Storm5
Member
Look we all won't cold and snow . But we also have to be realistic. We are not getting anything like the 18z gfs . While fun to look at, it's not happening . Looking at the different model runs from day to day is fun. But what the model shows at the surface isn't important at all. The actual 500 mb pattern is the most important thing. What happens at the surface is a direct result of the H5 pattern .
With that said , as many have pointed to for a while now mid month seems to be the first POSSIBLE wintry threat for the southeast. I still say that favors Arkansas, Tennessee and NC . A strong push of arctic air could very well set the stage for a nice overrunning event with a slight SW flow . The only thing I'm looking for over the next week is to see how the pacific shapes up. Does our ridge build and hold? The last thing we need is to have lower heights build over the GOA , if that happens we are screwed and will have to wait for yet another pattern shuffle.
The GFS , EURO and GEFS are all showing a cross polar flow allowing the true arctic air to spill south. Below is what we want see with the ridge, up and over the top . We need that to verify and hold.
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With that said , as many have pointed to for a while now mid month seems to be the first POSSIBLE wintry threat for the southeast. I still say that favors Arkansas, Tennessee and NC . A strong push of arctic air could very well set the stage for a nice overrunning event with a slight SW flow . The only thing I'm looking for over the next week is to see how the pacific shapes up. Does our ridge build and hold? The last thing we need is to have lower heights build over the GOA , if that happens we are screwed and will have to wait for yet another pattern shuffle.
The GFS , EURO and GEFS are all showing a cross polar flow allowing the true arctic air to spill south. Below is what we want see with the ridge, up and over the top . We need that to verify and hold.
Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
WOW!
