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Pattern December Discussion

Storm5 link said:
[quote author=SD link=topic=2.msg852#msg852 date=1481302035]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg847#msg847 date=1481301923]
December to remember , shorts at Christmas

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[/quote]
I'll save this one for  when you have 33 and rain

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[/quote]

At least Ill have rain
 
Storm5 link said:
[quote author=SD link=topic=2.msg852#msg852 date=1481302035]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg847#msg847 date=1481301923]
December to remember , shorts at Christmas

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Vq5djeWOqbmSc.gif

[/quote]
I'll save this one for  when you have 33 and rain

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[/quote]

stone-cold-laughing-o.gif
 
I say we go with the Canadian. They should know more about snow and ice than us. :D
 
NorthGaWinter link said:
Canadian has been very consistent with that CAD!
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it was consistent with a hurricane every week during hurricane season. that worked out well.

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Storm5 link said:
[quote author=NorthGaWinter link=topic=2.msg860#msg860 date=1481302437]
Canadian has been very consistent with that CAD!
Click to expand...
it was consistent with a hurricane every week during hurricane season. that worked out well.

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[/quote]

What do they know about hurricanes, though? Snow and ice is their thing.
 
ATLWxFan link said:
There is no model reliability beyond a week.


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Sometimes 12 to 24 hours out is pushing it when it comes to the models getting winter weather right around here. The best they can do is show a chance. Sometimes the chance is better than others, but still doesn't mean we're going to get a win out of it.
 
Re: December Discussion

fear not the 06z gfs para will save us . back to back winter storm threats next weekend 
3340fa3e7cccc04084a2cb85adb438b6.jpg

through the 19th
2d5bb3e4bbab35c109dbb25dc1bdb695.jpg

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Para looks good. Hey, it only runs twice a day, right? Less chance of getting it wrong. :D
 
Brick Tamland link said:
Para looks good. Hey, it only runs twice a day right? Less chance of getting it wrong. :D
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no its running every cycle now

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Re: December Discussion

Just lmao. I ain't putting the shorts away.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_52.png

your in the best location out of anyone currently
 
Larry.... December ice storms are kinda rare, correct? Gfs para, CMC and euro all hinting at a CAD setup with blazing 850s
 
NorthGaWinter link said:
Larry.... December ice storms are kinda rare, correct? Gfs para, CMC and euro all hinting at a CAD setup with blazing 850s
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Not Larry, but Dec 2002 ice storm in the Carolinas, was worst I've ever seen.
 
Storm5 link said:
that's a horrible ice storm on the gem

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8-10 day gem, is like A 60 hour NAM! Lol
 
Tarheel1 link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg865#msg865 date=1481302639]
that's a horrible ice storm on the gem

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8-10 day gem, is like A 60 hour NAM! Lol
[/quote]
this^^^^^^^^

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Brick Tamland link said:
[quote author=SD link=topic=2.msg874#msg874 date=1481303237]
The GFS on Christmas morning made my pants tight
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Details? About the GFS, not the pants tightening.
[/quote]

1043 over New England and moisture building from the deep south. Looks like what would be a miller b ice storm in the making for CAD areas
 
GEFS mute the SE ridge quite a bit vs 0z

Meh still there but oriented differently. Gets beaten down a little more
 
Re: December Discussion

Holy hell the 12z gefs is very supportive of a wintry threat the 17th-19th. mainly for Arkansas tenn, and NC . Some members get the cad going for NE georgia

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Sounds like some fun for next weekend is definitely still on the table.
 
Re: December Discussion

Storm5 link said:
Holy hell the 12z gefs is very supportive of a wintry threat the 17th-19th. mainly for Arkansas tenn, and NC . Some members get the cad going for NE georgia

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Thats a pretty classic wedge signature
 
whatalife link said:
When in doubt go with the model you like best...LOL!


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That's why I like the Brazillian and UKMET! :)
 
Re: December Discussion

SD link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg884#msg884 date=1481304773]
Holy hell the 12z gefs is very supportive of a wintry threat the 17th-19th. mainly for Arkansas tenn, and NC . Some members get the cad going for NE georgia

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Click to expand...

Thats a pretty classic wedge signature
[/quote]
All the snowcover building up north , should help with any wedges and we know the models almost always underestimate the strength anyway
 
Storm5 link said:
[quote author=whatalife link=topic=2.msg889#msg889 date=1481305485]
14d8e1206e0c7d99a07cd4c1f455d4ea.jpg



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incredible mean

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[/quote]

And that's an icy mean at that!


