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Pattern December Discussion

Re: December Discussion

12z euro wants nothing to do with the NC threat  dry frontal passage . damn it's cold this run

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Glancing over it on a small screen, looks like the system gets crushed by the high around the 15th.
 
Temps are close at 168, like i said I'm looking at crappy maps, but low is there
 
Love the arctic blast on the 12z Euro...No real threat through 198 hrs...


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I'm afraid we are going to use up all of our cold supply this month and not be left with much the rest of the winter. Let's hope and pray a miracle occurs and somehow at some point the cold and moisture will meet up. Otherwise, it's going to be a lot of wasted cold air
 
Starburst link said:
Glancing over it on a small screen, looks like the system gets crushed by the high around the 15th.
Click to expand...
hardly a system there

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489 heights just taking a visit to the lakes. nothing to see here. rofl
 
Storm5 link said:
[quote author=Starburst link=topic=2.msg465#msg465 date=1481136382]
Glancing over it on a small screen, looks like the system gets crushed by the high around the 15th.
Click to expand...
hardly a system there

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[/quote]

GFS comes in more amplified and the Euro comes in flatter. Go figure.
 
NorthGaWinter link said:
Temps are close at 168, like i said I'm looking at crappy maps, but low is there
Click to expand...
I'd hardly call that a low
1825008e50b6d686b7fd2b91b832c44c.jpg


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12 z euro has a system day ten moving into moderating cold air . a little wedge is in place but even those places are already close to freezing and warming. nice cold shot headed in at the end of that run. but that's all noise so far out

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I just don't like how it warms up so fast. 16 in Birmingham one morning and 27 the next morning. We need to somehow find a way to get cold air locked down here.
 
SoutheastRidge link said:
I just don't like how it warms up so fast. 16 in Birmingham one morning and 27 the next morning. We need to somehow find a way to get cold air locked down here.
Click to expand...
the euro is a reloading pattern . end of the run another blast is on the way. Given the northern hemisphere pattern at 500 mb we are not gonna lock cold in down our way. what we will do is lock it in on our side of the world which is a huge victory and 180 degrees different from this time last year

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Storm5 link said:
[quote author=SoutheastRidge link=topic=2.msg479#msg479 date=1481139140]
I just don't like how it warms up so fast. 16 in Birmingham one morning and 27 the next morning. We need to somehow find a way to get cold air locked down here.
Click to expand...
the euro is a reloading pattern . end of the run another blast is on the way. Given the northern hemisphere pattern at 500 mb we are not gonna lock cold in down our way. what we will do is lock it in on our side of the world which is a huge victory and 180 degrees different from this time last year

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[/quote] locking in on our side of the world, will that give us more chances at strong cold fronts vrs regular ftonts
 
I mean you would think all the snow pack north of us gives us better "substantial" fronts? Im still learning
 
Re: December Discussion

accu35 link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg480#msg480 date=1481139448]
[quote author=SoutheastRidge link=topic=2.msg479#msg479 date=1481139140]
I just don't like how it warms up so fast. 16 in Birmingham one morning and 27 the next morning. We need to somehow find a way to get cold air locked down here.
Click to expand...
the euro is a reloading pattern . end of the run another blast is on the way. Given the northern hemisphere pattern at 500 mb we are not gonna lock cold in down our way. what we will do is lock it in on our side of the world which is a huge victory and 180 degrees different from this time last year

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
[/quote] locking in on our side of the world, will that give us more chances at strong cold fronts vrs regular ftonts
[/quote]
It just makes it easier to tap the cold source. Its alot easier to make lemonade out of lemons when they are close by. Does not mean we see stronger cold fronts verbatim.  Problem with the pattern is, it's not a typical winter weather pattern for the SE ( if there is such a thing). In this type of pattern we need to watch for overrunning along the arctic front or an embedded shortwave that rides the flow across the country . Problem with that idea is , more than likely it passes north of the region , kinda like the 12z euro is showing at day ten.

