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Pattern December Discussion

whatalife link said:
I agree not the best of runs last night.


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They weren't horrible. I'm ok with the evolution  particularly on the euro. We could use some help in the north Atlantic

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December Discussion

SD link said:
[quote author=whatalife link=topic=2.msg169#msg169 date=1480861331]
I agree not the best of runs last night.


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They weren't horrible. I'm ok with the evolution  particularly on the euro. We could use some help in the north Atlantic

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[/quote]

I agree...But I'm slightly concerned w/EPS trying to make the AO and NAO go positive.


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Past the cold shot towards the end of the week, not a whole lot on deck.


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Since the models do 180s almost every run, let's get past next weekends cold shot, and see how things start to look!
 
SoutheastRidge link said:
We really need to cash in by next weekend. It may be our last chance this winter !
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The past few years February has been our big month.


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SoutheastRidge link said:
We really need to cash in by next weekend. It may be our last chance this winter !
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LOFL it's the first week in December. Cmon
 
NorthGaWinter link said:
Euro close to a good CAD at 240. Need stronger high
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Always 10 days out!! If the Euro run 12z, is right, cold won't be a problem! I don't care if it's cold and dry, that's a super cold look!
 
Tarheel1 link said:
[quote author=NorthGaWinter link=topic=2.msg185#msg185 date=1480878963]
Euro close to a good CAD at 240. Need stronger high
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Always 10 days out!! If the Euro run 12z, is right, cold won't be a problem! I don't care if it's cold and dry, that's a super cold look!
[/quote]
cross polar flow anyone??? If that's right, JB'S bathtub rubber duck theory would verify
94c7836ccf22d04e22053d2d932bccd7.jpg


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SoutheastRidge link said:
We really need to cash in by next weekend. It may be our last chance this winter !
Click to expand...

Using ATL as decent representation for the SE US: whereas they have had some significant first half of Dec. events during the last 100 years, they have occurred only about once every 15 years on average and I'd put only two in the major category: ZR of 12/2005, mainly northside, and the great sleetstorm of 12/1917. The nonmajor but significant events I could find in the first half of Dec. are 1.1" SN 1989, 1.1" IP/ZR combo 1971, 2.4" IP/SN occurring within 3 day period 1958, 0.7" SN 1937, and what appears to have been a moderate wintry event in 1929 though I don't have details on this one. So, I wouldn't see much significance at all if ATL and much of the SE US doesn't get a significant wintry event by 12/15.

ATL has had only a little over 10" of SN/IP in the first half of Dec. over the last 100 years combined. That means only a little over 0.1" on average for the first half of Dec. in addition to a significant ZR only about once every 30 years or so. The last half of Dec. picks up some with an average closer to 0.2" of SN/IP at ATL including a good bit higher frequency of ZR (major ZR alone every 20 years and that excludes some nonmajors of note).
 
So Euro has some wintry precip for the Carolinas next Sun/Mon!?
#Frontloaded
 
Tarheel1 link said:
So Euro has some wintry precip for the Carolinas next Sun/Mon!?
#Frontloaded
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no , nothing except for a litter in the higher elevations and even that's marginal at best

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[/quote]
cross polar flow anyone??? If that's right, JB'S bathtub rubber duck theory would verify
94c7836ccf22d04e22053d2d932bccd7.jpg


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[/quote]
That image is exactly what we are looking for in a winter pattern. Trough axis around the mouth of the Mississippi River and the Aleutians with a stout ridge along the west coast into Alaska. I even see what appears to be a 50/50 low reflection with a ridge poking into southern Greenland. Glad to see Santa finally got around to reading my letter...
 
Around the 15th of December, I'd expect to be tracking something with some confidence.  Noticed it gets a bit more conductive off and on with modeling by then.  Nothing for sure, just more "supportive" I should say.
 
Starburst link said:
Around the 15th of December, I'd expect to be tracking something with some confidence.  Noticed it gets a bit more conductive off and on with modeling by then.  Nothing for sure, just more "supportive" I should say.
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yep many have been pointing to mid month for a while now.  it would fit the pattern . I still say Arkansas. Tenn and NC would be favored

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Damn American model . why the hell does the gfs run four times a day. 18z is 100 percent different from 12z .

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