from Starburst and Storm5, I don't have any stats, but I consider the Euro weeklies as pretty unreliable general guidance for forecasting beyond two weeks out though it is an extension of the EPS, the least inaccurate model for forecasting week 2. So, I think it has some value but fairly minimal, especially as regards details for any area. Forecasting week by week for weeks 3+ is still dicey at best even in this day and age. We often still struggle even with week 2!

Now when comparing the Euro weeklies to Judah Cohen's SAI stuff as regards the better guidance, I'd choose the Euro weeklies lol because he has done absolutely dreadful since I started following him! I read that he's calling for another cold winter for much of the E US. He may or may not get it right but a blind squirrel can find its nut. Rereading the posts from Starburst and Storm5, I don't have any stats, but I consider the Euro weeklies as pretty unreliable general guidance for forecasting beyond two weeks out though it is an extension of the EPS, the least inaccurate model for forecasting week 2. So, I think it has some value but fairly minimal, especially as regards details for any area. Forecasting week by week for weeks 3+ is still dicey at best even in this day and age. We often still struggle even with week 2!

Now when comparing the Euro weeklies to Judah Cohen's SAI stuff as regards the better guidance, I'd choose the Euro weeklies lol because he has done absolutely dreadful since I started following him! I read that he's calling for another cold winter for much of the E US. He may or may not get it right but a blind squirrel can find its nut. Is he just another JB?
Click to expand...
is it me or am I reading the same sentence over Lol, great post as alway
[/quote]

Thanks and fixed. My computer was acting weird/freezing up.
 
GaWx link said:
Rereading the posts from Starburst and Storm5, I don't have any stats, but I consider the Euro weeklies as pretty unreliable general guidance for forecasting beyond two weeks out though it is an extension of the EPS, the least inaccurate model for forecasting week 2. So, I think it has some value but fairly minimal, especially as regards details for any area. Forecasting week by week for weeks 3+ is still dicey at best even in this day and age. We often still struggle even with week 2!

Now when comparing the Euro weeklies to Judah Cohen's SAI stuff as regards the better guidance, I'd choose the Euro weeklies lol because he has done absolutely dreadful since I started following him! I read that he's calling for another cold winter for much of the E US. He may or may not get it right but a blind squirrel can find its nut. Is he just another JB?
Click to expand...
Unreliable! That's why JB is all over it! Says it's the coldest 45 day stretch , he's ever seen! Lookout torch, here we come!
 
Tarheel1 link said:
[quote author=GaWx link=topic=2.msg292#msg292 date=1480985207]
Rereading the posts from Starburst and Storm5, I don't have any stats, but I consider the Euro weeklies as pretty unreliable general guidance for forecasting beyond two weeks out though it is an extension of the EPS, the least inaccurate model for forecasting week 2. So, I think it has some value but fairly minimal, especially as regards details for any area. Forecasting week by week for weeks 3+ is still dicey at best even in this day and age. We often still struggle even with week 2!

Now when comparing the Euro weeklies to Judah Cohen's SAI stuff as regards the better guidance, I'd choose the Euro weeklies lol because he has done absolutely dreadful since I started following him! I read that he's calling for another cold winter for much of the E US. He may or may not get it right but a blind squirrel can find its nut. Is he just another JB?
Click to expand...
Unreliable! That's why JB is all over it! Says it's the coldest 45 day stretch , he's ever seen! Lookout torch, here we come!
[/quote]

I just called a pro met for his take on the weeklies. He called weeks 1-3 cold in especially much of the Midwest, Mid Atlantic, and NE. Weeks 1-2 being cold were already a given as the 0Z EPS already told us that. However, this met's take for weeks 4-6 at 2 meters is not for cold and instead closer to seasonable for the country on average with a fair amount of warmer than normal coverage. So, this met thinks JB is exaggerating things quite a bit. That's a shocker. ;)

Does JB do this because he's a weenie and that he also wants more clicks? I think that's a safe bet. However, I do think there may be a lesser known reason: Weatherbell may have a good number of energy clients. I know JB used to talk about his energy clients at Accuweather. Colder winters are, as most know, correlated with higher heating oil, propane, and natural gas prices. Not that these energy markets necessarily pay much attention to JB, but JB may think it does.
 