The midweek setup on the euro is tricky. the cold blast is too strong and really crushes any possible wave that develops. Ok, so we want a weaker cold shot to allow for amplification?  Then your running the risk of temps being too warm. Life in the southeast .

The question becomes what happens to the pattern towards christmas. No doubt it's gonna break and be warmer but what happens after that? Do we build higher heights in the west? What does the AO/NAO do?? Does the PV start to strengthen and head towards the pole? If that happens the brutal cold in Canada will modify . Only thing I like at this point is the cold is on our side world currently. How long does it stay is the question

I'll say it again , this type of pattern favors the upper southeast . Arkansas ,Tenn and NC. Does that mean we can't wintry down our way ? No , but the chances are not very good
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Re: December Discussion

Storm5 link said:
[quote author=accu35 link=topic=2.msg481#msg481 date=1481139793]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg480#msg480 date=1481139448]
[quote author=SoutheastRidge link=topic=2.msg479#msg479 date=1481139140]
I just don't like how it warms up so fast. 16 in Birmingham one morning and 27 the next morning. We need to somehow find a way to get cold air locked down here.
Click to expand...
the euro is a reloading pattern . end of the run another blast is on the way. Given the northern hemisphere pattern at 500 mb we are not gonna lock cold in down our way. what we will do is lock it in on our side of the world which is a huge victory and 180 degrees different from this time last year

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
[/quote] locking in on our side of the world, will that give us more chances at strong cold fronts vrs regular ftonts
[/quote]
It just makes it easier to tap the cold source. Its alot easier to make lemonade out of lemons when they are close by. Does not mean we see stronger cold fronts verbatim.  Problem with the pattern is, it's not a typical winter weather pattern for the SE ( if there is such a thing). In this type of pattern we need to watch for overrunning along the arctic front or an embedded shortwave that rides the flow across the country . Problem with that idea is , more than likely it passes north of the region , kinda like the 12z euro is showing at day ten.

The midweek setup on the euro is tricky. the cold blast is too strong and really crushes any possible wave that develops. Ok, so we want a weaker cold shot to allow for amplification?  Then your running the risk of temps being too warm. Life in the southeast .

The question becomes what happens to the pattern towards christmas. No doubt it's gonna break and be warmer but what happens after that? Do we build higher heights in the west? What does the AO/NAO do?? Does the PV start to strengthen and head towards the pole? If that happens the brutal cold in Canada will modify . Only thing I like at this point is the cold is on our side world currently. How long does it stay is the question

I'll say it again , this type of pattern favors the upper southeast . Arkansas ,Tenn and NC. Does that mean we can't wintry down our way ? No , but the chances are not very good
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[/quote] Well that is downright depressing. The fact that there's so much cold air moving to the south and we still can't cash in pretty much makes me want to give up hope on this winter. I've said it once and i'll say it again... Living between I-10 and the TN line is the worst place for snow lovers unless you live in the mountains. We get teased so much it's not even funny. We get about as much snow as Miami but they get to have nice and warm weather all winter long while we are left cold and dry. If you like cold weather, sure we are in a better location than Florida. But if you like snow, doesn't make a difference whether you're in Key West or Atlanta.
 
SoutheastRidge link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg483#msg483 date=1481140517]
[quote author=accu35 link=topic=2.msg481#msg481 date=1481139793]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg480#msg480 date=1481139448]
[quote author=SoutheastRidge link=topic=2.msg479#msg479 date=1481139140]
I just don't like how it warms up so fast. 16 in Birmingham one morning and 27 the next morning. We need to somehow find a way to get cold air locked down here.
Click to expand...
the euro is a reloading pattern . end of the run another blast is on the way. Given the northern hemisphere pattern at 500 mb we are not gonna lock cold in down our way. what we will do is lock it in on our side of the world which is a huge victory and 180 degrees different from this time last year

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
[/quote] locking in on our side of the world, will that give us more chances at strong cold fronts vrs regular ftonts
[/quote]
It just makes it easier to tap the cold source. Its alot easier to make lemonade out of lemons when they are close by. Does not mean we see stronger cold fronts verbatim.  Problem with the pattern is, it's not a typical winter weather pattern for the SE ( if there is such a thing). In this type of pattern we need to watch for overrunning along the arctic front or an embedded shortwave that rides the flow across the country . Problem with that idea is , more than likely it passes north of the region , kinda like the 12z euro is showing at day ten.

