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Pattern December Discussion

For this first cold snap, looks to be a pretty quick turn around. Back to 60 by Monday for me.
 
Got this in the mail yesterday. I hope this isn't a sign of how winter will turn out. LOL!
a7d6eccf859b1c733e782c7b948316ab.jpg



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Well I must say I've been lost without Talkweather.  I'm glad I found the group!

How real is the threat for the 14-15 period?
 
What does all mean?
And how much for NC? Are two questions that come to mind!
 
Tarheel1 link said:
What does all mean?
And how much for NC? Are two questions that come to mind!
Click to expand...

Ha no kidding. I like the fact that we continue to see threats in the long range but it looks like the threats are starting to slowly slip away and move back out in time.
 
Storm5 link said:
[quote author=SD link=topic=2.msg591#msg591 date=1481203572]
Overnight models really gave more questions than answers.
Click to expand...
agree, the water was muddy before . Now it's just black

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[/quote]
The cold seems to be a lock, hopefully! And as long as we have the cold , even just near or around us, we could score with a wedge! Even though the specific storms are getting muddy, if the cold can lock in the US, I'm excited about the next 2-3 weeks
 
Tarheel1 link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg594#msg594 date=1481204640]
[quote author=SD link=topic=2.msg591#msg591 date=1481203572]
Overnight models really gave more questions than answers.
Click to expand...
agree, the water was muddy before . Now it's just black

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[/quote]
The cold seems to be a lock, hopefully! And as long as we have the cold , even just near or around us, we could score with a wedge! Even though the specific storms are getting muddy, if the cold can lock in the US, I'm excited about the next 2-3 weeks
[/quote]
that's the whole issue in my opinion. the cold is a lock this week and next. but as we get towards christmas it's looking very likely we relax and warm. this is shown across all ensembles. the question then becomes how long does that last a week two weeks.

the other issue as mentioned yesterday is the PV is forecast to strengthen and head towards the pole which is what we don't want.

Lots more questions vs answers

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SD link said:
[quote author=Tarheel1 link=topic=2.msg592#msg592 date=1481203729]
What does all mean?
And how much for NC? Are two questions that come to mind!
Click to expand...

Ha no kidding. I like the fact that we continue to see threats in the long range but it looks like the threats are starting to slowly slip away and move back out in time.
[/quote]

At least we're seeing threats, and it's already showing up before the middle of December. That's a lot better than last winter. I really like our chances. Reminds me a lot of the winter of 2010-2011 when we started seeing threats show up in December. Not saying we'll get another Christmas storm, but I think seeing these threats and close calls showing up already is a good sign.
 
My take, I think the cold stays around for a while and I'm willing to bet someone special is going to be throwing snowballs or busting there ass on ice before Christmas, bank it.
 
Storm5 link said:
[quote author=Tarheel1 link=topic=2.msg595#msg595 date=1481205219]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg594#msg594 date=1481204640]
[quote author=SD link=topic=2.msg591#msg591 date=1481203572]
Overnight models really gave more questions than answers.
Click to expand...
agree, the water was muddy before . Now it's just black

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
[/quote]
The cold seems to be a lock, hopefully! And as long as we have the cold , even just near or around us, we could score with a wedge! Even though the specific storms are getting muddy, if the cold can lock in the US, I'm excited about the next 2-3 weeks
[/quote]
that's the whole issue in my opinion. the cold is a lock this week and next. but as we get towards christmas it's looking very likely we relax and warm. this is shown across all ensembles. the question then becomes how long does that last a week two weeks.

the other issue as mentioned yesterday is the PV is forecast to strengthen and head towards the pole which is what we don't want.

Lots more questions vs answers

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[/quote]
Lots of issues, I agree, but as with patterns taking forever to materialize, sometimes on the models, on the same token, they often break them down too fast also!
 
Storm5 link said:
till 12z rolls around

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Click to expand...

