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Pattern December Discussion

Yes! It was great to hear Joanne Feldman from Fox 5 Atlanta mention the cold air spilling into Georgia late next week. Can't wait!  :)
 
two southeast winter storm threats on the 00z gfs . Week of the 12th

weenie run

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I feel like somebody is getting some wintry threat is very possible for somebody in the SE by mid month.
 
Note that the Euro's MJO forecast has it mainly within the circle in early to mid Dec. Per my research of a couple years ago, the highest correlation to SE US winter cold has been when it was either within or just outside the circle (especially the left side), not when it is well outside the circle on the left side. For evidence, just look back at the MJO charts for winters back to 1975. That's how I found this out. Here is the Euro forecast:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_full.gif

That looks delicious for cold prospects.
 
12z gfs has cold chasing moisture on the 12th. Those don't usually workout but maybe we can get a surprise
 
12z gfs laid a turd that run screws the whole pattern . come back for 18z to see a different solution

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Canadian ends it's run with a huge CAD signal and lots of precip coming!!
 
The Canadian, actually has done pretty well on CAD events, the last couple of seasons
 
GaWx link said:
Note that the Euro's MJO forecast has it mainly within the circle in early to mid Dec. Per my research of a couple years ago, the highest correlation to SE US winter cold has been when it was either within or just outside the circle (especially the left side), not when it is well outside the circle on the left side. For evidence, just look back at the MJO charts for winters back to 1975. That's how I found this out. Here is the Euro forecast:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_full.gif

That looks delicious for cold prospects.
Click to expand...
Glad you are here! Valuable info as per usual!
 
Tarheel1 link said:
[quote author=GaWx link=topic=2.msg115#msg115 date=1480782615]
Note that the Euro's MJO forecast has it mainly within the circle in early to mid Dec. Per my research of a couple years ago, the highest correlation to SE US winter cold has been when it was either within or just outside the circle (especially the left side), not when it is well outside the circle on the left side. For evidence, just look back at the MJO charts for winters back to 1975. That's how I found this out. Here is the Euro forecast:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_full.gif

That looks delicious for cold prospects.
Click to expand...
Glad you are here! Valuable info as per usual!
[/quote]

Thank you! I never even had an inkling about this correlation until I did a detailed analysis. I was surprised to find this out. You'll often see MJO charts showing a cold correlation in the SE US for most of the MJO phases on the left side of the circle. What folks didn't realize, including myself before I did the analysis, is that these cold correlations are largely carried in the calculations by being either just outside or within the circle on the left side, which still count as phases 7-8-1-2. For those who don't realize this, all the circle represents is magnitude of 1.00. So, for example, a magnitude 0.75 phase 8 would be within the circle in the phase 8 pie slice of the circle.

Related to this, I found that all phases combined averaged about 4 F colder in the SE when inside the circle vs outside of it. The warmest on avg have been the far right phases (4 and 5) outside the circle, which averaged near 4-5 above normal. Within the circle, phases 4-5 actually averaged near normal. The coldest on avg, 5 below normal, is inside the circle within phases 7-8. However, even phases 1-3 inside the circle averaged 3 below normal while phase 6 was 2 below. When outside the circle, the so called cold phases 7-8-1-2 actually averaged near normal.

So, in summary, the best chance for an overall cold pattern is when within the circle, especially the left side. The best chance for warm is outside the circle, especially the right side. Left side overall has been colder than right side on average, which has been commonly known for many years based on published studies. Inside the circle has been colder than outside on average, a key that I've never seen mentioned in these same studies. If outside the circle, the chances for it to be cold are higher if just outside of it vs far outside of it.
 
12z euro has a winter storm for Tenn next sunday . huge difference vs the gfs

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Yeah storm, if we could get that low a little more south that could surprise a lot of us
 
Re: December Discussion

massive deference between the euro and gfs . gfs has more a frontal passage while the euro digs the trough a little more and develops an actual system

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Storm5 link said:
12z euro has a winter storm for Tenn next sunday . huge difference vs the gfs

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Click to expand...
If there was a model I wanted on my side, Euro would be it!
Players seem to be on the field, and give me cold first, all day, everyday! At least it's something to look at, after the most boring 2-3 months of weather in along time
 
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