GaWx link said:
[quote author=Tarheel1 link=topic=2.msg295#msg295 date=1480988396]
[quote author=GaWx link=topic=2.msg292#msg292 date=1480985207]
Rereading the posts from Starburst and Storm5, I don't have any stats, but I consider the Euro weeklies as pretty unreliable general guidance for forecasting beyond two weeks out though it is an extension of the EPS, the least inaccurate model for forecasting week 2. So, I think it has some value but fairly minimal, especially as regards details for any area. Forecasting week by week for weeks 3+ is still dicey at best even in this day and age. We often still struggle even with week 2!

Now when comparing the Euro weeklies to Judah Cohen's SAI stuff as regards the better guidance, I'd choose the Euro weeklies lol because he has done absolutely dreadful since I started following him! I read that he's calling for another cold winter for much of the E US. He may or may not get it right but a blind squirrel can find its nut. Is he just another JB?
Click to expand...
Unreliable! That's why JB is all over it! Says it's the coldest 45 day stretch , he's ever seen! Lookout torch, here we come!
[/quote]

I just called a pro met for his take on the weeklies. He called weeks 1-3 cold in especially much of the Midwest, Mid Atlantic, and NE. Weeks 1-2 being cold were already a given as the 0Z EPS already told us that. However, this met's take for weeks 4-6 at 2 meters is not for cold and instead closer to seasonable for the country on average with a fair amount of warmer than normal coverage. So, this met thinks JB is exaggerating things quite a bit. That's a shocker. ;)

Does JB do this because he's a weenie and that he also wants more clicks? I think that's a safe bet. However, I do think there may be a lesser known reason: Weatherbell may have a good number of energy clients. I know JB used to talk about his energy clients at Accuweather. Colder winters are, as most know, correlated with higher heating oil, propane, and natural gas prices. Not that these energy markets necessarily pay much attention to JB, but JB may think it does.
[/quote]
Clicks is one reason, justification is another . JB is the biggest winter weenie there is.

Thing about the weeklies is, Thursdays run will look completely different . I feel like that's why they are not given much merit in some circles.

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
 
Storm5 link said:
[quote author=GaWx link=topic=2.msg297#msg297 date=1480992639]
[quote author=Tarheel1 link=topic=2.msg295#msg295 date=1480988396]
[quote author=GaWx link=topic=2.msg292#msg292 date=1480985207]
Rereading the posts from Starburst and Storm5, I don't have any stats, but I consider the Euro weeklies as pretty unreliable general guidance for forecasting beyond two weeks out though it is an extension of the EPS, the least inaccurate model for forecasting week 2. So, I think it has some value but fairly minimal, especially as regards details for any area. Forecasting week by week for weeks 3+ is still dicey at best even in this day and age. We often still struggle even with week 2!

Now when comparing the Euro weeklies to Judah Cohen's SAI stuff as regards the better guidance, I'd choose the Euro weeklies lol because he has done absolutely dreadful since I started following him! I read that he's calling for another cold winter for much of the E US. He may or may not get it right but a blind squirrel can find its nut. Is he just another JB?
Click to expand...
Unreliable! That's why JB is all over it! Says it's the coldest 45 day stretch , he's ever seen! Lookout torch, here we come!
[/quote]

I just called a pro met for his take on the weeklies. He called weeks 1-3 cold in especially much of the Midwest, Mid Atlantic, and NE. Weeks 1-2 being cold were already a given as the 0Z EPS already told us that. However, this met's take for weeks 4-6 at 2 meters is not for cold and instead closer to seasonable for the country on average with a fair amount of warmer than normal coverage. So, this met thinks JB is exaggerating things quite a bit. That's a shocker. ;)

Does JB do this because he's a weenie and that he also wants more clicks? I think that's a safe bet. However, I do think there may be a lesser known reason: Weatherbell may have a good number of energy clients. I know JB used to talk about his energy clients at Accuweather. Colder winters are, as most know, correlated with higher heating oil, propane, and natural gas prices. Not that these energy markets necessarily pay much attention to JB, but JB may think it does.
[/quote]
Clicks is one reason, justification is another . JB is the biggest winter weenie there is.