I know we have talked about the pattern breaking down a bit toward Christmas but you could make a case from what we are currently seeing that instead of really relaxing we get into more of a coldmoderate ahead of a front and raincold type cycle during christmas week instead of a full fledged SE ridge.
 
whatalife link said:
[quote author=SD link=topic=2.msg597#msg597 date=1481205546]
We can always hang our hat on this
Click to expand...

Sweet! So you'll hug the GFS. What could possibly go wrong with that....LOL!


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[/quote]

I'm considering hugging the NAM for Sunday  8)
 
*confused.  I don't see much of anything other than a strong high moving out?
 
Well the cold is certainly there on the 12z GFS later next week...Unfortunately I cannot upload a picture without it telling me the file is too large so clearly I am a Moron! ;D
Central and Southern Ark look to have a little late week fun...if you consider ICE as fun that is...
 
Re: December Discussion

as SD pointed out yesterday. little changes at H5 have huge implications downstream

06z gfs
86b011dd1b941fb0c98fe04d7ffeccd0.jpg



12z gfs
31b0a43a4841b9ceb9ee1dc349182519.jpg

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Re: December Discussion

damn 12z gfs goes for the triple with three arctic outbreaks, each one strong than the previous

16th-18th is a window that seems to be opening more and more each day that passes

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You have to like the progression of late in most guidance.  So much better than last December
 
Wow - Very late in the run but several on here will like a serving of what the GFS is cooking!  Someone can post the Clown..
 
Supershow link said:
Well the cold is certainly there on the 12z GFS later next week...Unfortunately I cannot upload a picture without it telling me the file is too large so clearly I am a Moron! ;D
Central and Southern Ark look to have a little late week fun...if you consider ICE as fun that is...
Click to expand...

It's best to upload the image to another hosting site such as postimage.org and then link it here.
 
SD link said:
This GFS run.....
Click to expand...

Wild isn't it? Especially going into Christmas Eve...A major arctic blast along with wintry precip? Ha, if only! It was very interesting to look at regardless. Now we just wait fro the 18z to take it all away again. :p
 
Can't wait to see the weeklies. I'm sure Charlie is waiting with bated breath...


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whatalife link said:
Can't wait to see the weeklies. I'm sure Charlie is waiting with bated breath...


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Click to expand...
no doubt . we are due an epic weeklies run

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Brick Tamland link said:
Looks like just rain for me.
Click to expand...

Yep, but I would take my chances with the cold vs the SE ridge in this type of scenario and we get a lot more wintry precip
 
Storm5 link said:
[quote author=whatalife link=topic=2.msg631#msg631 date=1481216971]
Can't wait to see the weeklies. I'm sure Charlie is waiting with bated breath...


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Click to expand...
no doubt . we are due an epic weeklies run

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[/quote]

True.


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SD link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg599#msg599 date=1481205705]

till 12z rolls around

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Click to expand...

I know we have talked about the pattern breaking down a bit toward Christmas but you could make a case from what we are currently seeing that instead of really relaxing we get into more of a coldmoderate ahead of a front and raincold type cycle during christmas week instead of a full fledged SE ridge.
[/quote]
agreed , in fact I'm starting to get on the 4-6 weeks of a general cold pattern before it all goes to hell late January. Obviously not sustained cold for 4-6 weeks. but enough of a cold pattern to give us chances vs having to wait on a pattern shuffle. I was sold on a pattern breakdown before the new year, I have doubts now

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Re: December Discussion

SD link said:
[quote author=Brick Tamland link=topic=2.msg636#msg636 date=1481217271]
Looks like just rain for me.
Click to expand...

Yep, but I would take my chances with the cold vs the SE ridge in this type of scenario and we get a lot more wintry precip
[/quote]
bingo . of course, it's just a gfs op run so the obvious rules apply . but a stalled arctic front setting a battle ground for overrunning wintry precip is far more likely in this type of pattern vs a full blown miller A . I'd take overrunning over a miller all day

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