The midweek setup on the euro is tricky. the cold blast is too strong and really crushes any possible wave that develops. Ok, so we want a weaker cold shot to allow for amplification?  Then your running the risk of temps being too warm. Life in the southeast .

The question becomes what happens to the pattern towards christmas. No doubt it's gonna break and be warmer but what happens after that? Do we build higher heights in the west? What does the AO/NAO do?? Does the PV start to strengthen and head towards the pole? If that happens the brutal cold in Canada will modify . Only thing I like at this point is the cold is on our side world currently. How long does it stay is the question

I'll say it again , this type of pattern favors the upper southeast . Arkansas ,Tenn and NC. Does that mean we can't wintry down our way ? No , but the chances are not very good
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[/quote] Well that is downright depressing. The fact that there's so much cold air moving to the south and we still can't cash in pretty much makes me want to give up hope on this winter.
[/quote]
winter just started no reason to give up. It's not doom and gloom and all. We just need a little suffer at H5 to get us in a better pattern for wintry weather . I'm not saying it can't or won't happen for someone late next week . I just think the odds are pretty low at this point if you live south of Tennessee

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Storm5 link said:
damn the 12z eps is cold

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Click to expand...

I wonder if my gas bill will be as astronomical as my electric bill during August.
 
12z eps supports the idea of the euro with a day 8-12 system but that's way out there . But there are some fun looking members

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SD link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg488#msg488 date=1481142398]
damn the 12z eps is cold

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Click to expand...

I wonder if my gas bill will be as astronomical as my electric bill during August.
[/quote]
no it won't , it will be higher

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I just don't understand how they are calling this an arctic outbreak. Highs in the 40s, lows in the 20s is cold but shouldn't it be a little bit colder than that to be considered arctic ? One guy on the local news said there's a lot of snowpack in Canada so the air wouldn't have any time to modify, and i'm thinking to myself if that was the case wouldn't it be a lot colder than forecast ? I think the local meteorologists are making way too big of a deal out of this.
 
Re: December Discussion

SoutheastRidge link said:
I just don't understand how they are calling this an arctic outbreak. Highs in the 40s, lows in the 20s is cold but shouldn't it be a little bit colder than that to be considered arctic ? One guy on the local news said there's a lot of snowpack in Canada so the air wouldn't have any time to modify, and i'm thinking to myself if that was the case wouldn't it be a lot colder than forecast ? I think the local meteorologists are making way too big of a deal out of this.
Click to expand...
we live in the southeast we are not gonna get the highs in the single digits to below zero like the midwest.

It's an arctic outbreak we catch the edge of it not the core

if this isn't an arctic outbreak I don't know what is
ce6172e78842c3ab8d73b786bb3a5c96.jpg


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Storm5 link said:
[quote author=SoutheastRidge link=topic=2.msg492#msg492 date=1481143921]
I just don't understand how they are calling this an arctic outbreak. Highs in the 40s, lows in the 20s is cold but shouldn't it be a little bit colder than that to be considered arctic ? One guy on the local news said there's a lot of snowpack in Canada so the air wouldn't have any time to modify, and i'm thinking to myself if that was the case wouldn't it be a lot colder than forecast ? I think the local meteorologists are making way too big of a deal out of this.
Click to expand...
we live in the southeast we are not gonna get the highs in the single digits to below zero like the midwest.

It's an arctic outbreak we catch the edge of it not the core

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[/quote] Well I know that, but i've seen plenty of arctic outbreaks with highs near freezing.
 
