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Pattern December - Deal or No Deal?

12z CMC has the idea, too strong of a northern stream, it's shearing out that energy down across the GOM, keeping it from developing into a healthy low. Of course, the looks of this will change. Look how soild that western ridge is though, if any low does develop, it would definitely would be a text book Miller A, or a southern slider. The storm could amp up as well, depending on if there will be any high latitude blocking. It's possible the PNA could have a massive positive spike over the coming days.
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Yeah, a few years ago we had a very warm, muggy Christmas with fresh fire ant hills everywhere and some trees were budding
 
John Cessarich noted that cold air hanging out in southeastern Canada..somebody’s been model watching! He looked giddy like he wanted to share with the public the long range outlook
 
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Don’t worry, if we get a storm it will make its own cold air
 
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Don’t worry, if we get a storm it will make its own cold air[/QUOTE]


I'm probably alone when I say this, but I approve of this map. Above normal temps in December doesn't feel all that bad ! Now if this were July, that map would be looking ugly ! I'm sure all the golfers out there wouldn't mind some warmth ;)
 
Im kinda surprised the west coast of FL doesnt get more ocean effect snow. You would think those cold northerly winds coming off the Gulf would produce snow more often, kinda like how cold air moving over the Great Lakes produce Lake Effect Snow.
I remember when that Christmas Snow of 04 went through south TX and just south of here there was lake effect snow coming off of Lake Pontchartrain over New Orleans. But you're right, that's kinda rare in these latitudes.
 
I guess the 18z FV3 couldn’t handle the amount of accumulating snowfall for the Deep South on Christmas and just froze up.
 
John Cessarich ain’t looking at no model that shows cold! He’s lost his weenie status with me! And y’all thinking this SSW/polar vortex voodoo crap , is gonna bring the goods as far as cold and snow for Jan/Feb, good luck with that! May as well hug the Eurasian snowcover theory too, and yeah, let me show you my wooly worm! SMDH
 
John Cessarich ain’t looking at no model that shows cold! He’s lost his weenie status with me! And y’all thinking this SSW/polar vortex voodoo crap , is gonna bring the goods as far as cold and snow for Jan/Feb, good luck with that! May as well hug the Eurasian snowcover theory too, and yeah, let me show you my wooly worm! SMDH
We don’t get below freezing for the duration of the 10 day extended forecast. Hard to accumulate snow with temps in the mid 60’s :( Boone is only a 3 hour drive so it will be ok I guess
 
John Cessarich ain’t looking at no model that shows cold! He’s lost his weenie status with me! And y’all thinking this SSW/polar vortex voodoo crap , is gonna bring the goods as far as cold and snow for Jan/Feb, good luck with that! May as well hug the Eurasian snowcover theory too, and yeah, let me show you my wooly worm! SMDH

Are you ok?
 
That’s a phase between northern and southern streams?


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No, it doesn't look like it. There's interaction with both disturbances, so, it's not really a full phase. The track of low on the CMC is an indication of a Miller A track, it's not quite there though. I took a look at the sfc temps. and they are in the 30s/40s. 850 temps aren't quite there either. It could trend colder and colder and we end up with a EC snowstorm. A complete phase is still possible.
 
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