packfan98
Moderator
The first week looks to have some potential. I feel like this specific threat should go into the December thread instead of the Winter or November threads. Let's see where it goes.
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Brick Tamland
Guest
NorthGaWinter4
Member
Bring the Mojo pack!!
whatalife
Moderator
The first week looks to have some potential. I feel like this specific threat should go into the December thread instead of the Winter or November threads. Let's see where it goes.
I think E13 might of skewed the mean there and hopefully fun times are ahead.
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I've wanted a snow in December (Before or on Christmas) since I was a kid. Hoping somehow it happens this year.
Hate the thread title. #boycotting
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NoSnowATL
Member
E13. Haha thanks for making my day.I think E13 might of skewed the mean there and hopefully fun times are ahead.
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So Greg Fishel released his winter forecast yesterday. It was a letdown, though it should not have been. Essentially focused only on the strength of the upcoming El Nino to make his forecast. Acknowledged that he thought the NOAA forecast was ok and if he was forced to take a stance, given the absence of any real compelling signal either way, he would go slightly cooler in the east and go for a range of 5-8" of snowfall for RDU. I think 7"ish is our average. This kind of a presentation is essentially worthless and a waste of time to even prepare.
Kylo
Member
EPS looks interesting for that Dec 3-5 period. Which is what E13 shows above.
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Brick Tamland
Guest
Did you expect anything different? I think he is always going to go with the average no matter what. Then when we have a legit threat, he and the rest at WRAL will start low and change as the storm unfolds. They always play it super conservative, and it is annoying sometimes. Meanwhile, every other met, like DT, Huffman, and WxSouth, are calling for above average snow here.
Maybe Webber should take over for WRAL when Fish retires.
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Kylo
Member
What a great string of tweets, must read.
Nope, I knew he would toe the middle of the road. I hoped he would have at least talked about several of the variables that are liable to impact the pattern this winter. His sole area of focus was the strength of El Nino. Nothing about the type of El Nino, the propensity for blocking, antecedent autumnal conditions, the stratosphere, or solar implications, not to mention the vast scope of non-US seasonal models showing a virtual unanimous signal for a colder east. I understand not having the time to go into great detail on these things. I do. But the job of a forecaster is not to look at model output or other forecasts and simply repackage and restate and relay that. Instead, it is to research, assimilate data, and using your years of experience, produce a forecast that is worth something more than what I can pull up on Tropical Tidbits.
packfan98
Moderator
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Brick Tamland
Guest
I still like Dynamite December.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I'd seriously love to cash in on a big dog in early December because El Nino winter climatology would favor a lot more where that came from later in the winter (even against long-term climatology)
packfan98
Moderator
It would be very exiting for most of us to hit our averages before Christmas and play with house money the rest of the winter with loads of potential for Jan/Feb. Not too dissimilar to last winter for those who got the big storm in December.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Unless you've constructed a very long-term climatology over a much larger than just RDU or the Triangle proper, you're definitely not going to see a significant ENSO footprint on seasonal snowfall at least with much confidence because internal variability is way too large and gets even larger when you're looking at only one point. I'm hoping that the 125-year climatology I'm working on for NC will get us closer to the answer but there's a good chance it doesn't and there either aren't even enough samples even w/ a record of that length or perhaps the basic state climate has changed so much that the older analogs aren't as relevant (some adjustments could be made to make them relevant again however). The other option would be to use a bootstrap analysis w/ a climate model to simulate thousands of time what seasonal snowfall would look like in the SE US, however we'd run into issues wrt determining whether the climate accurately hindcasts past & present snowfall variability and will have a sufficient resolution to capture local, mesoscale snowfall variability that most of us on the forum actually care about.
Avalanche
Member
You're absolutely right. They do that in every winter weather situation no matter what other factors or forecasts may show. No doubt Webber is fit for the job, my worry would be WRAL would dull down the insight Webber provides and it would just be status quo. I would rather have him here unrestricted.
I like the signs I am seeing for this December (and the winter as a whole). This year is probably going to be nothing like the last El Niño December, 2015, which barely even resembled a winter month. I watched WRAL's O-Fishel winter forecast last night and it appeared as if the strongest El Niños (1997-98 and 2015-16) both resulted in fairly mild and below average snowfall winters. 2 winters is a small sample size but it is interesting that Super Niños do not seem to feature the same cooler than normal winters that weaker Niños do.