SoutheastRidge link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg494#msg494 date=1481144115]
[quote author=SoutheastRidge link=topic=2.msg492#msg492 date=1481143921]
I just don't understand how they are calling this an arctic outbreak. Highs in the 40s, lows in the 20s is cold but shouldn't it be a little bit colder than that to be considered arctic ? One guy on the local news said there's a lot of snowpack in Canada so the air wouldn't have any time to modify, and i'm thinking to myself if that was the case wouldn't it be a lot colder than forecast ? I think the local meteorologists are making way too big of a deal out of this.
Click to expand...
we live in the southeast we are not gonna get the highs in the single digits to below zero like the midwest.

It's an arctic outbreak we catch the edge of it not the core

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[/quote] Well I know that, but i've seen plenty of arctic outbreaks with highs near freezing.
[/quote]
if seen plenty with highs in the 20s , they are all different as you know . But the variations don't change the fact they are arctic outbreak

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Storm5 link said:
[quote author=SoutheastRidge link=topic=2.msg492#msg492 date=1481143921]
I just don't understand how they are calling this an arctic outbreak. Highs in the 40s, lows in the 20s is cold but shouldn't it be a little bit colder than that to be considered arctic ? One guy on the local news said there's a lot of snowpack in Canada so the air wouldn't have any time to modify, and i'm thinking to myself if that was the case wouldn't it be a lot colder than forecast ? I think the local meteorologists are making way too big of a deal out of this.
Click to expand...
we live in the southeast we are not gonna get the highs in the single digits to below zero like the midwest.

It's an arctic outbreak we catch the edge of it not the core

if this isn't an arctic outbreak I don't know what is
ce6172e78842c3ab8d73b786bb3a5c96.jpg


Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
[/quote]


I'll take that and run with it. Especially considering the last few Decembers.


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euro ensembles and gfs ensembles are in agreement with a system the 16th-18th. Looks to be the first widespread threat of the season especially for Arkansas,Tennessee and NC

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SD link said:
This is most likely going to be the coldest first half of December since 2010
Click to expand...
Considering that every December since December 2011 has been a torch it really wouldn't take much for this to be the coldest first half of December since 2010. Temps could be AN the first half of Dec and still be the coldest since Dec 2010.
 
SD link said:
This is most likely going to be the coldest first half of December since 2010
Click to expand...

That's what I was thinking, too. That turned out to be a good December and winter. I remember before the Christmas snow that year there were a couple small threats that we tracked.
 
Storm5 link said:
euro ensembles and gfs ensembles are in agreement with a system the 16th-18th. Looks to be the first widespread threat of the season especially for Arkansas,Tennessee and NC

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Click to expand...

How did the individual members and mean look? I know the GFS had 18 showing something here.
 
SD link said:
This is realistically the coldest first half of December since 2010
Click to expand...

1) Good point. I'll go one further and say that there is almost no way that the first half of Dec. of 2016 won't easily be the coldest for the SE US as a whole since 2010.

2) ATL is about to have its single coldest Dec. day since 2010 and its biggest negative daily anomaly at least since Feb. of 2016. That is quite significant. However, a fair number of folks really only care about wintry precip., which is normally hard to get in Dec. (especially the first half). ATL has had only ~10" of SN/IP in total over the last 100 years in the first half of Dec., meaning an average of only 0.1"/first half of Dec. or only 5% of its total seasonal average. During that time, there was a major sleetstorm in 1918, the last time there was a major ATL DEC SN or IP. So, it is good to be realistic so as not to get hopes up too high. ATL has also had a couple of significant to major ZR's in the first half of Dec., but even that doesn't pick up in historical frequency til the last week of the month.
 
GaWx link said:
[quote author=SD link=topic=2.msg501#msg501 date=1481145177]
This is realistically the coldest first half of December since 2010
Click to expand...

1) Good point. I'll go one further and say that there is almost no way that the first half of Dec. of 2016 won't easily be the coldest for the SE US as a whole since 2010.