Thing about the weeklies is, Thursdays run will look completely different . I feel like that's why they are not given much merit in some circles.

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
[/quote]

Good point. Geez, had they run them on today's 12Z EPS run, we both know they likely would have been a good bit less cold in weeks 2-3. I do think that most folks, including those in the energy markets, hardly pay any attention to anything beyond week 2 due to extreme unreliability.

I do think they're entertaining, regardless. But why did they extend them out from 4 to 6 weeks? We know that weeks 3-4 are already largely unpredictable. Weeks 5-6? OMG!
 
GaWx link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg298#msg298 date=1480992860]
[quote author=GaWx link=topic=2.msg297#msg297 date=1480992639]
[quote author=Tarheel1 link=topic=2.msg295#msg295 date=1480988396]
[quote author=GaWx link=topic=2.msg292#msg292 date=1480985207]
Rereading the posts from Starburst and Storm5, I don't have any stats, but I consider the Euro weeklies as pretty unreliable general guidance for forecasting beyond two weeks out though it is an extension of the EPS, the least inaccurate model for forecasting week 2. So, I think it has some value but fairly minimal, especially as regards details for any area. Forecasting week by week for weeks 3+ is still dicey at best even in this day and age. We often still struggle even with week 2!

Now when comparing the Euro weeklies to Judah Cohen's SAI stuff as regards the better guidance, I'd choose the Euro weeklies lol because he has done absolutely dreadful since I started following him! I read that he's calling for another cold winter for much of the E US. He may or may not get it right but a blind squirrel can find its nut. Is he just another JB?
Click to expand...
Unreliable! That's why JB is all over it! Says it's the coldest 45 day stretch , he's ever seen! Lookout torch, here we come!
[/quote]

I just called a pro met for his take on the weeklies. He called weeks 1-3 cold in especially much of the Midwest, Mid Atlantic, and NE. Weeks 1-2 being cold were already a given as the 0Z EPS already told us that. However, this met's take for weeks 4-6 at 2 meters is not for cold and instead closer to seasonable for the country on average with a fair amount of warmer than normal coverage. So, this met thinks JB is exaggerating things quite a bit. That's a shocker. ;)

Does JB do this because he's a weenie and that he also wants more clicks? I think that's a safe bet. However, I do think there may be a lesser known reason: Weatherbell may have a good number of energy clients. I know JB used to talk about his energy clients at Accuweather. Colder winters are, as most know, correlated with higher heating oil, propane, and natural gas prices. Not that these energy markets necessarily pay much attention to JB, but JB may think it does.
[/quote]
Clicks is one reason, justification is another . JB is the biggest winter weenie there is.

Thing about the weeklies is, Thursdays run will look completely different . I feel like that's why they are not given much merit in some circles.

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
[/quote]

Good point. Geez, had they run them on today's 12Z EPS run, we both know they likely would have been a good bit less cold in weeks 2-3. I do think that most folks, including those in the energy markets, hardly pay any attention to anything beyond week 2 due to extreme unreliability.

I do think they're entertaining, regardless. But why did they extend them out from 4 to 6 weeks? We know that weeks 3-4 are already largely unpredictable. Weeks 5-6? OMG!
[/quote]

JB is as unreliable as the models are and why anyone would pay big money for his guidance is beyond me.

The Weeklies are a crapshoot past 2 weeks out and would cause me to be a drunkard if I put much stock in them.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
whatalife link said:
[quote author=GaWx link=topic=2.msg299#msg299 date=1480993531]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg298#msg298 date=1480992860]
[quote author=GaWx link=topic=2.msg297#msg297 date=1480992639]
[quote author=Tarheel1 link=topic=2.msg295#msg295 date=1480988396]
[quote author=GaWx link=topic=2.msg292#msg292 date=1480985207]
Rereading the posts from Starburst and Storm5, I don't have any stats, but I consider the Euro weeklies as pretty unreliable general guidance for forecasting beyond two weeks out though it is an extension of the EPS, the least inaccurate model for forecasting week 2. So, I think it has some value but fairly minimal, especially as regards details for any area. Forecasting week by week for weeks 3+ is still dicey at best even in this day and age. We often still struggle even with week 2!