I would say 2002 might be a good analog for this December. 2002-03 was a similar weak-moderate Niño that was more central based. 2002 had the big ice storm in early December, and I wouldn't be surprised that if we do get a winter threat early it would be more of a sleet/ice threat than a snow threat.
I would say 2002 might be a good analog for this December. 2002-03 was a similar weak-moderate Niño that was more central based. 2002 had the big ice storm in early December, and I wouldn't be surprised that if we do get a winter threat early it would be more of a sleet/ice threat than a snow threat.
Oh you NCs guys have done it now. I'm calling it, 11/28 big dog hits MS,AL and Ga and you guys get skunked all of December.
It seems like climatology favors snowfall in the Deep South earlier in the winter than central/eastern NC. This wasn't just last year - If I remember correctly the Deep South saw December snowfalls three years in a row from 2008-10 when 2008 and 2009 were duds here.
SnowNiner
Member
I'd feel really good about early December in the Mid Atlantic and NE. However in the SE I'm still wondering if we're going to be cold enough. The highs coming across the north are not strong and the modeled temp departures are modest. It doesn't scream to me winter storm in the south yet. Realistically I'm keeping expectations low. But here's to hoping...
I agree too that the deep south may have a better chance as the cold filters in easier there than east of the mountains.
I agree too that the deep south may have a better chance as the cold filters in easier there than east of the mountains.
IMO, this is the first period -- of what is likely to be many -- to watch. Once the cold gets established, if a trailing wave can dig far enough southwest and/or some western energy gets involved, there is potential for a wintry event especially in the Carolinas.
Kylo
Member
Nothing but Atlantic ridges past several December’s but it looks like we may flip the script, to start at least.
packfan98
Moderator
Anybody see this map that Ryan Maue posted on twitter????
Storm5
Member
Great way to start a thread !!!
At least we know it will change at 00z tonight and as deeee teeeeeee says “ this 100 percent -------- “
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At least we know it will change at 00z tonight and as deeee teeeeeee says “ this 100 percent -------- “
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
If there's any lingering doubt about us being in an El Nino this winter, the upcoming strong Westerly Wind Burst in the Equatorial Pacific and global +AAM w/ lots of excess westerly momentum in the subtropics (indicative of a strong subtropical jet) will erase it.
Jessy89
Member
Gfs is not promising for a southeast winter storm early December.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
If we're going to focus on the day 8-10 period when there's a subtle hint of a threat potentially emerging if a few other puzzle pieces fall into place, December 2000 has a case to be made being one of the stronger early winter analogs that produced something in the Carolinas.
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Brick Tamland
Guest
Is that one that Fishel was calling for a monster snow and had to stand in the fountain?
No. This is the one where he predicted and I quote: "Colossal amounts" of snow - if I remember correctly, I think he was calling for 12-16" of snow in Wake County and RDU received a Trace. Now in all fairness, this was an epic bust by NWP and NWS Raleigh has a great case study on it.
http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20001203/
Wow, that is awesome. Well, not for Raleigh but it's crazy how much the totals dropped and so quickly during each run. Weren't they calling for a storm in Charlotte at one point too?
packfan98
Moderator
Van Denton in Greensboro was calling for a foot of snow. I went out and bought a shovel! I jinxed it! We got partly cloudy.
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Brick Tamland
Guest
I think this one and the bust the other way with the Carolina Crusher in Jan 2000 are the reasons he started very conservative and low with the amounts, no matter what the models and indicies show, and adjusts as the storm unfolds.
I agree, both storms probably taught a lot of Mets in the Carolina's a thing or two about how easily things can turn on your forecast around these parts. I am sure the Carolina crusher prompted a lot of Mets to assume that the storm in early Dec, 2000 would behave the same as the Jan 2000 event and moisture would creep further West than what the last second shift Eastward was showing.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Disregarding p-type output & specifics, in a holistic, large-scale sense the 12z Euro definitely looks halfway interesting early next week
This is our shot:
A local met in Baton Rouge, Josh Eachus, has his forecasts done the same way. He basically overviews the Nino Nina trends and forecasts from that. He doesn't bring up any other factors.
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Agree this could be an opportunity *IF* the trend towards more separation between the initial northern stream wave -- which ushers in a potent cold front -- and a follow up northern stream wave and a southern stream wave continues. We need that first wave to separate and get out ahead of the second northern wave so that 1) we have the cold air in place out ahead of the system and 2) keep it suppressed by acting as a 50/50 low. There is also some potential for a phase/interaction between northern and southern streams if the stars truly align.
