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Pattern December Discussion

bigstick10 link said:
Yes the winter of 15/16 is closed.  I know u meant 16/17, but I disagree, I think we have a lot of surprises to get.  The negativity on here is amazing.
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LOL!


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Storm5 link said:
[quote author=SoutheastRidge link=topic=2.msg59#msg59 date=1480708391]
Please God let there be precip next Fri-Sun to go along with the cold temps. I get this feeling that if we don't score by Mid January we're not scoring at all this winter.
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I felt that way for the last few months but now I'm not so sure . especially if get a PV split again down the line. Analogs certainly don't look promising post mid january

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Well with the track record of analogs last couple of winters, that's good news to me.    Man 'ol man Winter is about to show up and it could not come at a better time, things really look promising moving forward.
 
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bigstick10 link said:
I disagree, I think we have a lot of surprises to get.  The negativity on here is amazing.
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no one is being negative they are giving their opinions

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Hope this is not a one and done, cold shot, and it has some staying power! It's fun getting arctic cold in place and score snow from the frontal band of the next Arctic front! If we could lock that pattern in for a few weeks and sneak a southern wave in the mix, we will be happy! Happy!Happy!
 
18z spits out a little frozen next Thursday along the arctic front
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hot damn the 18z gfs is close to popping a full blown gulf low next sunday. sharpen the trough and dig a little more
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Dec 12th-16th looks like a lot of potential fun on the table...


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18z gfs happy produces . it's close twice in the 11th-15th period . I said it this morning the week of the 12th for someone in the southeast....

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SD link said:
The gfs gives me the warm fuzzies

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The 0z, will give you the cold pricklies!
Everything is looking good, let's hope it works out! A cold rain this Sunday and a lot of the Carolinas will be stuck in low/mid 40s for highs! That should help the BN temps for the month and the following weekend, should help also
 
Tarheel1 link said:
[quote author=SD link=topic=2.msg88#msg88 date=1480721691]
The gfs gives me the warm fuzzies

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The 0z, will give you the cold pricklies!
Everything is looking good, let's hope it works out! A cold rain this Sunday and a lot of the Carolinas will be stuck in low/mid 40s for highs! That should help the BN temps for the month and the following weekend, should help also
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Yeah the next 10 days should average out below normal but Monday-Thursday will probably end up slightly positive because of warmer overnight lows. I find the evolution of the upcoming pattern fascinating because there is so much going on. Should be a fun month and I wouldn't be shocked to see a few snow flakes before Christmas but I'm not too high on that thought yet
 
Yes! It was great to hear Joanne Feldman from Fox 5 Atlanta mention the cold air spilling into Georgia late next week. Can't wait!  :)
 
two southeast winter storm threats on the 00z gfs . Week of the 12th

weenie run

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I feel like somebody is getting some wintry threat is very possible for somebody in the SE by mid month.
 
Note that the Euro's MJO forecast has it mainly within the circle in early to mid Dec. Per my research of a couple years ago, the highest correlation to SE US winter cold has been when it was either within or just outside the circle (especially the left side), not when it is well outside the circle on the left side. For evidence, just look back at the MJO charts for winters back to 1975. That's how I found this out. Here is the Euro forecast:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_full.gif

That looks delicious for cold prospects.
 
12z gfs has cold chasing moisture on the 12th. Those don't usually workout but maybe we can get a surprise
 
12z gfs laid a turd that run screws the whole pattern . come back for 18z to see a different solution

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Canadian ends it's run with a huge CAD signal and lots of precip coming!!
 
The Canadian, actually has done pretty well on CAD events, the last couple of seasons
 
GaWx link said:
Note that the Euro's MJO forecast has it mainly within the circle in early to mid Dec. Per my research of a couple years ago, the highest correlation to SE US winter cold has been when it was either within or just outside the circle (especially the left side), not when it is well outside the circle on the left side. For evidence, just look back at the MJO charts for winters back to 1975. That's how I found this out. Here is the Euro forecast:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_full.gif

That looks delicious for cold prospects.
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Glad you are here! Valuable info as per usual!
 
Tarheel1 link said:
[quote author=GaWx link=topic=2.msg115#msg115 date=1480782615]
Note that the Euro's MJO forecast has it mainly within the circle in early to mid Dec. Per my research of a couple years ago, the highest correlation to SE US winter cold has been when it was either within or just outside the circle (especially the left side), not when it is well outside the circle on the left side. For evidence, just look back at the MJO charts for winters back to 1975. That's how I found this out. Here is the Euro forecast:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_full.gif

That looks delicious for cold prospects.
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Glad you are here! Valuable info as per usual!
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Thank you! I never even had an inkling about this correlation until I did a detailed analysis. I was surprised to find this out. You'll often see MJO charts showing a cold correlation in the SE US for most of the MJO phases on the left side of the circle. What folks didn't realize, including myself before I did the analysis, is that these cold correlations are largely carried in the calculations by being either just outside or within the circle on the left side, which still count as phases 7-8-1-2. For those who don't realize this, all the circle represents is magnitude of 1.00. So, for example, a magnitude 0.75 phase 8 would be within the circle in the phase 8 pie slice of the circle.

Related to this, I found that all phases combined averaged about 4 F colder in the SE when inside the circle vs outside of it. The warmest on avg have been the far right phases (4 and 5) outside the circle, which averaged near 4-5 above normal. Within the circle, phases 4-5 actually averaged near normal. The coldest on avg, 5 below normal, is inside the circle within phases 7-8. However, even phases 1-3 inside the circle averaged 3 below normal while phase 6 was 2 below. When outside the circle, the so called cold phases 7-8-1-2 actually averaged near normal.

So, in summary, the best chance for an overall cold pattern is when within the circle, especially the left side. The best chance for warm is outside the circle, especially the right side. Left side overall has been colder than right side on average, which has been commonly known for many years based on published studies. Inside the circle has been colder than outside on average, a key that I've never seen mentioned in these same studies. If outside the circle, the chances for it to be cold are higher if just outside of it vs far outside of it.
 
12z euro has a winter storm for Tenn next sunday . huge difference vs the gfs

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Yeah storm, if we could get that low a little more south that could surprise a lot of us
 
Re: December Discussion

massive deference between the euro and gfs . gfs has more a frontal passage while the euro digs the trough a little more and develops an actual system

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Storm5 link said:
12z euro has a winter storm for Tenn next sunday . huge difference vs the gfs

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If there was a model I wanted on my side, Euro would be it!
Players seem to be on the field, and give me cold first, all day, everyday! At least it's something to look at, after the most boring 2-3 months of weather in along time
 
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