Now when comparing the Euro weeklies to Judah Cohen's SAI stuff as regards the better guidance, I'd choose the Euro weeklies lol because he has done absolutely dreadful since I started following him! I read that he's calling for another cold winter for much of the E US. He may or may not get it right but a blind squirrel can find its nut. Is he just another JB?
Click to expand...
Unreliable! That's why JB is all over it! Says it's the coldest 45 day stretch , he's ever seen! Lookout torch, here we come!
[/quote]

I just called a pro met for his take on the weeklies. He called weeks 1-3 cold in especially much of the Midwest, Mid Atlantic, and NE. Weeks 1-2 being cold were already a given as the 0Z EPS already told us that. However, this met's take for weeks 4-6 at 2 meters is not for cold and instead closer to seasonable for the country on average with a fair amount of warmer than normal coverage. So, this met thinks JB is exaggerating things quite a bit. That's a shocker. ;)

Does JB do this because he's a weenie and that he also wants more clicks? I think that's a safe bet. However, I do think there may be a lesser known reason: Weatherbell may have a good number of energy clients. I know JB used to talk about his energy clients at Accuweather. Colder winters are, as most know, correlated with higher heating oil, propane, and natural gas prices. Not that these energy markets necessarily pay much attention to JB, but JB may think it does.
[/quote]
Clicks is one reason, justification is another . JB is the biggest winter weenie there is.

Thing about the weeklies is, Thursdays run will look completely different . I feel like that's why they are not given much merit in some circles.

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
[/quote]

Good point. Geez, had they run them on today's 12Z EPS run, we both know they likely would have been a good bit less cold in weeks 2-3. I do think that most folks, including those in the energy markets, hardly pay any attention to anything beyond week 2 due to extreme unreliability.

I do think they're entertaining, regardless. But why did they extend them out from 4 to 6 weeks? We know that weeks 3-4 are already largely unpredictable. Weeks 5-6? OMG!
[/quote]

JB is as unreliable as the models are and why anyone would pay big money for his guidance is beyond me.

The Weeklies are a crapshoot past 2 weeks out and would cause me to be a drunkard if I put much stock in them.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
[/quote]
I don't think he is that bad. I do think he is dramatic and hypes things to get viewers but that's just good business. He is right alot and wrong alot . With that said, he does model hug the one model that best fits his ideas, but most winter weenies do December -January

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
 
Storm5 link said:
[quote author=whatalife link=topic=2.msg301#msg301 date=1480994570]
[quote author=GaWx link=topic=2.msg299#msg299 date=1480993531]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg298#msg298 date=1480992860]
[quote author=GaWx link=topic=2.msg297#msg297 date=1480992639]
[quote author=Tarheel1 link=topic=2.msg295#msg295 date=1480988396]
[quote author=GaWx link=topic=2.msg292#msg292 date=1480985207]
Rereading the posts from Starburst and Storm5, I don't have any stats, but I consider the Euro weeklies as pretty unreliable general guidance for forecasting beyond two weeks out though it is an extension of the EPS, the least inaccurate model for forecasting week 2. So, I think it has some value but fairly minimal, especially as regards details for any area. Forecasting week by week for weeks 3+ is still dicey at best even in this day and age. We often still struggle even with week 2!

Now when comparing the Euro weeklies to Judah Cohen's SAI stuff as regards the better guidance, I'd choose the Euro weeklies lol because he has done absolutely dreadful since I started following him! I read that he's calling for another cold winter for much of the E US. He may or may not get it right but a blind squirrel can find its nut. Is he just another JB?
Click to expand...
Unreliable! That's why JB is all over it! Says it's the coldest 45 day stretch , he's ever seen! Lookout torch, here we come!
[/quote]

