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Pattern December Discussion

Storm5 link said:
Damn American model . why the hell does the gfs run four times a day. 18z is 100 percent different from 12z .

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Oh how I love fantasy land...LOL!


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Re: December Discussion

Holy hell the 18z gfs is just like the 12z euro, nice cross polar flow .
21b31f2d3572a0c554a203fece2e1bf1.jpg


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I've given up looking at the GFS past 192.. and even that is a stretch.  I'll look at it for noted changes, ideas... then try to compare it with Euro/ensembles.. but man what a crap-shoot!  My over-excited weenism has been dying off the last couple years I guess.
 
Storm5 link said:
I hate the GFS and I hate weather

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Someone is in a sour mood and I do agree w/you about the GFS.


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whatalife link said:
Makes no sense the extremes between 12z and 18z


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absolutely pathetic as you said that we can't produce a better US model

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Re: December Discussion

Starburst link said:
I've given up looking at the GFS past 192.. and even that is a stretch.  I'll look at it for noted changes, ideas... then try to compare it with Euro/ensembles.. but man what a crap-shoot!  My over-excited weenism has been dying off the last couple years I guess.
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lol looking past 120 is foolish honestly but we all do it

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Storm5 link said:
[quote author=whatalife link=topic=2.msg211#msg211 date=1480892267]
Makes no sense the extremes between 12z and 18z


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absolutely pathetic as you said that we can't produce a better US model

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[/quote]

There will be 0 support from the GEFS.


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whatalife link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg218#msg218 date=1480893302]
[quote author=whatalife link=topic=2.msg211#msg211 date=1480892267]
Makes no sense the extremes between 12z and 18z


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absolutely pathetic as you said that we can't produce a better US model

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[/quote]

There will be 0 support from the GEFS.


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careful what you say . the gefs has been bouncing around with a wintry idea for about a week . but yeah it surely won't support that stupid run

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I would love for the 18z to somehow miraculously verify, but the inconsistency is just ridiculous, but it does look like mid month will def be fun for someone in the southern states.
 
whatalife link said:
[quote author=accu35 link=topic=2.msg216#msg216 date=1480892477]
Wow!!
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Not happening.


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[/quote] yeah it prob happen just because you said that
 
I love me some eye candy, sweet sugar candy canes with some egg nog to top it off.
 
Parker link said:
I would love for the 18z to somehow miraculously verify, but the inconsistency is just ridiculous, but it does look like mid month will def be fun for someone in the southern states.
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Yeah, I think at this point we have to look purely at the ensembles and the Euro. I agree with you about mid-month though.
 
whatalife link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg218#msg218 date=1480893302]
[quote author=whatalife link=topic=2.msg211#msg211 date=1480892267]
Makes no sense the extremes between 12z and 18z


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absolutely pathetic as you said that we can't produce a better US model

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[/quote]

There will be 0 support from the GEFS.


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[/quote]
Ummmm.. Wrong!
 
Tarheel1 link said:
[quote author=whatalife link=topic=2.msg220#msg220 date=1480893370]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg218#msg218 date=1480893302]
[quote author=whatalife link=topic=2.msg211#msg211 date=1480892267]
Makes no sense the extremes between 12z and 18z


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absolutely pathetic as you said that we can't produce a better US model

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[/quote]

There will be 0 support from the GEFS.


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[/quote]
Ummmm.. Wrong!
[/quote]

I'm ok w/that. LOL!


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Look we all won't cold and snow . But we also have to be realistic.  We are not getting anything like the 18z gfs . While fun to look at, it's not happening . Looking at the different model runs from day to day is fun. But what the model shows at the surface isn't important at all. The actual 500 mb pattern is the most important thing. What happens at the surface is a direct result of the H5 pattern .

With that said , as many have pointed to for a while now mid month seems to be the first POSSIBLE wintry threat for the southeast. I still say that favors Arkansas, Tennessee and NC . A strong push of arctic air could very well set the stage for a nice overrunning event with a slight SW flow . The only thing I'm looking for over the next week is to see how the pacific shapes up. Does our ridge build and hold? The last thing we need is to have lower heights build over the GOA , if that happens we are screwed and will have to wait for yet another pattern shuffle.

The GFS , EURO and GEFS are all showing a cross polar flow allowing the true arctic air to spill south. Below is what we want see with the ridge, up and over the top . We need that to verify and hold.
37bee1557244a88052eddc45105a67e9.jpg


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If the Euro is anywhere close to the latest GFS run then I don't wanna hear any talk of "winter cancel" at all.
 
the fact that the models are showing extreme cold in our side of the world is very exciting

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Storm5 link said:
the fact that the models are showing extreme cold in our side of the world is very exciting

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Yes it is, gfs has been showing more cold for us, then not. Good signs still
 
12z gfs going nuts again. this is some of the coldest air we've had on our side of globe in a long time
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The GFS has been consistent on future cold blasts. So has the Euro. Mid month is looking pretty interesting to say the least.
 
Another GFS run, another solution but holy hell the cross polar flow that's showing is amazing

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Re: December Discussion

the great news is that a cross polar flow keeps showing and the cold is gonna stay on our side of the globe for a while . we will see different solutions from run to run , like the 12z gfs torches us post truncation. But man its hard not get excited about all the cold on our side of the world for once

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Re: December Discussion

OMGD  the cold that starts in the upper midwest next week would absolutely historic . 50-70 degrees BELOW NORMAL!!!! Hot damn



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Storm5 link said:
OMGD  the cold that starts in the upper midwest next week would absolutely historic . 50-70 degrees BELOW NORMAL!!!! Hot damn

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Looks like it finally moved out of Russia!! Bring it! Kill the fire ants and mosquitos!
 
Close to a little something frozen for a few of us next week also, actually good HP placement and good storm track, if the high was tick stronger or had a little colder air to tap could be interesting for the CAD regions (the climo favored sections) possibly
 
Gotta give it to DT (seems he's getting better haha) .. he has a great video up and it's really helpful to those that don't quite understand different 500mb features and the potential pattern change that may come mid-month.  Around 5 min in, he gets into it. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9o0Dyx90yKA

I link this because 500mb is what matters.  Not the "systems and rain/snow lines" on the pretty maps.. as Storm has been saying.
 
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