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Pattern December - Deal or No Deal?

WxWatch said:
I noticed that the 18z GFS has that secondary low that I was talking about earlier today. If the secondary low does develop, we'll need to watch out for that low as well, cause it could bring a "double dose" of wintry weather across the Carolina's and eastern/northern Georgia.
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Looked like the same low to me
 
accu35 said:
Looked like the same low to me
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That's what I thought at first, if you view the eastern map (on TT) to get a wider view, you can see a secondary low develop well off the coast of the Carolina's. The first low tracks north of Bermuda.
 
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Thought the FV3 would be good but lol nope, cutter. Just some initial snow in the NC Apps and Northern NC, that's it. Basically holding so far through today.
 
lol, it won't stop going south in the means. I guess keep going?...and then come back up a bit come game time.

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Haha gfs goes further south and fv3 goes further north. That's our good ole replacement. Good luck with this
 
GEFS is everything you want to keep trending. Ridge out west, the s/w is still trending south and stronger. The big low over the NE is trending westward, that will supply colder air and keep it suppressed or it may shear it out. Fine line there. Now if we could get it strengthen and cutoff over the gulf, we would all be happy.
 

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GEFS members do look pretty solid. I see only two that look like cutters/the FV3 solution to me. Doesn't necessarily mean it's good outside the mid-upper south though.

Things that make you go "hmm" about the FV3.
 
Without the "I want snow bias", how well has the FV3 been verifying? I am sorry for the question because I haven't been able to follow closely as of recently with tons of "real-life" issues going on. Thanks in advance!
 
Does weathermodels.com have the gefs members? I got monthly membership again yesterday and I’m still trying to remember how to run everything
 
Storm5 said:
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Seeing more members with the solid NW to SE motion. That tells me more the members are continuing to trend the NE low westward and shearing the s/w. Like I said, that is a fine line.

My gut feeling is often wrong, but Im wonder if we bust the other direction and the s/w shears out and no one but the Carolinas see anything other than showers.
 
I dont like the upstate being in the bulls eye this far out. That usually means we dont get any winter weather around here.

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Does anyone think we have legitimate winter storm for southeast. Or is the gfs pulling us in just to break are hearts?
 
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