Pattern December - Deal or No Deal?

[Tarheel1]

Still no cold press, so they are going to cut or be apps runners. We will have to take quite a few of these in the next couple of weeks, until the pattern changes

 

[TheBatman]

Still no cold press, so they are going to cut or be apps runners. We will have to take quite a few of these in the next couple of weeks, until the pattern changes

Yea, hopefully one of them will set us up nicely.

 

[Arcc]

Here we go.

 

[DadOfJax]

Here we go.

Right up the old stovepipe....couldn't look any better!

 

[mrdaddyman]

View attachment 9126View attachment 9127

The GL Low is back for a visit. It's the destroyer of winter storm dreams, LOL.

 

[Kylo]

The GEFS got into the egg nog already. Though the EPS ain't far off this look. I guess we shouldn't start drooling over the snowfall mean just yet until we get a few more runs that bullish.

 

[whatalife]

Well the GFS and FV3 couldn’t be more different at the end of there runs. So choose your camp.

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[DadOfJax]

Well the GFS and FV3 couldn’t be more different at the end of there runs. So choose your camp.

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Should be an easy decision considering how they performed last event coupled with the fact that the FV3 is replacing the GFS soon.

 

[Arcc]

The GL Low is back for a visit. It's the destroyer of winter storm dreams, LOL.

Winter myth #3.

 

[Arcc]

Hmm GFS and FV3 is close for the 250-270hr frame.

 

[TheBatman]

Hmm GFS and FV3 is close for the 250-270hr frame.

Yea it’s nice that both models are pointing to something in the Christmas timeframe.

 

[Tarheel1]

The GL Low is back for a visit. It's the destroyer of winter storm dreams, LOL.

It can’t block cold air transport, if there’s no cold air!

 

[GaStorm]

Well the GFS and FV3 couldn’t be more different at the end of there runs. So choose your camp.

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Funny how the GFS tries to correct it's cold bias all these years by showing warm before it's retired lol. FV3 will win!

 

[Jessy89]

In the active pattern we have. You just never know when a storm may pop up. Could be 10 days out 7 days out heck even 3 days out wouldn’t surprise me. But realistically it’s probably going to be January before we have a legitimate winter storm threat.


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[Tarheel1]

TWC just showed the Christmas “ pattern “ they are seeing and they had a SE ridge and central plains trough! That just screams white Christmas!

 

[Kylo]

Didn’t know this was a thing but will take it.

https://twitter.com/mikarantane/status/1073208153741975553?s=21

 

[NoSnowATL]

Didn’t know this was a thing but will take it.

https://twitter.com/mikarantane/status/1073208153741975553?s=21

This forecast hasn’t really changed since November. Like we are all saying our fun times starts in January maybe Mid January right now. We have 2-3 weeks of up and down weather/ temp to get through.

 

[Tarheel1]

In the active pattern we have. You just never know when a storm may pop up. Could be 10 days out 7 days out heck even 3 days out wouldn’t surprise me. But realistically it’s probably going to be January before we have a legitimate winter storm threat.


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Man, I like your enthusiasm, but the absolute most important ingredient for a good Southern winter storm is cold!! We are just not seeing a whole lot of that on our side of the world right now!

 

[Jessy89]

Man, I like your enthusiasm, but the absolute most important ingredient for a good Southern winter storm is cold!! We are just not seeing a whole lot of that on our side of the world right now!

We supposed to have a cold winter. So we will see. But isn’t warm up necessary for cold air to rebuild up in Canada before dropping back down?


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[RBR71]

I just moved a bunch of post to banter but mostly so I could test out the new mod tools..... at this juncture most if not all of that would have been just fine. Just an fyi guys and gals, thanks for allowing the test

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

TWC just showed the Christmas “ pattern “ they are seeing and they had a SE ridge and central plains trough! That just screams white Christmas!

Yeah they nailed my forecast last weekend

1: Rain
2: Rain
3: Heavy Rain
4: Rain
5: Drizzle
7: T-Storms
...
..
.

 

[Storm5]

Winter myth #3.

Yep gets overplayed every winter


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[Jimmy Hypocracy]

We supposed to have a cold winter. So we will see. But isn’t warm up necessary for cold air to rebuild up in Canada before dropping back down?


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The Big dogs hit with a pattern going in or coming out

 

[Jessy89]

The Big dogs hit with a pattern going in or coming out

That always seems to be the case. But remember the winter. I don’t remember which year. But when cold air was already in place. And Atlanta saw snow in the 20s and 1.6 inches brought Atlanta to a halt. I’d love to see a big dog when we have that type of cold locked in.


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[NoSnowATL]

That always seems to be the case. But remember the winter. I don’t remember which year. But when cold air was already in place. And Atlanta saw snow in the 20s and 1.6 inches brought Atlanta to a halt. I’d love to see a big dog when we have that type of cold locked in.


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Most of the time it snows here in ATL and it’s 65 2 days later, ATL does great during transitions. Also we see snow events when it was 70 a few days before, that’s just SE winters in a nut shell.

 

[Brick Tamland]

We were near 70 here a week before this past winter storm. Also saw temps in the 70s a week before the 2000 Carolina Crusher.

 

[SD]

I just moved a bunch of post to banter but mostly so I could test out the new mod tools..... at this juncture most if not all of that would have been just fine. Just an fyi guys and gals, thanks for allowing the test

Who said you could?

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[RBR71]

Who said you could?

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@Shawn and let's see if it works with your's too.... Lol

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

I am starting to sense a pattern. Cutters for days then we sneak a wave across Baja with split flow and a strong banana High building up top...well, I guess one storm doesn’t make it a pattern but you get the point. We’re going to be reloading this scenario all winter with bonus opportunities to sneak something inbetween gulf lows. I’m optimistic. You never know how you look until you get your picture took

@Shawn and let's see if it works with your's too.... Lol

 

[jackendrickwx]

Weather Channel seems to think we may have something brewing for Christmas Eve. Rain/snow showers

 

[DadOfJax]

Weather Channel seems to think we may have something brewing for Christmas Eve. Rain/snow showers

TWC forecasts are auto generated....pay no attention to that junk.

 

[Brick Tamland]

@Shawn and let's see if it works with your's too.... Lol

 

[Snowfan]

Weather Channel seems to think we may have something brewing for Christmas Eve. Rain/snow showers

Didn't TWC say no white Christmas? lol

 

[Storm5]

@Shawn and let's see if it works with your's too.... Lol

While y’all are moving posts I’m gonna try out my new ban button


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[RBR71]

.

While y’all are moving posts I’m gonna try out my new ban button


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[Stormlover]

Didn't TWC say no white Christmas? lol

why would you put "not telling" for location? when you talk about your weather people need to know where you are talking about, that's BS

 

[cyclogent]

now THIS is the type of look that makes the hair on my neck stand up. end of the run 6z FV3. Pretty sure this is ARCC's favorite pattern.

 

[WxWatch]

12z CMC, it's looking better and better.

 

[RollTide18]

12z CMC, it's looking better and better.

Under 200 hrs too

 

[weatherfide]

12z CMC, it's looking better and better.

Looks like a really good track for Atlanta, unfortunately, there isn' t enough cold air at critical levels for frozen precipitation. There is nice cold front coming down at the end of the run, though.