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Pattern December - Deal or No Deal?

GaWx said:
We interrupt this wx message board for the following bulletin. Do not, repeat, do not look at the brand new Euro weeklies, nor the 12Z EPS 11-15 for that matter. For future use, I'm trying to get us a toss, like what all SouthernWx members have for the 18Z GFS, established for the weeklies. But since we don't have it as of the present time, we're unable to toss right now. Please do not shoot the friendly messenger. I'm merely doing my job of communicating. Now back to regular messaging.
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I toss when they are cold and toss when they are hot . They are wildly different from week to week . Thanks for the warning ,I won’t look now


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Storm5 said:
I toss when they are cold and toss when they are hot . They are wildly different from week to week . Thanks for the warning ,I won’t look now


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Correct, weeklies pretty much say we are having a backloaded winter( we knew that). We still have to push through MJO warm phases 3-7 which we wil but it looks like it will be mid January. All good here. We all will see snow here. No cliff jumping.
 
GaWx said:
We interrupt this wx message board for the following bulletin. Do not, repeat, do not toss the 18Z GEFS 11-16. We now return you to regular messaging,
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Can we toss the handful of frames the whole run that do not have below average temps? Or is against the toss rules?
 
Storm5 said:
No more interruptions Larry!!!! Lol
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Arcc said:
Can we toss the handful of frames the whole run that do not have below average temps? Or is against the toss rules?
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Maybe someone else will correct me, but my understanding is that that is definitely against the SouthernWx Toss Rule. Either toss the whole thing or none can be tossed. And of course no wx weenie in their right mind would toss it.
 
GaWx said:
Maybe someone else will correct me, but my understanding is that that is definitely against the SouthernWx Toss Rule. Either toss the whole thing or none can be tossed. And of course no wx weenie in their right mind would toss it.
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warm rain ...
 
Rain Cold said:
I’d like to hear Mack’s take on the SSW and the SAI before making up my mind. @Tarheel1
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I think you know where I stand on SSW! And snowcover theories! I guess as far as weeklies go, booty is in the eye of the beholder. MA don’t seem as pessimistic as GAWX0413CEEE-33AA-4317-9FA4-CD0CD550E2C0.png0413CEEE-33AA-4317-9FA4-CD0CD550E2C0.png
 
Tarheel1 said:
I think you know where I stand on SSW! And snowcover theories! I guess as far as weeklies go, booty is in the eye of the beholder. MA don’t seem as pessimistic as GAWXView attachment 9148View attachment 9148
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The MA isn't as pessimistic as GaWx because they get way more snow than the SE and can still get snow when things don't line up nearly perfectly. They are warmer than normal weeks 1-4 and near normal weeks 5-6. So, admittedly weeks 5-6 aren't bad at all. But weeks 1-4 are not what most here would want to see.
 
Legs? No GL low. Banana high building in. 50/50 low hanging out. Big ridge near Greenland. Nice ridge out west. Just need to get rid of that pesky Alaskan low. This is the 384 GFS but you could imagine if it was in NAM range! ?☹️?9E9FF276-87DB-4775-ADA7-F72D95E7B8E7.png905A3BF6-8CC9-4843-BEF7-968CF72D64B3.png
 
Not sure why our cold air would be trapped on the other side of the hemisphere, though. What gives? Shortage of bath water? Now I see why everyone was in panic mode earlier..60A66139-F58D-4F56-A1DE-C02D2B244525.png
 
Beginning to hate the acronym MJO as much as SER. Last year the SER was trying to be a player around Christmas wreaking havoc on my ski trip to WVa (thankfully it didn’t), this year it’s the MJO. Here’s to hoping this Christmas and New Years are colder and snowier than things look like they’ll be.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Legs? No GL low. Banana high building in. 50/50 low hanging out. Big ridge near Greenland. Nice ridge out west. Just need to get rid of that pesky Alaskan low. This is the 384 GFS but you could imagine if it was in NAM range! ?☹️?View attachment 9153View attachment 9152
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The people in panic mode are the same ones who will be excited when the long range models flip to cold. They have flipped back and forth the entire past few months. As far as the operational models go, I think we should ban the posting of them 240hrs+ out. Should cut down on the panic.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Not sure why our cold air would be trapped on the other side of the hemisphere, though. What gives? Shortage of bath water? Now I see why everyone was in panic mode earlier..View attachment 9154
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The nights are long, it won’t take much to get Canada cold again. Red anomalies for them, are still 20 degrees below normal for us! Our time is coming!
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Not sure why our cold air would be trapped on the other side of the hemisphere, though. What gives? Shortage of bath water? Now I see why everyone was in panic mode earlier..View attachment 9154
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Stratospheric warming, basically a PV displacement. Perhaps, the PV will be on our side of the world later this winter. It will still get cold throughout the Nation. For now, there just won't be any severe cold outbreaks.
 
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0z GFS, that ULL is something new. It may not mean anything, but still interesting to see that new feature.
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