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Pattern December Discussion

Re: December Discussion

12z euro wants nothing to do with the NC threat  dry frontal passage . damn it's cold this run

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Glancing over it on a small screen, looks like the system gets crushed by the high around the 15th.
 
Temps are close at 168, like i said I'm looking at crappy maps, but low is there
 
Love the arctic blast on the 12z Euro...No real threat through 198 hrs...


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I'm afraid we are going to use up all of our cold supply this month and not be left with much the rest of the winter. Let's hope and pray a miracle occurs and somehow at some point the cold and moisture will meet up. Otherwise, it's going to be a lot of wasted cold air
 
Starburst link said:
Glancing over it on a small screen, looks like the system gets crushed by the high around the 15th.
Click to expand...
hardly a system there

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489 heights just taking a visit to the lakes. nothing to see here. rofl
 
Storm5 link said:
[quote author=Starburst link=topic=2.msg465#msg465 date=1481136382]
Glancing over it on a small screen, looks like the system gets crushed by the high around the 15th.
Click to expand...
hardly a system there

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[/quote]

GFS comes in more amplified and the Euro comes in flatter. Go figure.
 
NorthGaWinter link said:
Temps are close at 168, like i said I'm looking at crappy maps, but low is there
Click to expand...
I'd hardly call that a low
1825008e50b6d686b7fd2b91b832c44c.jpg


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12 z euro has a system day ten moving into moderating cold air . a little wedge is in place but even those places are already close to freezing and warming. nice cold shot headed in at the end of that run. but that's all noise so far out

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I just don't like how it warms up so fast. 16 in Birmingham one morning and 27 the next morning. We need to somehow find a way to get cold air locked down here.
 
SoutheastRidge link said:
I just don't like how it warms up so fast. 16 in Birmingham one morning and 27 the next morning. We need to somehow find a way to get cold air locked down here.
Click to expand...
the euro is a reloading pattern . end of the run another blast is on the way. Given the northern hemisphere pattern at 500 mb we are not gonna lock cold in down our way. what we will do is lock it in on our side of the world which is a huge victory and 180 degrees different from this time last year

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Storm5 link said:
[quote author=SoutheastRidge link=topic=2.msg479#msg479 date=1481139140]
I just don't like how it warms up so fast. 16 in Birmingham one morning and 27 the next morning. We need to somehow find a way to get cold air locked down here.
Click to expand...
the euro is a reloading pattern . end of the run another blast is on the way. Given the northern hemisphere pattern at 500 mb we are not gonna lock cold in down our way. what we will do is lock it in on our side of the world which is a huge victory and 180 degrees different from this time last year

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[/quote] locking in on our side of the world, will that give us more chances at strong cold fronts vrs regular ftonts
 
I mean you would think all the snow pack north of us gives us better "substantial" fronts? Im still learning
 
Re: December Discussion

accu35 link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg480#msg480 date=1481139448]
[quote author=SoutheastRidge link=topic=2.msg479#msg479 date=1481139140]
I just don't like how it warms up so fast. 16 in Birmingham one morning and 27 the next morning. We need to somehow find a way to get cold air locked down here.
Click to expand...
the euro is a reloading pattern . end of the run another blast is on the way. Given the northern hemisphere pattern at 500 mb we are not gonna lock cold in down our way. what we will do is lock it in on our side of the world which is a huge victory and 180 degrees different from this time last year

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
[/quote] locking in on our side of the world, will that give us more chances at strong cold fronts vrs regular ftonts
[/quote]
It just makes it easier to tap the cold source. Its alot easier to make lemonade out of lemons when they are close by. Does not mean we see stronger cold fronts verbatim.  Problem with the pattern is, it's not a typical winter weather pattern for the SE ( if there is such a thing). In this type of pattern we need to watch for overrunning along the arctic front or an embedded shortwave that rides the flow across the country . Problem with that idea is , more than likely it passes north of the region , kinda like the 12z euro is showing at day ten.

The midweek setup on the euro is tricky. the cold blast is too strong and really crushes any possible wave that develops. Ok, so we want a weaker cold shot to allow for amplification?  Then your running the risk of temps being too warm. Life in the southeast .

