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Pattern December Discussion

Re: December Discussion

Storm5 link said:
massive deference between the euro and gfs . gfs has more a frontal passage while the euro digs the trough a little more and develops an actual system

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Is the Euro showing a wave on the front?
 
Storm5 link said:
massive deference between the euro and gfs . gfs has more a frontal passage while the euro digs the trough a little more and develops an actual system

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That's so close we will find a way to blow it

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Holy hell the day ten euro has a nice cross polar flow and massive cold build up in candy . sweet
41c087aaafaa4c53307e16a0bf10bbe9.jpg


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Re: December Discussion

zero support from the eps

12z euro was on crack

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Gfs has cold chasing moisture around the 16th... bad run again.
 
NorthGaWinter link said:
Gfs has cold chasing moisture around the 16th... bad run again.
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not really a bad, much better than 12z
 
Lost in all of the excitement is the fact the models are putting down multiple inches of rain over the next 2 weeks.  I am just excited to get rain this week

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SD link said:
Lost in all of the excitement is the fact the models are putting down multiple inches of rain over the next 2 weeks.  I am just excited to get rain this week

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Yes sir nice rainy week ahead.  Wetter pattern, cooler pattern.... I like it!

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Too early to post pics of our ensemble member of choice? Lol

c949e096d56d0d47bb1b1ecc9e03c09d.jpg


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metwannabe link said:
Too early to post pics of our ensemble member of choice? Lol

c949e096d56d0d47bb1b1ecc9e03c09d.jpg


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I'll take that and close the book on this winter

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No doubt.  Lol.  I like the winter possibilities...It going to be great at times, and at times we torch I think.
 
SD link said:
[quote author=metwannabe link=topic=2.msg148#msg148 date=1480816858]
Too early to post pics of our ensemble member of choice? Lol

c949e096d56d0d47bb1b1ecc9e03c09d.jpg


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I'll take that and close the book on this winter

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I'm with you on that.... I love our chances for something similar to this to pan out between now and new year's. 

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Deltadog03 link said:
No doubt.  Lol.  I like the winter possibilities...It going to be great at times, and at times we torch I think.
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Agreed, It certainly shows some promise. I would like to see a continuation of the training highs coming down out of NW Canada.
 
Cad Wedge NC link said:
[quote author=Deltadog03 link=topic=2.msg157#msg157 date=1480818696]
No doubt.  Lol.  I like the winter possibilities...It going to be great at times, and at times we torch I think.
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Agreed, It certainly shows some promise. I would like to see a continuation of the training highs coming down out of NW Canada.
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Along with a continuation of the suddenly very active storm track and voila....we're in business. 

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Excited to see more rain over the next few days and some nice cold air towards the end of the week. Things are looking up and headed in a positive direction.


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Certainly not the best overnight runs but there are some positives there.

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whatalife link said:
I agree not the best of runs last night.


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They weren't horrible. I'm ok with the evolution  particularly on the euro. We could use some help in the north Atlantic

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December Discussion

SD link said:
[quote author=whatalife link=topic=2.msg169#msg169 date=1480861331]
I agree not the best of runs last night.


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They weren't horrible. I'm ok with the evolution  particularly on the euro. We could use some help in the north Atlantic

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I agree...But I'm slightly concerned w/EPS trying to make the AO and NAO go positive.


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Past the cold shot towards the end of the week, not a whole lot on deck.


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Since the models do 180s almost every run, let's get past next weekends cold shot, and see how things start to look!
 
SoutheastRidge link said:
We really need to cash in by next weekend. It may be our last chance this winter !
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The past few years February has been our big month.


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SoutheastRidge link said:
We really need to cash in by next weekend. It may be our last chance this winter !
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LOFL it's the first week in December. Cmon
 
NorthGaWinter link said:
Euro close to a good CAD at 240. Need stronger high
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Always 10 days out!! If the Euro run 12z, is right, cold won't be a problem! I don't care if it's cold and dry, that's a super cold look!
 
Tarheel1 link said:
[quote author=NorthGaWinter link=topic=2.msg185#msg185 date=1480878963]
Euro close to a good CAD at 240. Need stronger high
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Always 10 days out!! If the Euro run 12z, is right, cold won't be a problem! I don't care if it's cold and dry, that's a super cold look!
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cross polar flow anyone??? If that's right, JB'S bathtub rubber duck theory would verify
94c7836ccf22d04e22053d2d932bccd7.jpg


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SoutheastRidge link said:
We really need to cash in by next weekend. It may be our last chance this winter !
Click to expand...

Using ATL as decent representation for the SE US: whereas they have had some significant first half of Dec. events during the last 100 years, they have occurred only about once every 15 years on average and I'd put only two in the major category: ZR of 12/2005, mainly northside, and the great sleetstorm of 12/1917. The nonmajor but significant events I could find in the first half of Dec. are 1.1" SN 1989, 1.1" IP/ZR combo 1971, 2.4" IP/SN occurring within 3 day period 1958, 0.7" SN 1937, and what appears to have been a moderate wintry event in 1929 though I don't have details on this one. So, I wouldn't see much significance at all if ATL and much of the SE US doesn't get a significant wintry event by 12/15.

ATL has had only a little over 10" of SN/IP in the first half of Dec. over the last 100 years combined. That means only a little over 0.1" on average for the first half of Dec. in addition to a significant ZR only about once every 30 years or so. The last half of Dec. picks up some with an average closer to 0.2" of SN/IP at ATL including a good bit higher frequency of ZR (major ZR alone every 20 years and that excludes some nonmajors of note).
 
So Euro has some wintry precip for the Carolinas next Sun/Mon!?
#Frontloaded
 
Tarheel1 link said:
So Euro has some wintry precip for the Carolinas next Sun/Mon!?
#Frontloaded
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no , nothing except for a litter in the higher elevations and even that's marginal at best

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[/quote]
cross polar flow anyone??? If that's right, JB'S bathtub rubber duck theory would verify
94c7836ccf22d04e22053d2d932bccd7.jpg


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[/quote]
That image is exactly what we are looking for in a winter pattern. Trough axis around the mouth of the Mississippi River and the Aleutians with a stout ridge along the west coast into Alaska. I even see what appears to be a 50/50 low reflection with a ridge poking into southern Greenland. Glad to see Santa finally got around to reading my letter...
 
Around the 15th of December, I'd expect to be tracking something with some confidence.  Noticed it gets a bit more conductive off and on with modeling by then.  Nothing for sure, just more "supportive" I should say.
 
Starburst link said:
Around the 15th of December, I'd expect to be tracking something with some confidence.  Noticed it gets a bit more conductive off and on with modeling by then.  Nothing for sure, just more "supportive" I should say.
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yep many have been pointing to mid month for a while now.  it would fit the pattern . I still say Arkansas. Tenn and NC would be favored

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Damn American model . why the hell does the gfs run four times a day. 18z is 100 percent different from 12z .

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