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Pattern December Discussion

If the cold gets locked we generally lose our moisture supply. That's the last thing we want. Give me active and variable all season long.


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Storm5 link said:
you are rihht brick.this idea of locked cold gets brought up every year and its ridiculous.  we don't need to lock cold in. some of the biggest se storms have come on the front end or tail end of a pattern change . I can't remember a winter storm for my area where we had snow or ice and the cold stayed around for a while . I'd does benefit us to keep the cold on our side of globe. makes things so much easier.

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I agree with both of you guys and the last snow that I got it was 60° the day before and the next day I had 4.5" of snow on the ground.


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Just like 93 bliz had temps for a week or so in the 70s spring like weather with flowers blooming grass growing, and the next day over a foot of snow at my house with temps in the teens
 
Living in the south we should always, always expect weather swings.
 
ATLWxFan link said:
If the cold gets locked we generally lose our moisture supply. That's the last thing we want. Give me active and variable all season long.


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That's what I want to see, too. Not sure where the idea came from if we don't have arctic blasts that last a week then it's all doom and gloom for winter. But it seems like a few on these weather boards think that way.
 
Brick Tamland link said:
Yeah, I don't ever recall getting a winter storm here when it has been really cold for a while before the storm hit. Usually the temps cold enough for a storm come for 2 or 3 days at most. Anytime we've had a period longer than a few days with highs below freezing it's just cold and dry. I think the week before the Carolina Crusher there was a day it hit 70. So, I just don't get this idea we have to have sustained cold for a good storm here.
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It definitely helps statistically to get like a 4-5 day period of cold but the key is usually that the cold not be very intense in advance of a storm. It is best that the several day period of cold be more like 8- 15 degrees colder than normal from the bottom of a glancing blow and absolutely not something like a peak cold of 20+ colder than normal, which usually means little chance for a major storm due to it being an Arctic plunge. I've done an extensive search through SE US daily temperature records since the late 1800's to determine this. Whereas there'd be a good chance for flurries or even a fairly small accumulation with a deep Arctic plunge, there's little chance for a significant to major widespread upper SE winter storm when it is deep because that usually means there is too rapid warming on the backside of an Arctic high due to much warmer SE winds as the moisture returns. A much better scenario is a wide strong Arctic high with a center that tracks well to our north (say, in the Midwest) but which has its southern end into the SE US. That allows the best shot at a big storm as Gulf moisture is able to return over the top of the southern end of the Arctic airmass as opposed to having to wait for a deeply plunging high to bodily move offshore.
 
Judah Cohen calling for a lovely southeast ridge next week amidst all this silly PV talk.


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ATLWxFan link said:
Judah Cohen calling for a lovely southeast ridge next week amidst all this silly PV talk.


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You can't disagree with some SE ridge bubbling as the pattern goes into what looks like pretty climo favored for a nina with the GLAAM tanking and the GWO going from P1-2 which leads to shots of cold with above normal warmth and rain in between. It also favors a significant winter storm or 2 for the Arklatex region through western Tn into Kentucky.

So your wildcard/players become the EPO ridge, PV, SE ridge and how do they all interact. Does the ridge in the pacific and near Canada grow enough and displace east so that the vorticies in Canada are far enough south and east so they can suppress the SE ridge which would put us in line for wintry weather or is the pacific ridge weaker/west allowing the PV to be farther from the region so you get more of a SE ridge response
 
ATLWxFan link said:
Judah Cohen calling for a lovely southeast ridge next week amidst all this silly PV talk.


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well that's good seeing as how he hasn't been right in the last three years

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GaWx link said:
[quote author=Brick Tamland link=topic=2.msg813#msg813 date=1481292521]
Yeah, I don't ever recall getting a winter storm here when it has been really cold for a while before the storm hit. Usually the temps cold enough for a storm come for 2 or 3 days at most. Anytime we've had a period longer than a few days with highs below freezing it's just cold and dry. I think the week before the Carolina Crusher there was a day it hit 70. So, I just don't get this idea we have to have sustained cold for a good storm here.
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It definitely helps statistically to get like a 4-5 day period of cold but the key is usually that the cold not be very intense in advance of a storm. It is best that the several day period of cold be more like 8- 15 degrees colder than normal from the bottom of a glancing blow and absolutely not something like a peak cold of 20+ colder than normal, which usually means little chance for a major storm due to it being an Arctic plunge. I've done an extensive search through SE US daily temperature records since the late 1800's to determine this. Whereas there'd be a good chance for flurries or even a fairly small accumulation with a deep Arctic plunge, there's little chance for a significant to major widespread upper SE winter storm when it is deep because that usually means there is too rapid warming on the backside of an Arctic high due to much warmer SE winds as the moisture returns. A much better scenario is a wide strong Arctic high with a center that tracks well to our north (say, in the Midwest) but which has its southern end into the SE US. That allows the best shot at a big storm as Gulf moisture is able to return over the top of the southern end of the Arctic airmass as opposed to having to wait for a deeply plunging high to bodily move offshore.
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agree, I figured you would come along with some stats. your the man Larry

