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Pattern December - Deal or No Deal?

Oh you NCs guys have done it now. I'm calling it, 11/28 big dog hits MS,AL and Ga and you guys get skunked all of December.
It seems like climatology favors snowfall in the Deep South earlier in the winter than central/eastern NC. This wasn't just last year - If I remember correctly the Deep South saw December snowfalls three years in a row from 2008-10 when 2008 and 2009 were duds here.
 
I'd feel really good about early December in the Mid Atlantic and NE. However in the SE I'm still wondering if we're going to be cold enough. The highs coming across the north are not strong and the modeled temp departures are modest. It doesn't scream to me winter storm in the south yet. Realistically I'm keeping expectations low. But here's to hoping...

I agree too that the deep south may have a better chance as the cold filters in easier there than east of the mountains.
 
IMO, this is the first period -- of what is likely to be many -- to watch. Once the cold gets established, if a trailing wave can dig far enough southwest and/or some western energy gets involved, there is potential for a wintry event especially in the Carolinas.

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Anybody see this map that Ryan Maue posted on twitter????
DsdLszBVAAAHn8B.jpg:large
 
If there's any lingering doubt about us being in an El Nino this winter, the upcoming strong Westerly Wind Burst in the Equatorial Pacific and global +AAM w/ lots of excess westerly momentum in the subtropics (indicative of a strong subtropical jet) will erase it.

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If we're going to focus on the day 8-10 period when there's a subtle hint of a threat potentially emerging if a few other puzzle pieces fall into place, December 2000 has a case to be made being one of the stronger early winter analogs that produced something in the Carolinas.

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December 4 2000 NC Snowmap.gif
 
Is that one that Fishel was calling for a monster snow and had to stand in the fountain?
No. This is the one where he predicted and I quote: "Colossal amounts" of snow - if I remember correctly, I think he was calling for 12-16" of snow in Wake County and RDU received a Trace. Now in all fairness, this was an epic bust by NWP and NWS Raleigh has a great case study on it.

http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20001203/

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No. This is the one where he predicted and I quote: "Colossal amounts" of snow - if I remember correctly, I think he was calling for 12-16" of snow in Wake County and RDU received a Trace. Now in all fairness, this was an epic bust by NWP and NWS Raleigh has a great case study on it.

http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20001203/

View attachment 7535
Wow, that is awesome. Well, not for Raleigh but it's crazy how much the totals dropped and so quickly during each run. Weren't they calling for a storm in Charlotte at one point too?
 
Wow, that is awesome. Well, not for Raleigh but it's crazy how much the totals dropped and so quickly during each run. Weren't they calling for a storm in Charlotte at one point too?
Van Denton in Greensboro was calling for a foot of snow. I went out and bought a shovel! I jinxed it! We got partly cloudy.
 
No. This is the one where he predicted and I quote: "Colossal amounts" of snow - if I remember correctly, I think he was calling for 12-16" of snow in Wake County and RDU received a Trace. Now in all fairness, this was an epic bust by NWP and NWS Raleigh has a great case study on it.

http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20001203/

View attachment 7535

I think this one and the bust the other way with the Carolina Crusher in Jan 2000 are the reasons he started very conservative and low with the amounts, no matter what the models and indicies show, and adjusts as the storm unfolds.
 
I think this one and the bust the other way with the Carolina Crusher in Jan 2000 are the reasons he started very conservative and low with the amounts, no matter what the models and indicies show, and adjusts as the storm unfolds.
I agree, both storms probably taught a lot of Mets in the Carolina's a thing or two about how easily things can turn on your forecast around these parts. I am sure the Carolina crusher prompted a lot of Mets to assume that the storm in early Dec, 2000 would behave the same as the Jan 2000 event and moisture would creep further West than what the last second shift Eastward was showing.
 
So all this good talk about first week of December, are we expecting the models to pop up a storm? Because I'm watching every run thinking something gonna come up
 
Did you expect anything different? I think he is always going to go with the average no matter what. Then when we have a legit threat, he and the rest at WRAL will start low and change as the storm unfolds. They always play it super conservative, and it is annoying sometimes. Meanwhile, every other met, like DT, Huffman, and WxSouth, are calling for above average snow here.

Maybe Webber should take over for WRAL when Fish retires.
A local met in Baton Rouge, Josh Eachus, has his forecasts done the same way. He basically overviews the Nino Nina trends and forecasts from that. He doesn't bring up any other factors.

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Agree this could be an opportunity *IF* the trend towards more separation between the initial northern stream wave -- which ushers in a potent cold front -- and a follow up northern stream wave and a southern stream wave continues. We need that first wave to separate and get out ahead of the second northern wave so that 1) we have the cold air in place out ahead of the system and 2) keep it suppressed by acting as a 50/50 low. There is also some potential for a phase/interaction between northern and southern streams if the stars truly align.

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