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Not that it matters to me, but can someone post cmc ice storm image
 
NorthGaWinter link said:
Larry.... December ice storms are kinda rare, correct? Gfs para, CMC and euro all hinting at a CAD setup with blazing 850s
Click to expand...

Speaking for ATL, itself, major ice storms are kind of rare in early to mid Dec. though there was a major one in north ATL in mid Dec. of 2005 and a significant one in early Dec. of 1971. Also, there was a huge sleet storm in mid Dec. of 1917. But though they are far from unheard of, they are pretty rare. They pick up in frequency during the last week of Dec. For example, Christmas has had major ice on three occasions!

For NC/SC/GA major CAD areas in general: here are the dates of major DEC ZR in parts or all of this area just for 1950-2005, alone:

12/3 (ATL got mix of mainly ZR and IP), 12/4-5 (this was 2002...ATL got mix of ZR and R and was no big deal), 12/6, 12/8, 12/14-15 (N ATL got major ZR), 12/20, 12/23 (ATL got mainly light IP/SN instead), 12/25 (ATL got major ZR), 12/25, 12/31 (ATL got mainly SN/IP, not ZR), 12/31
 
GaWx link said:
[quote author=NorthGaWinter link=topic=2.msg877#msg877 date=1481303460]
Larry.... December ice storms are kinda rare, correct? Gfs para, CMC and euro all hinting at a CAD setup with blazing 850s
Click to expand...

Speaking for ATL, itself, major ice storms are kind of rare in early to mid Dec. though there was a major one in north ATL in mid Dec. of 2005 and a significant one in early Dec. of 1971. Also, there was a huge sleet storm in mid Dec. of 1917. But though they are far from unheard of, they are pretty rare. They pick up in frequency during the last week of Dec. For example, Christmas has had major ice on three occasions!

For NC/SC/GA major CAD areas in general: here are the dates of major DEC ZR in parts or all of this area just for 1950-2005, alone:

12/3 (ATL got mix of mainly ZR and IP), 12/4-5 (ATL got mix of ZR and R and was no big deal), 12/6, 12/8, 12/14-15 (N ATL got major ZR), 12/20, 12/23 (ATL got mainly light IP/SN instead), 12/25 (ATL got major ZR), 12/25, 12/31 (ATL got mainly SN/IP, not ZR), 12/31
[/quote]

Hey Larry. Have you found there is more ZR in a -EPO vs. -NAO or does that matter? The last ice storm we had at least in my area in 2014 was during a -EPO. It seems that a -NAO helps deliver more snow due to the setup.
 
GaStorm link said:
[quote author=GaWx link=topic=2.msg895#msg895 date=1481307339]
[quote author=NorthGaWinter link=topic=2.msg877#msg877 date=1481303460]
Larry.... December ice storms are kinda rare, correct? Gfs para, CMC and euro all hinting at a CAD setup with blazing 850s
Click to expand...

Speaking for ATL, itself, major ice storms are kind of rare in early to mid Dec. though there was a major one in north ATL in mid Dec. of 2005 and a significant one in early Dec. of 1971. Also, there was a huge sleet storm in mid Dec. of 1917. But though they are far from unheard of, they are pretty rare. They pick up in frequency during the last week of Dec. For example, Christmas has had major ice on three occasions!

For NC/SC/GA major CAD areas in general: here are the dates of major DEC ZR in parts or all of this area just for 1950-2005, alone:

12/3 (ATL got mix of mainly ZR and IP), 12/4-5 (ATL got mix of ZR and R and was no big deal), 12/6, 12/8, 12/14-15 (N ATL got major ZR), 12/20, 12/23 (ATL got mainly light IP/SN instead), 12/25 (ATL got major ZR), 12/25, 12/31 (ATL got mainly SN/IP, not ZR), 12/31
[/quote]

Hey Larry. Have you found there is more ZR in a -EPO vs. -NAO or does that matter? The last ice storm we had at least in my area in 2014 was during a -EPO. It seems that a -NAO helps deliver more snow due to the setup.
[/quote]

For major ATL ZR's: I've never analyzed with regard to EPO. I have found no correlation to monthly -NAO. A monthly -NAO seems to help a little more for SN though even that correlation isn't strong. There MAY be a slight correlation of major ZR to -PDO (not +PDO). But the strongest correlation for major ZR to an index that I've found so far is to a neutral negative ENSO, which we currently have.
 
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