2) ATL is about to have its single coldest Dec. day since 2010 and its biggest negative daily anomaly at least since Feb. of 2016. That is quite significant. However, a fair number of folks really only care about wintry precip., which is normally hard to get in Dec. (especially the first half). ATL has had only ~10" of SN/IP in total over the last 100 years in the first half of Dec., meaning an average of only 0.1"/first half of Dec. or only 5% of its total seasonal average. During that time, there was a major sleetstorm in 1918, the last time there was a major ATL DEC SN or IP. So, it is good to be realistic so as not to get hopes up too high. ATL has also had a couple of significant to major ZR's in the first half of Dec., but even that doesn't pick up in historical frequency til the last week of the month.
[/quote] When was the last time if EVER, that ATL had a major snowstorm in the first half of December ? I've lived in GA my entire life and never recall even seeing snow on the ground before Dec 15. So really, any cold before Dec 15 in GA is wasted cold air.
 
Brick Tamland link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg502#msg502 date=1481145268]
euro ensembles and gfs ensembles are in agreement with a system the 16th-18th. Looks to be the first widespread threat of the season especially for Arkansas,Tennessee and NC

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Click to expand...

How did the individual members and mean look? I know the GFS had 18 showing something here.
[/quote]
I'll look when the meteograms come out

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Re: December Discussion

SoutheastRidge link said:
[quote author=GaWx link=topic=2.msg506#msg506 date=1481146007]
[quote author=SD link=topic=2.msg501#msg501 date=1481145177]
This is realistically the coldest first half of December since 2010
Click to expand...

1) Good point. I'll go one further and say that there is almost no way that the first half of Dec. of 2016 won't easily be the coldest for the SE US as a whole since 2010.

2) ATL is about to have its single coldest Dec. day since 2010 and its biggest negative daily anomaly at least since Feb. of 2016. That is quite significant. However, a fair number of folks really only care about wintry precip., which is normally hard to get in Dec. (especially the first half). ATL has had only ~10" of SN/IP in total over the last 100 years in the first half of Dec., meaning an average of only 0.1"/first half of Dec. or only 5% of its total seasonal average. During that time, there was a major sleetstorm in 1918, the last time there was a major ATL DEC SN or IP. So, it is good to be realistic so as not to get hopes up too high. ATL has also had a couple of significant to major ZR's in the first half of Dec., but even that doesn't pick up in historical frequency til the last week of the month.
[/quote] When was the last time if EVER, that ATL had a major snowstorm in the first half of December ? I've lived in GA my entire life and never recall even seeing snow on the ground before Dec 15. So really, any cold before Dec 15 in GA is wasted cold air.
[/quote]
yet people would complain if it were hot in December vs cold

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Re: December Discussion

Storm5 link said:
[quote author=SoutheastRidge link=topic=2.msg508#msg508 date=1481146315]
[quote author=GaWx link=topic=2.msg506#msg506 date=1481146007]
[quote author=SD link=topic=2.msg501#msg501 date=1481145177]
This is realistically the coldest first half of December since 2010
Click to expand...

1) Good point. I'll go one further and say that there is almost no way that the first half of Dec. of 2016 won't easily be the coldest for the SE US as a whole since 2010.

2) ATL is about to have its single coldest Dec. day since 2010 and its biggest negative daily anomaly at least since Feb. of 2016. That is quite significant. However, a fair number of folks really only care about wintry precip., which is normally hard to get in Dec. (especially the first half). ATL has had only ~10" of SN/IP in total over the last 100 years in the first half of Dec., meaning an average of only 0.1"/first half of Dec. or only 5% of its total seasonal average. During that time, there was a major sleetstorm in 1918, the last time there was a major ATL DEC SN or IP. So, it is good to be realistic so as not to get hopes up too high. ATL has also had a couple of significant to major ZR's in the first half of Dec., but even that doesn't pick up in historical frequency til the last week of the month.
[/quote] When was the last time if EVER, that ATL had a major snowstorm in the first half of December ? I've lived in GA my entire life and never recall even seeing snow on the ground before Dec 15. So really, any cold before Dec 15 in GA is wasted cold air.
[/quote]
yet people would complain if it were hot in December vs cold

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[/quote] I would complain if it were hot the second half of December, but the first half of December no matter how cold it is we literally never get snow or ice so its basically pointless.
 
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