I just called a pro met for his take on the weeklies. He called weeks 1-3 cold in especially much of the Midwest, Mid Atlantic, and NE. Weeks 1-2 being cold were already a given as the 0Z EPS already told us that. However, this met's take for weeks 4-6 at 2 meters is not for cold and instead closer to seasonable for the country on average with a fair amount of warmer than normal coverage. So, this met thinks JB is exaggerating things quite a bit. That's a shocker. ;)

Does JB do this because he's a weenie and that he also wants more clicks? I think that's a safe bet. However, I do think there may be a lesser known reason: Weatherbell may have a good number of energy clients. I know JB used to talk about his energy clients at Accuweather. Colder winters are, as most know, correlated with higher heating oil, propane, and natural gas prices. Not that these energy markets necessarily pay much attention to JB, but JB may think it does.
[/quote]
Clicks is one reason, justification is another . JB is the biggest winter weenie there is.

Thing about the weeklies is, Thursdays run will look completely different . I feel like that's why they are not given much merit in some circles.

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
[/quote]

Good point. Geez, had they run them on today's 12Z EPS run, we both know they likely would have been a good bit less cold in weeks 2-3. I do think that most folks, including those in the energy markets, hardly pay any attention to anything beyond week 2 due to extreme unreliability.

I do think they're entertaining, regardless. But why did they extend them out from 4 to 6 weeks? We know that weeks 3-4 are already largely unpredictable. Weeks 5-6? OMG!
[/quote]

JB is as unreliable as the models are and why anyone would pay big money for his guidance is beyond me.

The Weeklies are a crapshoot past 2 weeks out and would cause me to be a drunkard if I put much stock in them.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
[/quote]
I don't think he is that bad. I do think he is dramatic and hypes things to get viewers but that's just good business. He is right alot and wrong alot . With that said, he does model hug the one model that best fits his ideas, but most winter weenies do December -January

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
[/quote]

No not me...LOL!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Re: December Discussion

I'll save everyone the trouble, don't look at the 00z gfs
b53a747fbdc789cb679bfdaba65f0e34.jpg

c5a50a485462ab8baa18e4f7980dd6c6.jpg
860eeb79c787586e5d6b8b59a54d87f2.jpg


the irony of this tweet coming out during this run of the gfs is priceless
a91d53d744b48650f2b3a1fcd6708938.jpg

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
 
accu35 link said:
Gfs shuffling as always but still shows the Arctic air in the lower 48 in some fashion way. Maybe we can see a bleed to the east little more in due time. WAY to early for anyone to cliff jump, this first week of Dec, long ways to go. To get a southeast winter storm in Dec is a bonus. 8)
Click to expand...

Eh, this is a front-loaded deal.  If we can't muster something up by late Jan, we are out of luck.  We have a big chance between Mid-December and Mid to late Jan. (for a deep southern snow, not just fringes/worthless events).

Edit:  I should have noted I do not count sleet and freezing rain.  That could still happen well into Feb/Early March as usual.
 
Well it's not a total torch at least! Mid-month still could get interesting.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
metwannabe link said:
[quote author=SD link=topic=2.msg320#msg320 date=1481030149]
damn the last few frames of the 6z GFS are awesome.
Click to expand...

No doubt....  middle of the month this place will be jumping (and I don't mean off the cliff!)
[/quote]

Lets hope. I find the evolution of this pattern to be so interesting since one piece being different has such a big end result. I believe that we some big warm periods this month but with arctic air lurking in Canada I can't see a December like last year
 
SD link said:
[quote author=metwannabe link=topic=2.msg322#msg322 date=1481030740]
[quote author=SD link=topic=2.msg320#msg320 date=1481030149]
damn the last few frames of the 6z GFS are awesome.
Click to expand...

No doubt....  middle of the month this place will be jumping (and I don't mean off the cliff!)
[/quote]

Lets hope. I find the evolution of this pattern to be so interesting since one piece being different has such a big end result. I believe that we some big warm periods this month but with arctic air lurking in Canada I can't see a December like last year
[/quote]
Totally agree and to me anyway this certainly has overrunning written all over it at some point.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 
Well, from the looks of last night's runs of the GFS, it's still having problems with the up-coming LR pattern. We have all seen this before. It is not even worth looking at past 7 days right now.
 
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