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That being said about major plunges to 20+ below normal not usually being favorable for big winter storms to follow, there are obvious exceptions like Snowjam 1982 in Atlanta. In this case, the center of the high did plunge into TX although it then moved NE into the lower Midwest and then into the NE US instead of moving eastward into the SE US. So the warmup was slow as SE winds didn't come in to warm things up quickly. Instead winds shifted to a still chilly NE wind.

http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/dwm/1982/19820111-19820117.djvu

Also, if there is a major plunge of Arctic air deep enough into the SE US, that does give a better shot at a very rare deep, coastal SE winter storm like December of 1989 though it missed the well inland SE:

http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/dwm/1989/19891218-19891224.djvu
 
Storm5 link said:
[quote author=ATLWxFan link=topic=2.msg822#msg822 date=1481294523]
Judah Cohen calling for a lovely southeast ridge next week amidst all this silly PV talk.


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well that's good seeing as how he hasn't been right in the last three years

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I was about to say the same thing.  ;D
 
A low amplitude MJO is still in the EPS forecast, which tends to be favorable for an overall chilly weather pattern as per MJO history:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_full.gif
 
With an active pattern and frequent cold shots that lays the ground work for a short lead time type system to develop, some piece of energy left behind or diving in on the heels of an exiting system and with that cold on our side of the globe, good arctic fronts moving through there is the obvious potential for an overrunning system somewhere...

That's my call... one good wintry threat/system that doesn't get picked up by the models in the lr and one good overrunning system.  Give me that and I'm happy!
 
metwannabe link said:
With an active pattern and frequent cold shots that lays the ground work for a short lead time type system to develop, some piece of energy left behind or diving in on the heels of an exiting system and with that cold on our side of the globe, good arctic fronts moving through there is the obvious potential for an overrunning system somewhere...

That's my call... one good wintry threat/system that doesn't get picked up by the models in the lr and one good overrunning system.  Give me that and I'm happy!
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Bingo! Like a wave popping on the Arctic front, and you get about 1-2 days notice , at most!
 
Bob chill over at AMWX just mentioned a possible CAD overrunning event? First I've heard about this. 84 hours out on the EPS
 
GainesvilleWX link said:
Bob chill over at AMWX just mentioned a possible CAD overrunning event? First I've heard about this. 84 hours out on the EPS
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8-10 days out
 
Storm5 link said:
surprise surprise the 12z gfs is much different

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gomer.jpg
 
SD link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg833#msg833 date=1481300734]
surprise surprise the 12z gfs is much different

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Much less SE ridge
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This run could get interesting
 
Re: December Discussion

Storm5 link said:
we jumped the gun here comes mega ridge
b7084abdaa8904862af42a92b5611db7.jpg


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Yep I was just about to say....  "or not"
 
Next weekend we have cold air in place and a pretty disturbed northern gulf....hmmm - bah humbug :mad:
 
Supershow link said:
Next weekend we have cold air in place and a pretty disturbed northern gulf....hmmm
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Sometimes these misses just set up things down the road.
 
No help in the north atlantic. Our best options are that low off of the Ca coast retrogrades under the Alaskan ridge or it kicks out fully with the trough crossing the US in front of it. Slowly moving onto the west coast like it does means SE ridge
 
To me this looks more like the Para with the cold and dry pattern - lets see where this goes 10 days from now...yes, I am reaching at this point
 
Storm5 link said:
I stopped watching , what a horrible run .

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Probably a good choice. We are seeing 30-50 degree swings between model runs post day 5 so obviously there is a ton of volatility and uncertainty.
 
Supershow link said:
To me this looks more like the Para with the cold and dry pattern - lets see where this goes 10 days from now...yes, I am reaching at this point
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the 12z gfs looks nothing like anything the para has shown

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CMC still showing a potential ice threat for the CAD areas down into NE Ga around the 18th...
 
SD link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg843#msg843 date=1481301674]
I stopped watching , what a horrible run .

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Probably a good choice. We are seeing 30-50 degree swings between model runs post day 5 so obviously there is a ton of volatility and uncertainty.
[/quote]
JB'S bath water is head towards the drain

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metwannabe link said:
CMC still showing a potential ice threat for the CAD areas down into NE Ga around the 18th...
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nothing a day ten Canadian threat to save the day. lol .

gfs had a nice cad setup just no moisture

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SD link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg843#msg843 date=1481301674]
I stopped watching , what a horrible run .

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Probably a good choice. We are seeing 30-50 degree swings between model runs post day 5 so obviously there is a ton of volatility and uncertainty.
[/quote]

It seems we do this every winter. The models are so different from each other, and even the same model has wild swings from run to run.
 
SD link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg847#msg847 date=1481301923]
December to remember , shorts at Christmas

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Vq5djeWOqbmSc.gif

[/quote]
I'll save this one for  when you have 33 and rain

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