The question becomes what happens to the pattern towards christmas. No doubt it's gonna break and be warmer but what happens after that? Do we build higher heights in the west? What does the AO/NAO do?? Does the PV start to strengthen and head towards the pole? If that happens the brutal cold in Canada will modify . Only thing I like at this point is the cold is on our side world currently. How long does it stay is the question

I'll say it again , this type of pattern favors the upper southeast . Arkansas ,Tenn and NC. Does that mean we can't wintry down our way ? No , but the chances are not very good
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Re: December Discussion

Storm5 link said:
[quote author=accu35 link=topic=2.msg481#msg481 date=1481139793]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg480#msg480 date=1481139448]
[quote author=SoutheastRidge link=topic=2.msg479#msg479 date=1481139140]
I just don't like how it warms up so fast. 16 in Birmingham one morning and 27 the next morning. We need to somehow find a way to get cold air locked down here.
Click to expand...
the euro is a reloading pattern . end of the run another blast is on the way. Given the northern hemisphere pattern at 500 mb we are not gonna lock cold in down our way. what we will do is lock it in on our side of the world which is a huge victory and 180 degrees different from this time last year

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
[/quote] locking in on our side of the world, will that give us more chances at strong cold fronts vrs regular ftonts
[/quote]
It just makes it easier to tap the cold source. Its alot easier to make lemonade out of lemons when they are close by. Does not mean we see stronger cold fronts verbatim.  Problem with the pattern is, it's not a typical winter weather pattern for the SE ( if there is such a thing). In this type of pattern we need to watch for overrunning along the arctic front or an embedded shortwave that rides the flow across the country . Problem with that idea is , more than likely it passes north of the region , kinda like the 12z euro is showing at day ten.

The midweek setup on the euro is tricky. the cold blast is too strong and really crushes any possible wave that develops. Ok, so we want a weaker cold shot to allow for amplification?  Then your running the risk of temps being too warm. Life in the southeast .

The question becomes what happens to the pattern towards christmas. No doubt it's gonna break and be warmer but what happens after that? Do we build higher heights in the west? What does the AO/NAO do?? Does the PV start to strengthen and head towards the pole? If that happens the brutal cold in Canada will modify . Only thing I like at this point is the cold is on our side world currently. How long does it stay is the question

I'll say it again , this type of pattern favors the upper southeast . Arkansas ,Tenn and NC. Does that mean we can't wintry down our way ? No , but the chances are not very good
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[/quote] Well that is downright depressing. The fact that there's so much cold air moving to the south and we still can't cash in pretty much makes me want to give up hope on this winter. I've said it once and i'll say it again... Living between I-10 and the TN line is the worst place for snow lovers unless you live in the mountains. We get teased so much it's not even funny. We get about as much snow as Miami but they get to have nice and warm weather all winter long while we are left cold and dry. If you like cold weather, sure we are in a better location than Florida. But if you like snow, doesn't make a difference whether you're in Key West or Atlanta.
 
SoutheastRidge link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg483#msg483 date=1481140517]
[quote author=accu35 link=topic=2.msg481#msg481 date=1481139793]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg480#msg480 date=1481139448]
[quote author=SoutheastRidge link=topic=2.msg479#msg479 date=1481139140]
I just don't like how it warms up so fast. 16 in Birmingham one morning and 27 the next morning. We need to somehow find a way to get cold air locked down here.
Click to expand...
the euro is a reloading pattern . end of the run another blast is on the way. Given the northern hemisphere pattern at 500 mb we are not gonna lock cold in down our way. what we will do is lock it in on our side of the world which is a huge victory and 180 degrees different from this time last year

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
[/quote] locking in on our side of the world, will that give us more chances at strong cold fronts vrs regular ftonts
[/quote]
It just makes it easier to tap the cold source. Its alot easier to make lemonade out of lemons when they are close by. Does not mean we see stronger cold fronts verbatim.  Problem with the pattern is, it's not a typical winter weather pattern for the SE ( if there is such a thing). In this type of pattern we need to watch for overrunning along the arctic front or an embedded shortwave that rides the flow across the country . Problem with that idea is , more than likely it passes north of the region , kinda like the 12z euro is showing at day ten.

The midweek setup on the euro is tricky. the cold blast is too strong and really crushes any possible wave that develops. Ok, so we want a weaker cold shot to allow for amplification?  Then your running the risk of temps being too warm. Life in the southeast .

The question becomes what happens to the pattern towards christmas. No doubt it's gonna break and be warmer but what happens after that? Do we build higher heights in the west? What does the AO/NAO do?? Does the PV start to strengthen and head towards the pole? If that happens the brutal cold in Canada will modify . Only thing I like at this point is the cold is on our side world currently. How long does it stay is the question

I'll say it again , this type of pattern favors the upper southeast . Arkansas ,Tenn and NC. Does that mean we can't wintry down our way ? No , but the chances are not very good
Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
[/quote] Well that is downright depressing. The fact that there's so much cold air moving to the south and we still can't cash in pretty much makes me want to give up hope on this winter.
[/quote]
winter just started no reason to give up. It's not doom and gloom and all. We just need a little suffer at H5 to get us in a better pattern for wintry weather . I'm not saying it can't or won't happen for someone late next week . I just think the odds are pretty low at this point if you live south of Tennessee

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